Ramblings – NHL Protection Lists Are Finalized – Dobber Takes a Krak at Drafting Seattle (July 19)
Dobber
2021-07-19
Released last week and now updated with the Mock Draft: the highly-acclaimed DobberHockey Fantasy Prospects Report. The 15th annual. Over 450 drafted prospects are profiled with their upside, likelihood, wait time and certainty. Another 100 draftees for the upcoming (2021) NHL Draft also profiled, with comparables and complete with charts, rankings and the Mock. Get it here.
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NHL teams submitted their protected lists on Saturday. Seattle's list of players available to be taken is now finalized and they are spending several days putting their future team together. Right now everybody is rushing over to Cap Friendly to draft their favorite potential Seattle roster.
Nobody will be correct. In fact, while some lucky people may nail 20 of the 30 names that get selected, some of those 20 players will never put on the Seattle uniform. There will be so many side deals in place impacting how this goes, that it changes everything. The Seattle Kraken will be bribed into laying off of selecting players. They will be bribed into taking other players so that they can be flipped right away.
Example: In the 2017 expansion draft Vegas got Alex Tuch and a third in exchange for selecting Erik Haula. They got Shea Theodore in exchange for selecting Clayton Stoner. They were allowed to take Jonathan Marchessault in exchange for also taking Reilly Smith. For taking Jason Garrison, the Golden Knights were given Nikita Gusev. Columbus asked Vegas to take David Clarkson's contract and gave them a first-round pick and made William Karlsson available (he would have been anyway, likely). In the end, out of the 30 players actually selected in the expansion draft itself, just 14 of them (by my count) played a role on the team that year. The rest were pretty much pieces on the board to be shuffled around for prospects and picks.
So we can pick our best team, but we don't know what is going on behind the scenes.
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But that doesn't mean we still can't have fun with it! I'm going to pick my best team, and I'm also going to try (in vain) to get inside the head of Ron Francis and speculate on deals, using that to pick the "real" team.
First of all, I will not be considering any players about to become a UFA. I do not believe in wasting assets and an expansion pick is an asset. For my team I will be drafting a strong, entertaining roster that will put bums in the seats and leaving a ton of cap space on the table to go after Gabriel Landeskog or Dougie Hamilton.
Anaheim
Key Names – Adam Henrique, Danton Heinen, Josh Mahura, Haydn Fleury, Jacob Larsson
My Pick – Haydn Fleury. I won't be taking many stay-at-home defensemen and I'll need at least a couple.
Seattle's Pick – Kevin Shattenkirk. Anaheim will bribe them with a good draft pick if they take him. Since the options aren't great anyway, the pick may be more appealing.
Arizona
Key Names – Christian Fischer, Josef Korenar. And yes, Michael Bunting is available, but he'll be a UFA in a week.
My Pick – Christian Fischer
Seattle's Pick – Christian Fischer
Boston
Key Names – Ondrej Kase, Nick Ritchie, Jeremy Lauzon, Jakub Zboril
My Pick – Nick Ritchie
Seattle's Pick – Ondrej Kase – I think Boston incentivizes Seattle to do this. I think the Bruins really want to keep their defensemen and they also believe Ritchie is a budding power forward finally coming into his own. Qualifying the injury-prone Kase, an RFA, will also be costly.
Buffalo
Key Names – Jeff Skinner, Zemgus Girgensons, William Borgen
My Pick – William Borgen
Seattle's Pick – William Borgen. I think Buffalo tries to offer Seattle pick/prospect to take Skinner, but I think Seattle ends up wanting too much and so they'll take the only player worth taking.
Calgary
Key Names – Matthew Phillips, Glenn Gawdin, Mark Giordano, Oliver Kylington, Tyler Parsons
My Pick – Matthew Phillips
Seattle's Pick – Glenn Gawdin – because Phillips is only 5-7 and the size bias will strike again. On a side note, Calgary gives Seattle a pick to not choose Giordano. They take it, but wouldn't have taken Giordano anyway.
Carolina
Key Names – Nino Niederreiter, Jake Gardiner, Jake Bean
My Pick – Jake Bean
Seattle's Pick – Nino Niederreiter, because Carolina gives up a second-round pick plus prospect Dominik Bokk in exchange for laying off of Bean.
Chicago
Key Names – Adam Gaudette, Nikita Zadorov, Collin Delia
My Pick – Adam Gaudette
Seattle's Pick – Adam Gaudette
Colorado
Key Names – Joonas Donskoi, J.T. Compher, Erik Johnson
My Pick – J.T. Compher
Seattle's Pick – J.T. Compher
Columbus
Key Names – Max Domi, Kevin Stenlund, Gabriel Carlsson
My Pick – Kevin Stenlund
Seattle's Pick – Gabriel Carlsson
Dallas
Key Names – Adam Mascherin, Joel L'Esperance
My Pick – Adam Mascherin. The options here are horrible. Well done, Dallas.
Seattle's Pick – Adam Mascherin.
Detroit
Key Names – Vladislav Namestnikov, Evgeny Svechnikov, Troy Stecher, Christian Djoos, Dennis Cholowski
My Pick – Dennis Cholowski
Seattle's Pick – Troy Stecher. Because NHL GM's never swing for the upside, they always play it safe.
Edmonton
Key Names – James Neal, Tyler Benson, Oscar Klefbom
My Pick – Oscar Klefbom
Seattle's Pick – James Neal. Edmonton gives Seattle Tyler Benson plus a third-round pick to take Neal over Klefbom.
Florida
Key Names – Frank Vatrano, Noel Acciari, Aleksi Saarela, Lucas Carlsson, Sam Montembault
My Pick – Lucas Carlsson
Seattle's Pick – UFA Chris Driedger, and Florida will give them a middle-round draft pick in '22 in exchange for laying off Saarela, Carlsson and Acciari.
Los Angeles
Key Names – Brendan Lemieux, Kale Clague, Carl Grundstrom. I am stunned that the Kings protected Lias Andersson over Lemieux.
My Pick – Kale Clague
Seattle's Pick – Carl Grundstrom. The Kings give Seattle Tyler Madden so that they take Grundstrom and leave them Lemieux and Clague.
Minnesota
Key Names – Kaapo Kahkonen. To me, protecting Cam Talbot over 2019-20 AHL Goalie of the Year Kahkonen is so ludicrous that there has to be more to this story. Has to.
My Pick – Kahkonen
Seattle's Pick – Mason Shaw. Minnesota will give Seattle Adam Beckman and a first-round draft pick to lay off Kahkonen.
Montreal
Key Names – Carey Price, Jonathan Drouin, Shea Weber. Weber is out for the season (likely) with several injuries, and now news has come out that Price has issues with both his hip and his knee. The knee may require surgery.
My Pick – Carey Price. I don't care about the injuries. They want to scare me off – good luck with that. I'm getting Seattle's version of Fleury right here and now. The face of the franchise. And I don't care if I have to sit on him for an entire year and I don't care about the cap hit and I don't care about his age. In fact, the potential for a year on LTIR is even appealing. I take Price and put him on all my billboards. I pay Price his $11 million signing bonus, and I tell Marc Bergevin – "Nice try."
Seattle's Pick – Drouin. We don't know how long Drouin is out for (personal reasons). But if it's serious, we will know just how serious based on the package given to the Kraken for taking him. If they give nothing, then Drouin is fine and will play. If they give Seattle a good pick and prospect, then we'll know Drouin's immediate future is questionable. What I do believe, however, is that Seattle will be scared off of Price by his injuries.
Nashville
Key Names – Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, Calle Jarnkrok, Yakov Trenin, Connor Ingram
My Pick – Connor Ingram
Seattle's Pick – Connor Ingram. Although Seattle is tempted by both Jarnkrok and Trenin. Ingram is a quality goaltender prospect.
New Jersey
Key Names – Andreas Johnsson, Nick Merkley, PK Subban, Will Butcher
My Pick – Nick Merkley
Seattle's Pick – Andreas Johnsson
NY Islanders
Key Names – Jordan Eberle, Josh Bailey, Kieffer Bellows. This is a weird one because the Isles actually protected Matt Martin. Like there was a danger of losing him.
My Pick – Josh Bailey. Just to punish Lou Lamoriello for being stupid.
Seattle's Pick – Kieffer Bellows.
NY Rangers
Key Names – Julien Gauthier, Colin Blackwell, Anthony DeAngelo
My Pick – Julien Gauthier
Seattle's Pick – Colin Blackwell. The Rangers give Seattle Zac Jones so that they lay off Gauthier.
Ottawa
Key Names – Evgeni Dadonov, Chris Tierney, Josh Brown, Matt Murray. I found it odd that they wasted a protection slot on Logan Brown. Brown is coming off a terrible year, is injury prone and wants out.
My Pick – Chris Tierney
Seattle's Pick – Vitali Abramov. Ottawa protects Brown because they figure they can dangle him to Seattle in exchange for Seattle taking Dadonov's contract. Seattle rejects this idea, asking for more. Ottawa balks and Seattle ends up taking their version of Vegas's Gusev. Abramov is playing in the KHL for the next two years. If he becomes a star over there, he'll come back with Gusev-like trade value. If he doesn't, then no real harm done.
Philadelphia
Key Names – Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, Shayne Gostisbehere
My Pick – Shayne Gostisbehere. The other two contracts are too big and those players are expected to decline (Voracek seems to be already). Gostisbehere has shown signs of playing like an NHLer again since his last knee surgery.
Seattle's Pick – Gostisbehere. The Flyers give the Kraken Jay O'Brien and a middle-round pick so they take Ghost off their hands. Honestly, they probably wouldn't need to as I think the Kraken have already scouted him. But they will anyway. Ghost was productive in limited minutes despite Erik Gustafsson taking much of his key ice time in the first half.
Pittsburgh
Key Names – Jason Zucker, Brandon Tanev, Marcus Pettersson, Zach Aston-Reese. The decisions here were weird. They could have left Mike Matheson exposed and his $6.5M cap hit and protected seven forwards. Matheson will pan out (I believe it), but as things stand now that cap hit is gross and Seattle wouldn't have touched it.
My Pick – Marcus Pettersson
Seattle's Pick – Pettersson. I think Pittsburgh would like to pay Seattle not to take this guy, but honestly they are very low on assets. The prospect cupboards are quite bare.
San Jose
Key Names – Ryan Donato, Alex True, Martin Jones, Christian Jaros, Dylan Gambrell
My Pick – Ryan Donato
Seattle's Pick – Dylan Gambrell. They probably don't like Donato's inconsistency.
St. Louis
Key Names – Vladimir Tarasenko, Sammy Blais, Vince Dunn, Ville Husso
My Pick – Vladimir Tarasenko. Price and Tarasenko will be the heart of my marketing for the next three years.
Seattle's Pick – Vince Dunn. Husso will be tempting, and it's possible the Blues give Seattle an incentive not to take Dunn.
Tampa Bay
Key Names – Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn, Alex Barre-Boulet, Cal Foote
My Pick – Alex Barre-Boulet
Seattle's Pick – Tyler Johnson. Tampa gives them Hugo Alnefelt and a third-round pick so that will take Johnson.
Toronto
Key Names – Alex Kerfoot, Jared McCann, Pierre Engvall, Travis Dermott
My Pick – Jared McCann.
Seattle's Pick – Alex Kerfoot. The Leafs give them Mac Hollowell and a fourth-round pick in exchange for taking Kerfoot and laying off Dermott and McCann.
Vancouver
Key Names – Jake Virtanen, Kole Lind, Zack MacEwan, Braden Holtby
My Pick – Kole Lind
Seattle's Pick – Kole Lind
Washington
Key Names – Conor Sheary, Justin Schultz, Brenden Dillon, Vitek Vanecek
My Pick – Vitek Vanecek
Seattle's Pick – Vitek Vanecek
Winnipeg
Key Names – Mason Appleton, Dylan Demelo
My Pick – Mason Appleton
Seattle's Pick – Mason Appleton
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The Dobber Kraken
Here is the team I came up with strictly based on the players I prefer and not factoring in any kind of incentive for laying off or taking certain guys
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The Seattle Kraken
In addition to this team, based on the fake deals I guessed at above, the Kraken add the following draft picks (years may vary): 1st (from MIN), 2nd (from ANA), 2nd (from CAR), 3rd (from TBL), 3rd (from BOS), 3rd (from CGY), 3rd (from EDM), 4th (from FLA), 4th (from TOR), 5th (from PHI) – 10 picks in all.
And they add the following prospects: Dominik Bokk, Tyler Benson, Tyler Madden, Adam Beckman, Zac Jones, Jay O'Brien, Hugo Alnefelt, Mac Hollowell – eight prospects in all.
Here is the team I picked for the Seattle Kraken after factoring in all the “bribes”…
Honestly, I'll be over the moon with joy if I get even 12 of these players right and correctly guess within two of the total picks they acquire, plus nail just two of the prospects I listed. But it was a fun exercise.
Next week I'll look at the potential William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault of this team – with the odds for each.
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See you next Monday.