Wild West: Top Remaining Unrestricted Free Agents

Grant Campbell

2021-07-26

Free agency begins on Wednesday, July 28 at noon ET (9 PT). Taylor Hall is now removed from lists as he signed a fairly reasonable four-year deal with Boston for $6 million AAV. Here is a look at who I consider the top unrestricted free agents on the market still. All salary cap projections are by Alex MacLean. Players are in no particular order.

Brandon Saad (W) (28-years old, projected $4.23 million AAV)

Saad has been a very consistent player in his nine seasons in the NHL averaging 23.8 goals and 48.1 points per 82 games. He's a solid second-line player on most teams if he provides the production he has. Some concerns from last season, albeit with a very good Colorado team, are his diminishing ice time (almost three minutes less than career), shots on goal (1.5/game with a career average of 2.4 and an unsustainable shooting percentage of 22.1 (he averages close to 12). If a team can get him for $3.5 to 4 million over three or four years, he should be able to provide them with two or three years of 20 goal seasons. If his offense slides, he becomes a bit of a liability, so buyer beware.

Dougie Hamilton (D) (28-years old, projected $9.78 million AAV)

Hamilton has spent nine years in the NHL, spending three seasons in Boston, Calgary and the latest Carolina. Chances are he will spend more than three years in his next stop as there is a very good chance he will sign for six or seven years with his new team. In his past two seasons with Carolina, he has become almost everything an NHL team looks for in a number one defenceman. He's big, shoots and passes the puck well, runs a power play and defends better than most and is only 28 years old. Any team he goes to will need to duplicate what Carolina did and make him the quarterback of the powerplay and use him shorthanded. It is still a crazy contract to consider that he will more than likely fetch around $10 million per year, which rarely works out in the end. He should be good for 15-20 goals, 50-60 points and close to 100 hits and blocks.

Gabriel Landeskog (W) (28-years old, projected 8.56 million AAV)

It appears that Landeskog and the Avalanche might be at an impasse for him to be re-signed and there might be a chance that he moves on. The big question is what can Landeskog do away from the only team he has known for the past 10 seasons? Is he the 34 goal and 75 points Landeskog from 2018-19 or the 18 goals and 33 points in 72 games Landeskog from 2016-17? Probably somewhere in between. Even without MacKinnon and company, I think Landeskog can score his career average of around 0.75 pts/game for around 55-65 points and maintain 20-25 goals. His projected salary puts a lot of emphasis on his leadership attributes over his actual production and I would still be quite surprised if Colorado doesn't re-visit this in the next week.

Jaden Schwartz (W) (29-years old, projected $3.84 million AAV)

In nine NHL seasons with Schwartz has averaged 22.4 goals and 55.9 points per 82 games. The concern is that in two of the past three seasons his production has declined to around 0.52 pts/game and both seasons coincidentally he didn't see more than 50% of powerplay time. If a team can get Schwartz for under $4 million for three or four seasons, they have a good chance at getting a solid player that could see 20 goals and 50-55 points if he sees the first unit of the power play more often than not. He could be one of the better value contracts signed this off-season.

Tomas Tatar (W) (30-years old, projected 3.3 million AAV)

Tatar was a healthy scratch for much of the playoff run for Montreal this season only dressing in five games for them. It is a bit strange as Tatar was the leading scorer for the Canadiens in 2019-20 with 61 points in 68 games and had 10 goals and 30 points in 50 games this season. He has averaged 23.1 goals and 49.3 points in his eight NHL seasons with Montreal, Vegas and Detroit. The knock on him is clearly his playoff pedigree as he only has two goals and three points in 15 playoff games in his three years in Montreal and six goals and six assists in 41 career playoff games. Tatar is still a very useful player that has great possession numbers and should still generate 20 goals and 50 points for the next two or three seasons. He should be a good signing for any team for two or three seasons at this projected salary.

Alec Martinez (D) (34-years old, projected 5.49 million AAV)

Martinez had an excellent season last year with Vegas when he had nine goals and 32 points in 53 games which were his most productive in his 11 seasons with Vegas and Los Angeles. He has averaged 9.1 goals and 29.7 points per 82 games in his career for 0.36 pts/game. At his age, he is unlikely to get his projected salary for anything more than three years, but the buyer should be aware that his production is unlikely to duplicate 0.60 pts/game from last year. He did lead the NHL in blocked shots last year with 165 and even though he might not get 100 hits anymore he is still a multi-category add for most pools. His defensive game at even strength is something to keep an eye on as his offence diminishes. He's a risky sign for anything over one or two years.

Mike Hoffman (W) (31- years old, projected $3.86 million AAV)

Hoffman missed the original free agent rush last season and was forced to sign a one-year deal in St. Louis for 2020-21. He posted 17 goals and 36 points in 52 games, good for 0.69 pts/game. The worrisome part was 17 of those points were with the man advantage and Hoffman was a healthy scratch for four or five games. His even-strength play suffered this past season and his possession numbers were not very good with a CF% of 45.4 and a net expected goals of minus 6.65 at ES. The flip side of Hoffman is that he has averaged 33 goals and 67 points over 82 games over the past three seasons and has 36, 29 and 17 goals in those years. At this projected salary there surely will be more suitors than last year that will offer him a three or four-year deal. He is a power-play specialist that could help most teams.

Tyson Barrie (D) (29 years old, projected $4.9 million AAV)

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Barrie gambled on himself last season when he signed a one-year contract with Edmonton at $3.75 million. He won that bet when he put up 48 points in 56 games good for 0.86 pts/game. He should be able to get a four or five-year deal for around $5 to 6 million per year as he has averaged 11.8 goals and 52.8 points in his nine seasons. The question has been and continues to focus on Barrie without the puck and if his production outweighs his shortcomings on defence? I'm not sure it makes sense for Edmonton to sign Barrie for four or five years if they have faith that Evan Bouchard can perhaps fill the role in a year or two. It was a good bounce-back year for Barrie and he should be a good offensive spark for a team that needs an upgrade on a PP quarterback. Calgary, Seattle and Carolina seem like the only teams that come to mind that might be in need. Pending where Dougie Hamilton ends up of course.

Philipp Grubauer (G) (29-years old, projected $8.74 million AAV)

In the last year of his contract, Grubauer cemented his role as the number one goalie in Colorado and had an excellent season, but he might have priced himself out of Colorado. This might be the first projection of Alex's that I think might be far too high as I think Grubauer will struggle to get more than $7 million for anything more than four or five years. The biggest reason for me is he's only had one year as the bonafide starter and his career-high is 40 games. As well as he's played, the team that signs him will need him to start at least 50-55 games and be as successful as he has been over the past six seasons. It seems a little bit of a stretch for Grubauer.

Kyle Palmieri (W) (30-years old, projected $3.71 million AAV)

If you throw out Palmieri's 10 goals and 21 points in 51 games last season split between New Jersey and the NY Islanders, he had five straight seasons preceding that of 30,26,24,27 and 25 goals. He was as consistent a 25-30 goal scorer as any in the NHL but the wheels fell off last year. It has brought his projected value down somewhat to $3.5 to $4 million AAV, but there has to be a concern moving forward that he can get his game back. There was some resurgence with seven goals in 19 games in the playoffs with the Islanders last year and that might be enough for some teams to bite on a three or four-year deal. I have little doubt he will rebound to 20-25 goals for the next year or two but have increasing doubt in years three and four.

Phillip Danault (C) – (28-years old, projected $4.34 million AAV)

Danault proved in the playoffs this year that he can be a serious shutdown machine. To do so his production needs to suffer, but will it be reduced to the point he becomes an overpaid third-line center, which all teams are looking to avoid at this price point? I don't see more than one or two suitors that will pay this type of money over three or four seasons for a player that puts up 0.45 points per game and has five goals in 53 games. Danault will need to get back to 10-15 goals and 45-50 points to justify any deal close to this. This is the production level that four or five teams will bid on.

Zach Hyman (W) (29-years old, projected $4.86 million AAV)

It sounds like Edmonton has a potential seven-year deal with Hyman at around $5 million AAV. The salary sounds reasonable, but the length might be three or four years long. Hyman is a very good hockey player that complements better-skilled players around him very well. He might be going from Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, which would be continuing a very good situation for him.

Hyman's career-high is 21 goals and 41 points but his 0.73 and 0.77 points per game over the past two seasons indicate that he should be able to crush both those highs. All signs point to progression as his power-play time and shots on goal have been progressing each season. The Oilers had the likes of James Neal and Alex Chiasson on the first unit for much of last season, so Hyman should see improved deployment immediately over his time in Toronto, where he peaked at 34.1 percent of the time on the power play. I think he should be good for 25 goals and 50 points and improve that first line immensely, but how long he can maintain that production is another story.

There are some other free agents that are intriguing in Ryan Suter, Frederik Andersen, Tuukka Rask, Mikael Granlund, Petr Mrazek, Erik Gustafsson, Joel Armia, Alexander Wennberg, Blake Coleman, Erik Haula, Mike Reilly and Zach Parise. I'd consider these players a tier below the ones above but some could see some pretty big paydays come Wednesday.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions please message me or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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