Ramblings: Hart Re-Signs; Lysell to North America; Projecting Team USA – August 10

Michael Clifford

2021-08-10

While there has been a lot of handwringing in the offseason about what went wrong in Philadelphia in 2021, it really came down to goaltending. They managed .895 goaltending at 5-on-5 this past season, which is horrific. For comparison, two teams (Los Angeles, Vegas) had higher save percentages on the penalty kill, at .900 and .899, respectively.

Well, one of the goalies responsible is coming back:

I am being hard on Carter Hart here but there's no reason to be. He was honest about his struggles this season with everything surrounding COVID, and that is completely believable. He had been a good NHL goalie before that and has a pedigree. We should have faith that he'll turn it around. The question is whether the defence is good enough to support a huge rebound for Hart. I guess we'll see.

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Igor Shesterkin also signed an extension, a four-year deal worth over $22.6M in total. Though he wasn't super elite by typical goalies stats last year, he was at the top of the board in many other metrics: first in the league in high-danger save percentage and a goals save above expected per minute in line with names like Juuse Saros and Robin Lehner. As long as he keeps up those levels, and the Rangers keep improving, he should be an elite fantasy option moving forward. Though, as always, the usual "goalies are voodoo" caveat applies.

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Ilya Samsonov got a one-year deal from the Caps for $2M. That could be a great value in cap leagues this year.

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Max Comtois got a two-year deal from the Ducks. I wrote about him last week and how much upside he has. He is a sneaky pick this year and could be tremendous if the Ducks take a big step forward.

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News on Fabian Lysell, Boston's first-round pick from 2021:

His Dobber Prospects profile is here.

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There is always lots of talk about what Team Canada will look like at the Olympics. This is probably because there is such a concentration of NHL media in Canada, but the projections have been beat to death. Even some of the worst rosters I've seen projected for Canada at the 2022 Olympics in Beijing only really need about 3-4 changes. And those changes are always at the bottom of the roster, or the third goalie, or whatever.

Team USA, on the other hand, feels a lot more interesting. The NHL wasn't there at the last Winter Olympics, but they were in 2014 where they failed to medal and 2010 when they lost to Canada in the Gold Medal game. In fact, since the NHL got permission for the Olympics in 1998, Team USA has yet to win a gold medal. With the available talent for 2022, this could be their breakthrough.

Let's take a spin through a potential Team USA 2022 Beijing roster. Does this have anything to do with fantasy? Not really, but it's August and I'm trying to give my brain a little break. Let's-a-go!

Whenever doing a puzzle like this, it's best to get the automatics out of the way. Who are the guys that are locks for the roster? (For this, I am going to assume everyone is healthy. That includes Jack Eichel, who may or may not be healthy for the Olympics. If he's not, well, it's August.) When I talk about a lock, I mean guys that will be there as long as they're healthy. These guys are absolute cornerstones, and they could go pointless for 30 regular season games and still be on the roster. They are as follows:

Those seem like the locks to me. Maybe some other people feel like some players are guaranteed to be there, but these just feel like the safe bets assuming health. That leaves our roster looking something like this:

??? – Matthews – Kane

??? – Eichel – ???

??? – ??? – Oshie

??? – ??? – ???

??? – McAvoy

??? – Jones

??? – Carlson

Hellebuyck

Gibson

Not a bad squad so far but there are a lot of other players we're likely to see on this roster. Here are the guys who are almost certainly locks, barring health or a complete collapse in their play:

This should basically round out our blue line at this point. There are some players in the mix for the last spot like Jaccob Slavin, Torey Krug, Jacob Trouba, and Ryan McDonagh. We'll get to that in a minute. Our updated lineup:

Connor – Matthews – Kane

Lee – Eichel – ???

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Tkachuk – Larkin – Oshie

??? – ??? – ???

Fox – McAvoy

Werenski – Jones

Hughes – Carlson

Hellebuyck

Gibson

We need a right winger, a fourth line, and our spares. This is where it gets interesting.

That second-line right wing spot is an interesting one. Brock Boeser probably has a good shot at it, but Blake Wheeler is always in the running with Team USA roster. He was there as a junior, he has been there for a World Championship, and he was there for both the 2014 Olympics and 2016 World Cup. I don't think he belongs at this stage of his career, but coaches love their veterans. There is the chance to go with someone with a proven NHL record like Boeser, a veteran like Wheeler, or a kid like Jack Hughes.

The fourth line is also interesting. Virtually every mock roster from small websites to Sportsnet and TSN have the four centres as Matthews-Eichel-Larkin-Miller. Having J.T. Miller as the 4C is interesting because he's typically been a winger in his NHL career. He has played some centre with the Rangers and Canucks, though, and has done well in those minutes. We should also see one of the right wingers not taken for the RW2 slot put in as the RW4.

That leaves the final spot to discuss: LW4. While discussing fourth liners isn't often a worth discussion, it certainly is here when we take a look at some of the names still to be put on the roster. It is also why a lot of people are so excited for this iteration of Team USA; there's so much talent. Anyway, here are some options for the final left-wing slot: Johnny Gaudreau, Max Pacioretty, Jake Guentzel, Alex DeBrincat, and Brady Tkachuk. When looking at those names, we have to look at the roster and think if there's anyone we can replace on the wings. Those are just some superb talents and it would be hard to leave any of them off a roster. At the same time, who are we taking off? Kyle Connor is one of the best goal scorers in hockey, Anders Lee, Matthew Tkachuk, and T.J. Oshie are great two-way players, and Patrick Kane is a mortal lock. Maybe Lee can be taken off if he doesn’t come all the way around from his knee rehab, but then we're still leaving some great wingers off the list. No matter how this is done, there are going to be multiple true first-line talents not in the lineup for Team USA.

My selections are Brock Boeser for RW2, J.T. Miller for 4C, and I'm going to slide Matthew Tkachuk to the right side on the fourth line to get two more left wingers in the lineup. Those two wingers are going to be Max Pacioretty and Johnny Gaudreau. That leaves our lineup looking like this:

Connor – Matthews – Kane

Lee – Eichel – Boeser

Pacioretty – Larkin – Oshie

Gaudreau – Miller – M. Tkachuk

Fox – McAvoy

Werenski – Jones

Hughes – Carlson

Hellebuyck

Gibson

Extras: Guentzel, J. Hughes, Slavin, Demko

Guentzel is one of my extras because he's great both at 5-on-5 and on the power play, and being able to put a good power play together in a short tournament is important. If guys like Pacioretty or Boeser don't come through, Guentzel will.

Jack Hughes is here for two reasons. One is Olympic experience at a best-on-best tournament, and the fact that he can play multiple positions. This affords them some lineup flexibility in case of injury or under-performance.

We are adding Slavin because we need another left-shot defenceman. If one of Werenski or Hughes were to get hurt, that would leave the blue line with one left-shot defenceman. That feels a bit too fragile.

The final goalie probably doesn't matter but Demko has shown real well behind a bad defence in Vancouver. If Hellebuyck and Gibson don't live up to their tasks, Demko has a real ability to carry a team when necessary.

That is my Team USA roster. There are many notable omissions like Brady Tkachuk, Blake Wheeler, Ryan McDonagh, Alex DeBrincat, Torey Krug, Chris Kreider, Joe Pavelski, and Jeff Petry, to name several. We could easily see Tkachuk over Lee or McDonagh over Carlson. This is why it's a really hard roster to assemble. McDonagh just had a wonderful playoffs, DeBrincat is probably as good a scorer as Connor and has chemistry with Kane, Kreider can be an absolute monster when he's on his game, etc. It also makes this one of the most exciting Team USA rosters in a while. No more rostering Justin Abdelkader or leaving 80-point wingers at home in favour of pure grit. This team can be one that challenges for gold, and is as deep from top-to-bottom as almost any roster that will present itself in Beijing.

Oh, and they might have the best goaltending tandem of any country.

What do you guys think? Have some changes that you would like to make. Feel free to discuss this in comments or in the forums.

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