Ramblings: Saturday Trades; Heiskanen Signs Long Term; Price, Tarasenko, Domi Unprotected? (July 18)

Ian Gooding

2021-07-18

Of course, the biggest news of the day was the numerous last-minute trades that teams made before rosters would be frozen for the Seattle expansion draft. And of course, we had you covered.

Fantasy Take: Flyers Land Ellis; Glass to Nashville & Patrick to Vegas

Fantasy Impact: Maple Leafs Acquire Jared McCann

Fantasy Take: Adin Hill On His Way To San Jose

Between other trades and other news, there was plenty to discuss, so I'll focus on that here.

It's a team effort, but could it backfire? Carey Price has reportedly decided to waive his no-movement clause in the hopes that Jake Allen is not claimed. With a modest $2.875 million cap hit for two more seasons, Allen was considered to be one of the top goalie candidates to be claimed. When push comes to shove, I think there are better ways that the Kraken can allocate their cap money and not be saddled with his enormous contact. I wouldn't bet on him being claimed. But…

Price played his junior hockey for the Tri-City Americans, who are based in Washington state. His wife is also reportedly from the area, and Seattle is also closer to his offseason home in BC than Montreal is. Those details should add enough intrigue to make this a very real possibility. If the Kraken do claim him, the absolute meltdown that Habs fans would have would be epic, especially fresh off their recent playoff run. Yet if you consider how that contract might age for the Habs, it might not be the worst thing to happen to them.

Another scenario could involve the Kraken claiming Price, then flipping him to another team in need of a starting goalie. I don't see that happening, simply because of the contract. In fact, Seattle is the team most able to take on the contract. Looks like the drama for this expansion draft just got turned up a notch, and I’m here for it.

It looks like the Blues couldn't find any takers for Vladimir Tarasenko and his $7.5 million cap hit. According to Frank Seravalli, the Blues have exposed Tarasenko in the expansion draft, protecting Ivan Barbashev instead. That means the Blues are willing to give up Tarasenko and his entire contract for nothing, which would also mean that trading Tarasenko elsewhere would probably force St. Louis to retain salary unless they are willing to sell for pennies on the dollar. Either way, it appears that the relationship is broken to the point that Tarasenko will likely be with another team when the 2021-22 season starts.

Remember that the buyer beware sign on Tarasenko isn't just in regard to his contract. Tarasenko has undergone three shoulder surgeries and may not be the same goal-scorer he once was. With just four goals in 24 games following his return, there would be something to that. Yet since Seattle is starting from the ground up, claiming Tarasenko wouldn't be as risky, and it could provide them with a possible first-line forward right out of the gate. Do you know what I think has a zero percent chance of happening? The Kraken claiming both Price and Tarasenko.

The Kraken will likely be able to select Vince Dunn from the Blues instead if Tarasenko's contract and injury history are too risky for them.

According to Darren Dreger, Max Domi will not be on the Blue Jackets' protected list. Domi struggled in his only season in Columbus, scoring 24 points in 54 games. His points-per-game average has now slid for two consecutive seasons, from 0.88 PTS/GP in 2018-19 to 0.62 PTS/GP in 2019-20 to just 0.44 PTS/GP this past season. Perhaps the departure of John Tortorella could help Domi, but Domi is expected to miss the first month or two of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery anyway. Eric Robinson would likely be protected as a result.

The Stars took care of business on Saturday, signing Miro Heiskanen to an eight-year contract with an AAV of $8.45 million. This deal will likely serve as a precedent for other unsigned young defensemen such as Cale Makar, Rasmus Dahlin, and Quinn Hughes (although it sounds like Hughes will be signed to a bridge deal).

Heiskanen appears to be an example of a defenseman that is more valuable in real life than in fantasy, but that's only because he has Norris Trophy upside. In his three NHL seasons, his highest regular-season point pace has been at a half-point per game, which has been roughly his average over the past two seasons. During the Stars' 2020 playoff run, he finished with nearly a point per game (26 points in 27 games), so perhaps that is a glimpse of what he is capable of. As it stands now, John Klingberg averaged more power-play time (3:01 PPTOI) than Heiskanen (2:45 PPTOI) and also finished with a higher point total than Heiskanen (36 points to 27 points).

The Canucks took care of a positional need right at the roster freeze deadline, acquiring Jason Dickinson from Dallas. Although Dickinson hasn't been a huge scorer, he fills a need for the Canucks as a potential third-line center with size (6-2, 200 lbs.) The Canucks will likely move on from Brandon Sutter, whose significant contract has finally expired. As well, Dickinson being protected likely means that Seattle will have its choice of Zach MacEwen, Kole Lind, Jonah Gadjovich, and Matthew Highmore at forward.

There were rumblings that the Canucks were going to move J.T. Miller down to the 3C role below Elias Pettersson and Bo Horvat in an attempt to spread out scoring and because Miller likes to play center. However, this trade should mean that Miller is back on the wing, possibly with Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser on the Lotto Line (6-40-9 – get it? Only if you're in Canada). And Dickinson isn't being brought in to be a 4C, because that is Jay Beagle's spot.

The Stars receive something for Dickinson, who could have been left unprotected in the expansion draft. It appears that Blake Comeau, Andrew Cogliano, and Jamie Oleksiak are the strongest candidates to be selected by Seattle. Ben Bishop is also an option, if the Kraken want to take a chance that he is injury-free. However, the Kraken might have their eye on another goalie.

If the Kraken do select Chris Driedger, then I'll get at least one correct guess on my initial expansion draft list. With all the recent player movement, I think I'll have to redraft my team one more time. If I can find the time.

In a trade that could only be made in the NHL, the Islanders sent Andrew Ladd and picks to the Coyotes for… nothing. Not even future considerations? Of course, the benefit for the Islanders of receiving nothing is that Arizona will now take on the final two seasons of Ladd's contract. Ladd did not play a single NHL game in 2020-21 and only played four games in 2019-20. Yet apparently Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong views Ladd as a "culture changer/leader," meaning that he may do more than just occupy cap space. So maybe he'll get into some games. Or the Coyotes will just pocket the picks, like they do when they lend cap space to other teams.

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Fresh off a Stanley Cup, Barclay Goodrow will be moving on from the Lightning. His rights were traded to the Rangers for a 2022 seventh-round pick. Goodrow is still a UFA with an expired contract, but the Rangers will have the opportunity to negotiate a contract with him before other teams do.

Later in the day, the Islanders signed Andy Greene to a one-year contract. As mentioned yesterday, this gives the Islanders the defenseman that they need to expose in the expansion draft after trading Nick Leddy.

Fantasy Take: Red Wings Trade for Leddy

According to his agent, Jaroslav Halak is expected to become a free agent on July 28. Halak was demoted to third string during the playoffs behind Tuukka Rask and Jeremy Swayman, so he already did not appear to be in the Bruins' future plans. Rask is also a UFA who will also be sidelined until the new year after hip surgery, so the Bruins will need to shop for at least one veteran goalie to help Swayman. Expect Halak to land somewhere as a veteran backup/1A.

Even after all the news I could find, I'm not done today. Here are the top Frozen Tools searches from the past week:

There are some obvious newsmakers and Stanley Cup Final holdovers on this list, which would make sense as to why they are popular searches. However, I'll pick two names in particular and explain why they should be of interest to fantasy owners.

Brady Tkachuk

I'm surprised I don't receive any comments about Tkachuk being ranked so high in the Top 100 Roto Rankings (although I'm probably inviting some by saying that). Points pace wise, his comparables in 2020-21 were teammate Josh Norris, Darnell Nurse, Brayden Schenn, and Yanni Gourde (0.64 PTS/GP). Tkachuk will only be turning 22 just before the 2021-22 season starts, but he will already be starting his fourth NHL season. Maybe we finally see a jump from the 0.62-0.64 PTS/GP he has consistently ranged between over his first three NHL seasons.

The reason Tkachuk is ranked so high in roto is not because of scoring. Peripherals are where he separates himself from the competition. Let's start with shots, where only Auston Matthews had more shots than Tkachuk (220 SOG) in 2020-21. To put it another way, Tkachuk takes more shots than sharpshooters like Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid. Maybe a few more of those shots are eventually converted to goals, but at least we know Tkachuk is a killer in that one category.

Then it's on to hits, where only Radko Gudas delivered more hits than Tkachuk (248). Usually the names near the top of this list aren't top-level scoring options. To put this into perspective, no player with more points than Tkachuk had more than 135 hits. He's singlehandedly going to win that category for you, particularly in shallower leagues.

As for penalty minutes, only five players had more than Tkachuk (69 PIM). Again, scoring options are harder to find near the top of this list, although Tom Wilson had nearly as many points as Tkachuk with 27 more penalty minutes. Between hits and penalty minutes, Tkachuk will take care of the bangers portion of your bangers league. Just make sure your other high picks can take care of the scoring, in case that doesn't pick up as much as you'd like.

There are other categories where Tkachuk is not as dominant. For instance, negative double-digit plus/minus for each of his three seasons. Or no more than 10 power-play points in each of those three seasons. But if you own him, you look for other players who can help you fill those categories. Because he'll win you the other categories that I've identified.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Bertuzzi's name recently surfaced in trade rumors, with the Leafs reportedly interested in him as a possible replacement for Zach Hyman. Gee, if that doesn't get the profile clicks, then nothing will.

From my perspective, this one might be a preview of Bubble Keeper Week in some sense, as Bertuzzi is currently on my keeper team and I'll need to make a decision about him. Due to a back injury, Bertuzzi was held to just nine games, but he did score five goals and seven points in those nine games. Maybe the Wings could have used him, since they had so much trouble scoring.

Bertuzzi's absence had an effect on Dylan Larkin, as Larkin also had seven points over those nine games but then just 16 points in 35 games afterward. In 2019-20 with Bertuzzi as a regular linemate, Larkin scored at a 0.75 PTS/GP pace. But without him, Larkin wasn't even a half-point-per-game player. Keep this one in the memory bank if Bertuzzi is in fact moved, but his departure could hurt Larkin.

Back to Bertuzzi's status. He is expected to be ready for training camp, so he could be a sneaky late-round pick in many leagues, considering that he'll probably be back on the top line and first-unit power-play (assuming he stays in Detroit). However, at age 26, Bertuzzi could be shopped before future projected Wings core players like Filip Zadina (21), Moritz Seider (20), and Lucas Raymond (19) hit their prime. 

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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