Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

With the Expansion Draft and the UFA blitz now in the rearview mirror and the impending release of the Fantasy Guide (available for order here), many of you are starting to renew your focus on your fantasy teams. Thankfully Goldipucks is here to give you the read on three players, who this month are Patrick Kane, Brock Boeser, and Victor Hedman. As usual, to get the most out of this column stop here and decide which of the three was too hot, who was too cold, and who was "just right" for 2020-21, before reading on to find out whether you went three for three in your guesses.

Patrick Kane

Pop quiz – what player scored the most points in the 2010 decade? It was none other than Kane, who keeps humming along, finishing in the top ten in scoring for the fourth straight campaign in 2020-21. But here's a player who'll be turning 33 during 2021-22. As such, will his unquestionable talent age well, or should we expect him to no longer remain elite? Most likely the former, in that although his best years are likely behind him, he should be able to maintain a scoring pace in the mid 90s for at least a few more seasons.

On the surface Kane's trends are not encouraging, as in the course of two seasons he went from a 111 to 97-point scoring pace and from 4.2 to 3.4 SOG per game, all despite slightly more PPTOI per game and similar overall TOI in 2020-21 as 2018-19. Why, then, is there reason not to be discouraged? Most notably, Kane's SH% was 7.9%, marking a career worst and only the second time since 2012-13 he was in single digits, with a career mark of 12.1% coming into 2020-21. That means had he shot at his normal rate and taken the exact same number of shots he should have had eight more goals on the season; and had that occurred, it would have given him a scoring pace of 108.

Okay – so why then shouldn't Kane be predicted to do even better in 2021-22? For one, even as his scoring pace has dropped, his PPPts per game rose, from 0.37 to 0.39. And this despite his PPG rate being cut in half (from one per every nine games in 2018-19 to just one per 18 games in 2020-21). What's more – his PPSOG per game rate dropped considerably, from 1.16 in 2018-19 to 0.89 in 2020-21. Also, unlike in 2018-19, this past season Kane's total number of SOG from 0-15 and 16-30 feet were cumulatively higher than his SOG from 31+ feet. The story this tells is one of a player who, even as he's shooting less and becoming more selective when it comes to the quality of his shots, is also less of a sniper.

What do the all-important player comparables tell us? Kane has scored at a cumulative rate of 1.25 points per game as a winger over his age 30, 31 and 32 seasons, with 1.15 points per game or higher in each. But guess what – literally no one else meets those criteria, except Brad Marchand, who's the same hockey age. Unfortunately, there is no way to gain insight via this assessment.

Or is there? If we look a bit older we find the case of Martin St. Louis, who had a total of four seasons of 1.15 points per game or better in his 30s, including his last at age 37. I would say that St. Louis makes for a decent comparison, as although St. Louis was not quite as prolific of a shooter, he was a winger through which his team's offense flowed, like Kane. So seeing what St. Louis was able to do in his 30s, if anything, bodes well for Kane offense not to fall off a cliff.

What do Kane's metrics tell us? Nothing too remarkable. His secondary assists percentage of 33.5% falls right in the 31.7-37.9% range that he achieved in each of the previous seven seasons. His IPP overall was 77.6%, which, although it marked a four-season low, is also pretty comparable to his numbers (78.0%, 78.1%, 76.7%) in three of the previous four. One eyebrow raising number is his PP IPP, which was 81.6% after being 70.0% – 71.9% in three of the last four seasons. But it was 85.2% in 2019-20, signifying that Kane is needing to do more on the PP as the team has become younger and more inexperienced. Lastly, there's the matter of his offensive zone starting percentage (OZ%) having dropped three straight seasons, from 63.5% to 55.8%, which, although by no means low, was the second lowest of his career and only the third time – 2019-20 also included – it was below 62.6%. Yet that too is a function of the Blackhawks no longer being as dominant, since it's directly reflected in him having fewer starts in the offensive zone. Yet Kane's OZ% mark was still the second highest among Chicago forwards, trailing only his now former teammate Pius Suter. Kane most definitely remains an offensive focal point – the team is just not bestowing upon him the percentage of OZ starts to which he's accustomed. Once that improves, that means the team around him is improving, likely resulting in his IPP dropping, which would negate any gains he'd stand to make via yet again having a high OZ%.

Simply put, although Kane undoubtedly has peaked he still passes the sniff test. Were it just a question of his solid metrics, still strong PP numbers, and seemingly low SH%, he could be earmarked for a rebound to over 100-point scoring. But it looks as though the casualties of his age are his SOG rates and goal scoring, which are significant enough such to keep him from rebounding. As such, Kane's 2020-21 scoring rate was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.75. I'd look for him to continue scoring at roughly a 95-point rate for at least the next few seasons, so if you're in a keeper don't cut bait on him yet or you'll likely regret it.

Brock Boeser

Although Boeser hit his 200-game breakout threshold in 2020-21 and his scoring output did improve versus his past two seasons, his rookie season numbers remain – to date – his best. Should we resign ourselves to Boeser not being a point per game player? I'd say no, as that mark appears to be in reach as soon as this season.

Lost in looking at Boeser's scoring rates of 73, 67, 65, and 72 is the fact that two of his key metrics make for very favorable comparisons with top tier players. In particular, over his first five seasons (including his nine game first campaign), his cumulative goals per game and SOG rates are, respectively, 0.38 and 2.85. Others who met or exceeded both criteria in their first five seasons, and since 2000-01, were Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, Rick Nash, Henrik Zetterberg, David Pastrnak, Alex Semin, Dany Heatley, Vladimir Tarasenko, and James Neal. Only Tarasenko failed to have at least two-point per game seasons, with all but him, Neal and Nash recording at least two seasons of 90+ point scoring pace by age 27.

Focusing on goals and SOG for 2020-21 is especially illuminating. Yes, Boeser's SOG rate of 2.5 was quite a bit less than his 3.0 rate in both 2019-20 and 2018-19. However, he had more SOG from 0-15 feet in 2020-21 than in either of those other two seasons. In fact, his ratio of SOG from 0-15 feet versus 31+ feet for the 2020-21 season was 1.28 to 1, compared to 0.71 to 1 in 2019-20, and 0.54 to 1 in 2018-19. Over the course of just two seasons his ratio of SOG from 0-15 feet versus 31+ feet more than doubled. What was the end result? Boeser's SH% was 16.3%, as compared to 9.5% in 2019-20 and 12.4% in 2018-19. As a result, his goals per game rate was back above 0.4 for the first time since he was a rookie. What we appear to be witnessing is Boeser, unlike what's happening to Kane, becoming a more selective and accurate shooter, yet also not seeing his SOG rate fall off a cliff. It's essentially a best of all worlds situation that bodes very well for him in future seasons.

It is good to see that Boeser's OZ% was a career low of 59.5%, after averaging 64.2% over his previous four seasons in the league. His most frequent center J. T. Miller also saw a lower OZ%; but unlike Miller, whose scoring dropped in response, Boeser's rose, signifying that he is a complete player who does not need an ultra-high OZ% to produce. On top of this, Boeser's secondary assist percentage, which was 50% when he produced at a 73-point pace as a rookie, was a career low at 38.5% in 2020-21. This is still further evidence that Boeser is becoming a more well-rounded player while at the same time upping his scoring pace, which is a win-win for his fantasy owners.

Lastly, although it's not a large sample size, Boeser was on fire to end 2020-21, with eight points in his last five games, peppering the net with ten SOG in one of those games. In doing so he didn't once have more than 19:32 of TOI, ending the season with a per game TOI average of 19:10. While not high, it's high enough, especially given Boeser's PPTOI, as the Canucks had three forwards within the top seven in average PPTOI per game. That type of deployment is a recipe for fantasy success, especially once the Canucks PP starts to click better than it has, which should occur as Boeser and Elias Pettersson further mature.

Although some poolies might have expected more from Boeser by now, as we can see he's done better than it would first appear and has fine company in terms of his early career SOG and goal rates comparables. He's maturing as a player while at the same time scoring more. Once the Vancouver PP1, on which Boeser sees heaps of time, starts to click, the sky's the limit. As for 2020-21, Boeser was TOO COLD and gets assigned a rating of 2.75 as he should have been a point per gamer were it not for better PP output and more secondary assists. If everyone in Vancouver is healthy for 2020-21, Boeser should taste 80 points and likely stay above that level for seasons to come, with a ceiling at or above 90.

Victor Hedman

Another season, another scoring pace for Hedman between 63 and 68 points, marking the fourth in a row he fell within that range. Should we expect anything different for 2021-22? Actually, I'll say yes – a bit of a downtick in production.

Who was a major beneficiary of the absence of Nikita Kucherov during the 2020-21 season? Sure, Ondrej Palat would qualify; but Hedman does too. Part of Hedman's consistency over the prior three seasons stemmed from his PP scoring, which was 0.33, 0.35, and 0.33 PPPts per game. For 2020-21, however, it was 0.44 per game, meaning he tallied six PPPts more than would have been expected.

How did this happen though, as Hedman again saw between 3:06 and 3:24 of PP time per game, just as he did in the prior three seasons? The difference was clearly the absence of Kucherov, who's a PPPt magnet. Rather than Kucherov leading the team in PPPts, it was Hedman, and by a wide margin. Despite having 24 PPPts, tops among all rearguards, he had a mere one PPG, meaning he had 23 PP assists, with only one other defenseman having at least 20. Had Kucherov been in the fold, some of those PPPts would have been syphoned away, hurting Hedman's output in the process. Lest one think that with Kucherov in the mix the team would've had a lot more PPGs, the Ligntning's PP conversion percentage for 2020-21 was 22.2%, or just a hair below its 23.1% for 2019-20.

Let's also not overlook the looming presence of Mikael Sergachev. Still only 23, Sergachev saw his scoring rate in 2020-21 increase for the second straight season, to a career best pace of 44 points. What's also increased over those two seasons has been Sergachev's share of his team's man advantage minutes, rising above 40% for the first time. We're getting to the point where Sergachev is probably going to eat into Hedman's PP1 time, which, in turn, would hurt Hedman in that area even further. In fact, these seeds may have already been planted, with Hedman seeing less PPTOI in Q3 2020-21 than in Q2, and in Q4 than in Q3.

Beyond that, Hedman's offensive zone starting percentage (OZ%) for 2020-21 was 59.9%, marking a six-season high. This was not the result of an improvement of the lightning as a whole, but rather seemingly a one season aberration. Hedmans' OZ% should drop – perhaps considerably – in the normal course, especially since he's taken the ice for a larger share of shorthanded minutes in each of the past two seasons.

Another trend that seems to be developing is Hedman starting the season very strong but then slowing as it progresses. In 2019-20 it was 39 points in his first 39 games, but then only 16 in 27 thereafter. For 2020-21, it was 26 points in 26 games, followed by 19 in 28 thereafter. So although Hedman yet again was able to start strong to pad his point total in 2020-21, he started to lose steam in 2020-21 even sooner, such that had it been a full 82 game campaign he likely would have seen his season-long scoring pace drop more so than it did in 2019-20, where he had a longer early season stretch of top tier scoring. With an 82-game schedule projected to resume in 2021-22, this trend is indeed concerning.

Am I saying that Hedman's scoring is going to crater? No, but between his unsustainably elevated PP scoring, Sergachev eating away more and more at Hedman's precious PP time, an unusually high OZ% that is poised to drop, and his demonstrated slowdowns as seasons go on, Hedman was TOO HOT for 2020-21 and gets a rating of 8.0, as he should have scored at a pace closer to 60, which is also what I'd peg him for in 2021-22.

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Questions for Mailbag

My monthly mailbag is a few weeks away so you have time to get me your question(s). To do so, you can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.