Ramblings: Goalies! Top 5 Goalies in Drafts, Andersen and Mrazek Trading Places (Aug 8)

Ian Gooding

2021-08-08

Yes, as the title suggests, today's Ramblings will mainly focus on goalies. But I need to get a few other things out of the way first.

It was a slow news day on Saturday. The only semi-noteworthy signing was Brendan Perlini signing a one-year, two-way contract with the Oilers. Perlini was drafted in the first round in 2014, and he spent last season in Switzerland. Forward signings with the Oilers can become interesting simply because of the opportunity to play on the McDavid or Draisaitl line, but there isn't really any value here unless you see that happen.

Need to get your fantasy hockey podcast fix? Unlike other hockey podcasts, the Keeping Karlsson podcast isn't taking a summer vacation. Listen to their latest as Ben Burnett interviews LA Kings beat writer Lisa Dillman on the state of the Kings. Or go to the Dobber homepage and on the right, you can listen to the last few podcasts, which include roundups on all four divisions. The new (old) divisions, that is – Pacific, Central, Metro, and Atlantic.

I meant to do this earlier, but better late than never. As has been the case in previous seasons, you can vote on the player that Dobber writes about in his lowdown on each team. Currently, you can vote for the player from Vegas, Vancouver, Toronto, and Tampa Bay.

Just for fun, the players that I'm curious about. Maybe you are too, but don't let my curiosity influence your vote.

Nolan Patrick – Once a highly-touted WHL star, can he turn his career around in the Vegas system? I invested a lot in him early, but injuries have derailed his career and I eventually traded him away.

Conor Garland – I'm really curious as to what he will look like with the Canucks, especially since he was fun to watch in Arizona. The more I think about it, the more this trade could take his fantasy value to the next level.

Nick Ritchie – He was a waiver-wire addition to my one fantasy team that won the title. Oh, and I wrote the Fantasy Take on his signing with Toronto. So maybe it's just to compare notes with Dobber.

Mathieu Joseph – As I'm writing some of the team-by-teams for the Fantasy Guide, I'm discovering that he could be in line for an expanded role next season, particularly with Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, and Tyler Johnson all leaving.

Thank you to those of you who provided feedback on goalies that you would draft after Andrei Vasilevskiy. Given your thoughts and my own analysis, here are my top 5 goalies in single-season leagues for the Top 100 Roto Rankings. Subject to change, of course. You at least have the preliminary formation of a second tier behind Vasilevskiy.

  1. Vasilevskiy – Maybe there's a better goalie out there ability-wise. But the way fantasy leagues are set up, he's the clear number one. Need proof? How about volume of starts resulting in wins, and solid ratios.
  2. Connor Hellebuyck – Unaffected by the goalie movement and perhaps flying under the radar because of it, his numbers didn't fall off much after a 2019-20 Vezina Trophy. One of the teams I was more impressed with in terms of offseason moves was Winnipeg because of the upgrades to the defense in Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon.
  3. Robin Lehner – Fantasy owners no longer have to worry about him splitting starts with Marc-Andre Fleury. Injuries are a concern here, otherwise I'd probably put him at #2 because of the situation he's in and prior performance when he's been healthy.
  4. Darcy Kuemper – I would have to assume he'll be drafted as a top 5, simply because of his move to Colorado. He's also battled injuries, but he could be in for a big season if he can stay healthy. Plus he's been fairly strong during his time with Arizona, which could set him up for success with Colorado.
  5. Semyon Varlamov – Outstanding numbers last season playing behind an air-tight Barry Trotz defense. However, Ilya Sorokin could play a greater role in the goaltending this coming season. Varlamov had the league's highest GSAA (21.84), while only Fleury had a higher QS% than Varlamov (69.4%).  

Today I'll discuss two more goalies who are literally trading places. These two goalies won't be in the top 5 of goalies, but they could land in the top 100 of all players.

Frederik Andersen

Between his expiring contract and the emergence of Jack Campbell, Andersen appeared to be a goalie on the move this offseason. As an Andersen keeper owner, I was expecting him to move to a team that appeared in desperate need of a goalie – a team where wins would be difficult to come by while at the same time further damaging his ratios (Buffalo or Detroit come to mind). The good news for Andersen keeper owners is that he found a decent landing spot in Carolina. Will that be what Andersen needs to turn the ship around?

Fantasy Impact: Carolina Changes Up Goaltending – Andersen and Raanta the New Duo

📢 advertisement:

Over the past few seasons, Andersen's goals-against average had been creeping up while his save percentage had been sliding down. Right before he was sidelined with a knee injury last season, Andersen was virtually unplayable, posting a disastrous 1-5-0 record with a 3.84 GAA and .862 SV% and -7.37 GSAA. In fact, none of those six starts were quality starts. Watching Andersen play, I suspected there was an injury because something looked really off.

Those who have faith in Andersen will cite the injury as an issue. Leading up to the injury, he was a more respectable 12-3-2 with a 2.59 GAA and .909 SV%. Those might not be Vezina-caliber numbers, but those type of fantasy numbers are indicative of a goalie who can thrive under a strong system. Carolina has that type of system, which can control the puck possession game and limit the number of high-danger chances he faces.

Carolina is making a bold move in revamping its goaltending, bringing in Andersen and Antti Raanta while parting ways with all of Alex Nedeljkovic, Petr Mrazek, and James Reimer. I like Andersen to take on a significant workload here, as Raanta has a lengthy injury history. If Raanta spends considerable time on IR again, then Andersen may be in danger of being overworked as he had been in Toronto. This is another angle of the signing that may not be considered here, which could have both a positive and negative effect on his value.

Overall, I like this move for Andersen. As long as he's not drafted as a top-tier goalie, he could provide top-100 value. He should be in line for plenty of wins while providing good-but-not-great ratios.

Petr Mrazek

Teaser time. As I mentioned earlier, I'm working on some of the writeups for the Fantasy Guide (available August 14). So I'll let you in on what I've written about the Leafs goalie situation.

In an offseason goalie market with plenty of supply, the Leafs opted for Mrazek. He seems like the right fit given the organization's current needs. For one, Campbell has never been a full-time starter, although he looked impressive when given the opportunity in 2020-21. Also, Mrazek is coming off an injury-filled season where he played only 12 games. He has also been more of a timeshare goalie throughout his career, with a career high of 54 games with Detroit back in 2015-16. Expect the two to alternate starts, at least in the beginning of the season. Who receives the majority of starts could not only depend on which goalie is hotter, but also which goalie spends less time on injured reserve.

To find out what confidence level either will be the starter, you'll have to purchase a Fantasy Guide.

Fantasy Impact: Toronto Goes With Mrazek – Campbell Goalie Duo

I will mention that those 12 games were impressive ones. Mrazek finished in the top 10 among goalies who played at least 10 games with his 2.12 GAA, .923 SV%, and 0.41 GSAA/60). He also benefits from moving from one likely playoff team to another, which should provide him and Campbell the opportunity for plenty of W's.

In terms of where these goalies are ranked, I believe both Campbell and Mrazek will either make the cut or be just on the outside looking in. Goalies ranked higher should have the number job to themselves. Goalies ranked lower will usually play for inferior teams, even if they have the job to themselves. If one emerges as the starter, that goalie could be in for a big year.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 20 - 17:04 CAR vs NYI
Apr 20 - 20:04 BOS vs TOR

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
ELIAS PETTERSSON VAN
J.T. MILLER VAN
LANE HUTSON MTL
SETH JARVIS CAR
EVAN BOUCHARD EDM

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK WPG
ILYA SOROKIN NYI
SEMYON VARLAMOV NYI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
17.5 MIKKO RANTANEN NATHAN MACKINNON JONATHAN DROUIN
16.3 VALERI NICHUSHKIN CASEY MITTELSTADT ARTTURI LEHKONEN
14.6 MILES WOOD ZACH PARISE ROSS COLTON

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: