Ramblings: Quick Observations on Eight Teams – NSH, NJ, NYI, NYR, OTT, PHI, PIT, SJ (Aug 13)

Ian Gooding

2021-08-13

The Jets and Andrew Copp avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one-year, $3.64 million extension. In a shortened season, Copp set career highs in both goals (15) and points (39). In other words, he was very quietly on a 58-point pace. That's not bad for a player who received spurts of top-6 icetime, but whose most frequent linemates in 2020-21 were still Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton. With Paul Stastny back with the Jets for another season, Copp might be back on the third line.

My one lasting memory of Copp last season: His four-goal game against the Canucks on March 24. His main linemates in that game were… Lowry and Appleton. Sometimes you don't need to play alongside the big guns to be successful.

Slater Koekkoek is returning to Edmonton. The Oilers re-signed him to a two-year contract with an AAV of $925,000. Koekkoek was held to just 18 games because of a broken collarbone. He should compete for a spot on the third pair.

Even though we're still in the thick of summer (and another heat wave where I live), the Keeping Karlsson podcast keeps on rolling. In their latest episode, they announce that registration is open for the KKUPFL (Keeping Karlsson Ultimate Fantasy Hockey League). As well and as per usual, they also discuss a few of the latest happenings around the league. You can also listen on your favorite podcast provider.

The Fantasy Guide will be ready on Saturday! Pre-purchase yours at the Dobber Sports page.

As I mentioned last weekend, I helped write some of the team-by-team information in the Fantasy Guide. Along the way I picked up a bit of interesting information on each team, which I'll share with you here. I didn't construct the rosters like Dobber did, so no rants from me about how the Leafs have signed 37 forwards to fill 13 roster spots. These thoughts might be random, but I'll try to keep them fantasy relevant while not reiterating what I wrote in the Fantasy Guide.

I'll only discuss teams that I wrote about here, hence the coverage on only the lower half of teams sorted in alphabetical order. I may come back to the other teams later, possibly after I read through the Fantasy Guide.

Nashville

Dobber mentioned that with Ryan Ellis gone, Mattias Ekholm could receive more power-play time. Ekholm has nowhere to go but up in that department, scoring just two power-play points in 48 games last season. Ekholm is also in a contract year, which could provide an additional boost. If Nashville is below the playoff bar, expect the Ekholm trade rumors to heat up again, as he'll be a much-desired rental.

New Jersey

Speaking of contract years, Jack Hughes will be an RFA next summer. The success of this offseason acquisitions will be crucial, but Hughes taking another step forward will probably matter more long-term. Using a linear production curve (which is the simple way of making projections) from Season 1 to Season 2 to Season 3, Hughes would be on pace to crack 60 points over a full 82-game season in 2021-22. I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes makes his way into the Top 100 Roto Rankings soon.

NY Islanders

If anyone ever tells you that only one goalie per team is worth owning, note the following:

Semyon Varlamov

2.04 GAA (4th), .929 SV% (2nd), 69.4 QS% (2nd), 0.62 GSAA/60 (2nd)

Ilya Sorokin

2.17 GAA (7th), .918 SV% (10th), 68.2 QS% (3rd), 0.27 GSAA/60 (12th)

Ranks are among the 47 goalies with minimum 20 GP last season. The Fantasy Guide will provide the confidence level that one of these goalies is the starter over the other, but it may not matter as much as you would think here. Defensive systems matter when drafting a goalie, and there might not be a better defensive system that what the Islanders have.

NY Rangers

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Maybe it was because Tom Wilson was allowed to run wild during that one game, but the Rangers have stocked up on toughness this offseason in adding Ryan Reaves, Barclay Goodrow, and Sammy Blais. None of these players should be penciled in for the top 6, so they shouldn't become offensive anchors for players like Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. Maybe someone like a Chris Kreider could be affected, since Panarin, Alexis Lafreniere, and Kreider are all left wingers.

Speaking of the lines, remember that trading for Jack Eichel will shake up the lines even further. Not only would there be players traded for Eichel, but also other players who may not fit cap-wise in future offseasons. I can't help but think that Zibanejad would be included in an Eichel trade, if the Rangers are in fact the team that lands him.

Ottawa

Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson are both RFAs this summer. What they receive could affect what Josh Norris receives next summer, when his entry-level contract expires. That goes for both cap hit and term. There's some angst in Ottawa that the two won't get re-signed, similar to what Canucks fans are feeling with Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes. Keep in mind that those are the only two significant contracts left for Ottawa, and they are still just over $7 million under the cap floor. Eugene Melnyk can't totally cheap out here.

Philadelphia

Claude Giroux will be a player to watch. If he doesn't sign with the Flyers by next summer, he will be a first-time UFA at age 34. His 82-game pace still remains between 60-65 points, which is still pretty good even if he's not posting the lofty point-per-game numbers that he did in earlier seasons. I'm probably going to move him out of the Top 100 Roto Rankings – convince me otherwise? His name brand value may get him drafted too high in many leagues, but I'm interested to see where he checks in on ADP rankings.

Pittsburgh

With Evgeni Malkin likely to miss the start of the season, Jeff Carter could continue where he left off. After he was acquired by the Penguins at the trade deadline, Carter's value skyrocketed with nine goals and 11 points in 14 regular-season games and four goals in six playoff games. Malkin only suited up for four of those regular-season games.

But but but… Carter's most frequent linemate during that regular-season scoring surge was Jared McCann, who we know has since been selected by the Seattle Kraken. Not to mention Carter was shooting at an unsustainable 24.3% during that span.

Overall, I still like Carter as a late-round sleeper, just to see if he can continue that momentum from the end of last season. If not, then I'd probably drop him quickly for whoever the hot commodity is early in the season.

San Jose

San Jose leads the league in bad contracts, which essentially is the bill arriving after years and years of trying to chase a Stanley Cup. Because of the length and the term of these contracts, they could have a long climb back to respectability. One example is Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who is 34 years old and still has five years left at $7 million per. And that's a smaller cap hit than both Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns, who are both over 30.

In his second season, 22-year-old Mario Ferraro logged nearly five more minutes per game than Vlasic. Ferraro hasn't been an offensive force, but he logged second-unit power-play time while delivering over 100 hits in back-to-back seasons.

Evander Kane has a sizeable contract of his own (four more years at $7 million per). We have yet to find out what will happen with Kane, but I'm already putting him on my Do Not Draft list. Will the league suspend him? Will the Sharks buy out his contract? With reports surfacing that teammates no longer want him around, you know the Sharks are already looking for a way to get out of that contract.  

I'll continue with at least one thought on each of the "last" eight teams tomorrow. Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Vancouver, Vegas, Washington, and Winnipeg.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 12 - 12:04 CBJ vs WSH
Apr 12 - 12:04 PHI vs NYI
Apr 12 - 15:04 CAR vs NYR
Apr 12 - 16:04 L.A vs COL
Apr 12 - 18:04 FLA vs BUF
Apr 12 - 19:04 TOR vs MTL
Apr 12 - 19:04 CHI vs WPG
Apr 12 - 20:04 DAL vs UTA
Apr 12 - 22:04 VAN vs MIN
Apr 12 - 22:04 VGK vs NSH
Apr 12 - 22:04 SEA vs STL

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
MAX DOMI TOR
WILL SMITH S.J
MACKLIN CELEBRINI S.J
ALEXANDER NIKISHIN CAR
LANE HUTSON MTL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
CALVIN PICKARD EDM
JAKE ALLEN N.J
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK WPG
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
LINUS ULLMARK OTT

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency N.J Players
20.3 DAWSON MERCER TIMO MEIER ERIK HAULA
17.7 STEFAN NOESEN NICO HISCHIER JESPER BRATT
15.8 CURTIS LAZAR PAUL COTTER NATHAN BASTIAN

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