Ramblings: Draft Day 2, Makar Signs, More Trades, Panthers Forwards, Hart Being Helped Out? (July 25)
Ian Gooding
2021-07-25
Rounds 2 through 7 of the NHL Entry Draft were completed on Saturday. In case you missed it, Hadi Kalakeche provided a recap and grades for the first-round picks in this week's The Journey. He provided a ton of content here, and so very quickly. Look out for a recap of Rounds 2 through 7 from him in next weekend's Journey.
Don't forget to purchase the Fantasy Prospects Report for more on each prospect, as well as top 10 lists for overall fantasy drafts and by position for each draft-eligible prospect. I know those lists will help me make my entry draft pick in my dynasty league (I have the 10th pick).
Here is a list of each pick that was selected on Saturday. Apologies if you're reading on a small screen.
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The Cale Makar contract was finally taken care of on Saturday. The Avalanche signed their young star defenseman to a six-year contract with a cap hit of $9 million. Compare that to Seth Jones receiving $9.5 million over eight years, and it's easy to figure out which defenseman is more valuable in salary cap leagues. Obviously there's more to projecting what a fair amount is for defensemen than scoring, but the $9 million seems to be better value for Makar than a similar number is for Jones, both in salary cap leagues and real life.
Teams get into trouble when they reward players for past performance over than future performance, particularly when that player is at or approaching an age when a decline usually occurs. I'm not saying Jones (who is turning 27 in October) is old by any means, but before the salary cap was implemented, Blackhawks fans would have been pumped about acquiring a defenseman like Jones. Now all that excitement is clouded by the contract.
Back to Makar. To find out exactly where he is ranked in roto leagues, check out the Top 100 Roto Rankings for July. The Top 200 Cap League Skater Rankings will also be up later today.
One other Makar note: The Avalanche drafted his brother Taylor with the 220th overall pick. Lots of new brother acts in NHL organizations now.
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Day 2 of the draft was a little quieter in terms of trades, but there were still two deals that could be of consequence to fantasy owners.
First, the Cam Atkinson for Jakub Voracek swap, which I wrote a Fantasy Take about. The trade fit what the two teams seem to be doing right now: Philadelphia trying to move cap space to improve its defense, with Columbus ensuring it reaches the cap floor while trying to get younger.
Here is the Flyers' revamped defense:
| LH DEFENSE | RH DEFENSE |
| IVAN PROVOROV | RYAN ELLIS |
| TRAVIS SANHEIM | RASMUS RISTOLAINEN |
| CAM YORK | JUSTIN BRAUN |
| EGOR ZAMULA | NATE PROSSER |
After Rasmus Ristolainen was traded, someone told me they thought the Flyers' upgrades on defense would help the fantasy value of Carter Hart. I'll put it this way: I think Hart will make a decent value pick next season. After being on average the third goalie drafted in Yahoo leagues, Hart might have been fantasy hockey's biggest bust. If you were a Hart owner, I won't remind you; but if not, you can click on his name to look up the stats on Frozen Tools. Hart is also only 22, which is still rather young for a goalie, especially one who has already played three NHL seasons.
On Frozen Tools, did you know that you can also sort by age? There were only two goalies under 22 that played this past season. One was Cayden Primeau, who despite already playing games in two seasons appears to be another two seasons away from a full-time NHL roster spot, since that's when Jake Allen's contract runs out (and we all know that Carey Price's contract is even longer). The other was Spencer Knight, who in a small sample size already looks like he'll justify his 2019 first-round pick while likely being drafted ahead of Hart in single-season fantasy leagues.
Based on last season, I could see Hart being selected after pick 100 in many single-season leagues. And since goalie values can wildly fluctuate from one season to the next, Hart could easily be on many bounce-back lists.
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Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have moved out Nick Foligno, David Savard, Seth Jones, and Cam Atkinson from the trade deadline to today. That's two top-9 forwards and two top-4 defensemen. In the process they've brought in Jake Bean, Adam Boqvist, and two additional first-round picks in this year's draft (although losing a second-round pick for Bean). And of course Voracek, who is much older than the rest of the group. There isn't going to be a ton of fantasy value coming out of Columbus this season, but at least they have a plan for the future.
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One team that is oozing with fantasy goodness is the Florida Panthers. They added Sam Reinhart to that group in the day’s other major trade, which was first leaked by the hockey insiders late Friday night but not formally completed until Saturday. I took care of that Fantasy Take as well.
Maybe it's the offseason, but I'm starting to use the Frozen Tools Depth Charts more and more to see what certain teams will look like. Below is the Panthers forward attack as of today, which might shed some light on some of the "Players This Helps/Hurts" that I had chosen (or maybe muddy it further, I don't know). I've added Reinhart in at right wing, as well as removing UFAs Alexander Wennberg and Nikita Gusev. This is just the depth chart, not what the actual lines will look like.
| LEFT WING | CENTER | RIGHT WING |
| JONATHAN HUBERDEAU | ALEKSANDER BARKOV | SAM REINHART |
| ANTHONY DUCLAIR | SAM BENNETT | PATRIC HORNQVIST |
| GRIGORI DENISENKO | CARTER VERHAEGHE | OWEN TIPPETT |
| MASON MARCHMENT | FRANK VATRANO | |
| RYAN LOMBERG | ALEKSI HEPONIEMI | |
| NOEL ACCIARI | ||
| JUHO LAMMIKKO | ||
| EETU LUOSTARINEN | ||
| LUCAS WALLMARK |
In addition, the Panthers will also have 2020 first-round pick Anton Lundell and Aleksi Saarela knocking on the door for spots on the team as well. If you're a keeper league owner of one or more of Lundell, Grigori Denisenko, and/or Aleksi Heponiemi, how are these players finding room? There's a lot of names here that could have some run in fantasy leagues this season, which made Reinhart's Fantasy Take one of the more challenging ones I've written.
One name that I overlooked in the Fantasy Take was Owen Tippett. It's possible that Reinhart plays center instead of right wing. Yet it appears there's more of an opening on right wing, so I slotted Reinhart there. Former first-round pick Tippett was a fringe second-unit power-play option – could he get bumped out of the mix completely? Same goes for Mason Marchment. Seems like more questions than answers, especially when you consider that the Panthers often seemed to mix and match lines last season.
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Finally, I'll leave you with this. If you're the Montreal Canadiens, I guess this is how you justify picking someone who had recently been charged with a sex crime.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding
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