Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me and as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Dave)

I'm guessing this year's draft class won't make an immediate impact in 2021-22. So which players from the last few drafts do you expect to shine this season and challenge for the Calder?

First off, winning the Calder doesn't always go hand-in-hand with being the best in fantasy. Either way, let's take a look at the top fantasy rookies over the past decade to see when they were drafted.

Season	Top Scoring Rookie Forward, Plus Draft Year	#2 Scoring Rookie Forward, Plus Draft Year	#3 Scoring Rookie Forward, Plus Draft Year	Top Scoring Rookie Defenseman, Plus Draft Year	Rookie Goalie with the Most Wins, Plus Draft Year
2020-21	Kirill Kaprizov (2015)	Jason Robertson (2017)	Josh Norris (2017)	Ty Smith (2018)	Vitek Vanacek (2014)
2019-20	Dominik Kubalik (2013)	Victor Olofsson (2014)	Nick Suzuki (2017)	Quinn Hughes (2018)	MacKenzie Blackwood (2015)
2018-19	Elias Pettersson (2017)	Brady Tkachuk (2018)	Andreas Johnsson (2013)	Rasmus Dahlin (2018)	Jordan Binnington (2011)
2017-18	Mathew Barzal (2015)	Clayton Keller (2016)	Yanni Gourde (undrafted)	Will Butcher (2013)	Tristan Jarry (2013)
2016-17	Auston Matthews (2016)	Patrik Laine (2016)	William Nylander (2014)	Zach Werenski (2015)	Matt Murray (2012)
2015-16	Artemi Panarin (undrafted)	Jack Eichel (2015)	Max Domi (2013)	Shayne Gostisbehere (2012)	John Gibson (2011)
2014-15	Mark Stone (2010)	Johnny Gaudreau (2011)	Filip Forsberg (2012)	John Klingberg (2010)	Jake Allen (2008)
2013-14	Nathan MacKinnon (2013)	Ondrej Palat (2011)	Tyler Johnson (undrafted)	Torey Krug (undrafted)	Frederick Andersen (2010)
2012-13	Nail Yakupov (2012)	Jonathan Huberdeau (2011)	Cory Conacher (undrafted)	Justin Schultz (2008)	Jake Allen (2008)
2011-12	Gabriel Landeskog (2011)	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011)	Adam Henrique (2008)	Jake Gardiner (2008)	Thomas Greiss (2004)
2010-11	Jeff Skinner (2010)	Logan Couture (2007)	Michael Grabner (2006)	Kevin Shattenkirk (2007)	Corey Crawford (2003)

What this shows is, when it comes to forwards, players drafted in the same season have experienced success, whether because of pure skill, opportunity due to a poor team, or a combination of both. There were also more undrafted players here than I expected. With goalies and defensemen, it was rarer for anyone to make an immediate impact. If we're to assume no skater from the 2021 draft class will be the top scorer for 2021-22, which is a safe assumption as it has occurred just once each in the past seven seasons for forwards and defensemen, what seemingly will matter most is a rookie skater's team, as in several instances rookie skaters did well due to being put into a key role on an already good team, or had a chance to step up due to being on a worse team in need of help from its younger players.

In terms of weaker teams, this might signify Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale could be impactful, as could Quinton Byfield, Victor Soderstrom, plus, if they make the NHL, Mortiz Seider, Alex Turcotte, Alexander Holtz and Lucas Raymond. Players who could benefit being rookies on good or at least less weak teams if they get an opportunity include the likes of Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, Philip Tomasino, Evan Bouchard, Nils Lundqvist, Cole Caufield, Bowen Byram, Spencer Knight, Ville Heinola, Alex Barre-Boulet, Alex Newhook, and Girgori Denisenko.

Let me also add that the best resource for answering a question like this is the 2021 Keeper League Fantasy Pack, including the 2021-22 Fantasy Guide, which itself includes an article on Calder Favorites, plus the 2021 Fantasy Prospects Report, with the lowdown hundreds of prospects. If you haven't bought it yet, you should. It's available here. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Brady)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 6 league. Active line-ups are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 2UTIL, plus 4 Bench, 1 LTIR, and 1 NA spot. Roster moves can be made on a daily basis. Our scoring system is as follows: G(6), A(4), +/-(2), PPPts(2), SOG(1), HIT(0.5), BLK(0.5), W(5), GA(-3), SV(0.5), SO(5). My envisioned keepers are: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Patrick Kane, and Jack Eichel. I'm having trouble deciding upon my last two keepers from the following: Evander Kane, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Seguin, Seth Jones, Aaron Ekblad, Samuel Girard, Jacob Markstrom, or Cam Talbot. What's your advice?

First off, I'm not keeping a goalie. Neither Markstrom nor Talbot wow me, and I suspect several teams won't keep a goalie, giving you ample chance to draft netminders at least on a par with those two. The way things have been of late, i.e., with fewer than a handful of goalies being "sure things," I believe most teams in leagues where the number of keepers is this small will opt to forego keeping a goalie. I think that's what you should do here, as neither Markstrom nor Talbot is so good as to dictate you keep them, especially as you appear to have other better options among your skaters.

Looking first at d-men, as you have none among your four sure things. Jones could be a monster on the Blackhawks, with Ekblad also likely offering significant value too, especially with the departure of Keith Yandle making it so Ekblad will be the top dog when it comes to the PP. I think you need to keep at least one of Jones or Ekblad, as 40% of your active skater line-up is d-men and, as noted, you already have four forward keepers. Jones's multicat value, plus his likely motivation to show how good he is, sells me on him as a keeper more so than Ekblad. Girard is fine, but not good enough under these circumstances.

Is Ekblad worth more though than Lindholm or Evander Kane (Seguin isn't in the conversation). With Kane's future uncertain you need to decide who's better between Lindholm and Ekblad, in case Kane is suspended for long enough to make him unkeepable. Lindholm offers a little bit of everything; but his HIT total has shrunk and he's on a three-season streak of shooting well above his career rate. Those things having been said, as I pointed out in a Goldipucks piece, Lindholm is likely a good bet to produce right at the 70 point mark, which, combined with what he offers in other areas, is pretty solid.

As for Ekblad, even with the presence of Keith Yandle and emergence of MacKenzie Weegar, he saw his SOG total and PP usage spike. Moreover, while Ekblad had a seemingly high SH% which led to 11 goals in just 35 games, we need to keep in mind he hit five posts and one crossbar, meaning he missed six more goals by mere inches. This is also a player who had double digit goal totals his first five years in the league despite not once scoring a point per every other game. Going back to 1980, only Ray Bourque, Phil Housley, Larry Murphy, Dave Ellett, and Steve Duchesne also had 10+ goals in each of their first five seasons. Of course the accomplishments of the first three go without saying, and I'm not here to tell you that Ekblad will rise to their level; however, even Ellett bested the point per every other game mark seven times, hitting 51+ in three seasons, while Duchene had 55+ points seven times. In all, that's good company in which to find oneself, and probably enough of a scale tilter, along with Keith Yandle's departure and MacKenzie Weegar being no threat to Ekblad's PP1 stranglehold, to recommend keeping him over Lindholm.

In terms of Kane, even with things as they are, a team might want him due to his superb value in this league plus him being someone who can be stashed in the NA spot. I'd offer him for trade now and see what you can get. In fact, you might offer him plus either of Ekblad and Lindholm to try and get a player who's better than either of the latter two, solving your keeper quandary in the process. Or I would not fault you if you wanted to keep Kane for yourself, as he really is superb in this league and possibly worth the wait to get him back unless he's booted out of the NHL. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Luke)

I'm in a keep 3 league with 14 teams and scoring categories of G, A, SOG, PPPts, TOI, +/-, GAA, SV%, W, SO. I have Brad Marchand, Kirill Kaprizov, Brayden Point, Johnny Gaudreau, Jack Hughes, Carter Hart and Robin Lehner. How would you rank these players for my league?

In a league where just 42 players are kept, you need sure things and you cannot play the waiting game by holding players (i.e., Hughes, Hart) whose potential might be amazing but who won't be great right now. In fact, this brings up a good point in terms of keeper criteria, that being the higher the total number of keepers, the more you can focus on players who could pay bigger dividends in the future.

Other things to have in mind in picking keepers of course will depend on the categories and number of teams, particularly when if comes to goalies, since even though the past two seasons have shown us that outside of a precious few elite netminders predicting goalie success is a crapshoot, when there are 12 or more teams and 2+ goalies start, one almost assuredly should be a keeper. That is unless goalie categories are an afterthought, in which case you focus on skaters. With skaters, positions matter, as keeping an elite RW or LW is more important than keeping a top center, which is the deepest position in fantasy. Defensemen are closer to goalies in that after the elite ones you tend to be able to lump the rest together and as such you should be more selective about keeping them.

In this league, there are only three keepers, cutting against keeping a goalie; however, goalie categories represent 40% of scoring, which is quite high. Also, Lehner is now the undisputed #1 netminder on what figures to be a top three team in the league. As such, I think that despite the limited number of keepers you're afforded he should be one of them.

Marchand is bound to slow; but by averaging 1.2+ points per game in each of the last four seasons at age 29-32, he did so twice as many times as any other winger dating back to 1990-91. Expanding the list to centers, we see five did so three times: Peter Forsberg, Mark Messier, Joe Sakic, Wayne Gretzky, and Adam Oates. Forsberg is a poor comparison, as his career basically ended right afterwards; but Gretzky had two more 100+ point seasons, Sakic had one more, plus two 87 point campaigns, and Messier tallied 99 once and 84 twice. Perhaps Marchand might have one or two more 100+ point pace seasons in him, or, even if he doesn't, he still should produce well enough to make the cut.

Who, then, gets the last spot? Gaudreau has the highest career achievements; however, he's looked lost over the past couple of seasons. Kaprizov has the talent to be superb, yet he's stuck on the Wild, where he only managed 18:18 per game and 3:14 per game on the PP, which are not ice time numbers that will lead to top tier stats. Moreover, with the Wild handcuffed by cap penalties due to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts, that will hurt their ability to surround him with other talent. That leaves Point, who I believe is the third keeper. When Nikita Kucherov has played over the past three seasons, Point has been there right alongside him, which is huge. Point's new contract shows the team envisions him as a key piece to their future. Yes, Point wasn't great in 2019-20 when he did play with Kucherov. However, looking at the playoffs over the past two seasons plus the 2018-19 regular season, it's impossible to deny the chemistry existing between the two. If we look at the players who, like Point, have averaged a point per game twice in 15+ playoff games by age 25, we get five others: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kucherov, Patrick Kane, and Jaromir Jagr. That's great company in which to find oneself, and easily reinforces that Point is the correct third keeper. To review, the three would be Lehner, Marchand and Point. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Sean)

My league is 12 teams, 23 Players (max 4 goalies), H2H, Keep 15 (max 2 goalies), with starting lineups of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 3F, 4D, 2G, plus 8 Bench, 2 IR+ and categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, HIT, BLK, W, SV, SV%, SHO. Below is my roster. I've got a good young team that made the playoffs this past season. Ultimately though, my goaltending killed me, with a Mrazek injury, and Hart having a terrible season. But I feel I am well positioned to compete moving forward over the next few years.

C – Auston Matthews, Elias Pettersson, Evgeni Malkin, Nazem Kadri, Jack Hughes (LW), Sam Bennett (LW, RW)
LW – Andrei Svechnikov (RW), Kirill Kaprizov (RW), Kevin Fiala (RW)
RW – David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen, Timo Meier (LW), Kaapo Kakko
D – Dougie Hamilton, Morgan Rielly, Thomas Chabot, Rasmus Dahlin, Jacob Trouba, Brendan Dillon
G – Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Carter Hart, Petr Mrazek

The 12 I see as "for sure" keepers are Matthews, Pettersson, Hughes, Svechnikov, Kaprizov, Pasta, Rantanen, Hamilton, Rielly, Chabot, Dahlin, and Shesterkin . For the rest, I'd like to keep my best group while facilitating some 2-for-1 deals on fringe guys; but that can be tough to do this time of year, with other GMs trying the same thing. Here is my assessment of my team, position by position.

For goalies, take my word in that for this league it's imperative I keep two goalies, as otherwise you get scraps or are forced to reach at the draft. I am a huge believer in Shesterkin moving forward. But I've got a tough decision between Sorokin and Hart for the final slot. I think Sorokin will be the better goalie long term, and love any goalie in a Barry Trotz system. But he may not get the starts needed in the short term, playing with Varlamov, as our league favors volume. Hart had a terrible season, but I still believe he will be very good, and he remains the undisputed starter in Philly. In an ideal world I would trade Hart, but hate to sell a guy at his low point. 

For defensemen, I think my top 4 is pretty well set. But I suppose I could keep only three, making it so I could keep an extra goalie or forward.

For forwards, my top seven keepers I feel are fairly easy choices. But that leaves two slots (or perhaps three slots, if I only keep three d-men and not three goalies) for the likes of Malkin, Fiala, Meier, and Kakko. I love Malkin, and, when healthy, he is an absolute beast in our league setup. But his age and health make me think it could be time to move on. Meier can be great in our setup, but I wonder if San Jose will continue to drag him down. I feel like Fiala is on the brink of stardom, but also have concerns about his ice time and usage in Minnesota. And Kakko has the 2nd overall pick pedigree, but was by far the weakest forward on my team last year.

What would you do in terms of my keepers?

Of the 12 you listed, I'm fully on board with all but Pettersson, Rielly, Chabot, and Dahlin. Pettersson I worry is talented but not putting forth the effort needed to shine. Rielly is too unselfish and focused on "real life" hockey factors that don't benefit fantasy teams enough. Chabot has failed to become a true top flight d-man and has been especially weak on the PP, receiving the fourth most PP Time among all defensemen over the past two seasons but ranking only tied for 34th in PPPts. Plus, Ottawa has Erik Brannstrom looming as a top prospect who could eat away at Chabot's beneficial deployment. Note that I'm not saying any of these guys are definite non-keeps, only that unlike the other eight I don't see them as locked in. Dahlin is super skilled, but is going to suffer due to lack of talent around him.

One player I'd definitely make room for, and who you didn't mention, is Bennett given that Florida just signed him for four years, essentially ensuring he's locked into the top six. Sure, he might not be on PP1; but his PIM and HIT are superb and Florida is deep enough that its PP2 might be decent. I think he grabs a spot from Kakko, who has looked shaky at best and is not a huge risk of breaking out, as he still might not have a place in the top six even with the departure of Pavel Buchnevich. Meier also is concerning in that he's taken a step back each of the past two seasons. Even his great HIT total dropped considerably last season. But someone has to score in San Jose and I like him better than Kakko. Malkin and Fiala are both keeps, as Malkin's risk/reward is too enticing and Fiala seems like he's on the cusp of stardom even in the ice time limiting confines of Minnesota. So I'd keep Bennett, Malkin and Fiala, plus maybe Meier.

The question is what to do about goalies. It's all but assured that no matter how well either Islander goalie plays neither will get 50 starts if the other stays healthy. Still, when Sorokin plays he'll be superb and you can find goalies who see a lot of pucks easier than you can find ones who reliably stop a very high percentage of them – that is, it's easier to find high volume goalies than high skill goalies. Hart is still the de facto #1 in Philly, with a vastly improved defense in front of him. It's a tough call whether to keep him or Sorokin, since unfortunately you can't keep three. What I'd honestly do is try to dangle both in one for one or multiplayer trades and see who nets you the better return, keeping the other.

So your definite keepers are Shesterkin, one of Hart or Sorokin, Matthews, Hughes, Svechnikov, Kaprizov, Pasta, Rantanen, Malkin, Bennett, Fiala, and Hamilton. That leaves three more spots for Pettersson, Meier, Rielly, Chabot, and Dahlin. Probably Pettersson is a keep, since although he might disappoint he has the best chance out of the five to be very good very soon. Rielly offers 50-point downside, but the question, as noted above, is if he will be place scoring ahead of other factors that don't help fantasy teams. In the end, I think he's a keep since Toronto is so potent and Rielly probably does enough to justify his spot. You can then only keep one of Meier, Chabot and Dahlin. I'd let Meier go, as your forwards are well covered and I worry that even if he does rebound somewhat his progress will be slowed by being in the fantasy wasteland that San Jose has become. If San Jose is bad, Buffalo will be worse, and likely for longer. Dahlin's unquestioned talent notwithstanding, his 2020-21 stats were dreadful and hurt fantasy teams more than helped them, especially with his horrid +/-, which doesn't figure to improve. Also, his HIT, BLK and PIM are just okay for a d-man. As crazy as it sounds, I'm letting Dahlin go and opting for Chabot. In a few years Dahlin likely will be head and shoulders above Chabot; but those will be a long few years during which Dahlin will negatively impact fantasy teams. Given the totality of circumstances, He's a painful, but proper non-keep, with the three spots going to Pettersson, Rielly and Chabot, unless of course you trade away Dahlin, who still has name value, plus one of Sorokin or Hart, and get, in return, either an upgrade at net or on defense. If the upgrade is a goalie, you keep him and trade away the other of Hart or Sorokin, while if the upgrade is a defensemen, you keep him over Chabot, plus keep the one of Hart or Sorokin that you didn't deal. Good luck!

Question #5 (from DobberHockey Forums)

In my league there are 18 teams and we have 28 player rosters, with scoring of a goal or an assist being worth one point, a goalie win worth two points, and a shutout worth two points plus an extra three. Stats for solely the top ten forwards, top four defensemen and top goalie count.

For all teams, any players with fewer than 82 games played are automatically protected from being drafted, and then we can name an additional ten players who are protected. We can lose only up to two of the non-protected players, with the rest being automatically kept. In addition to any of the players automatically kept due to games played, we must keep one player at each position.

My team is as follows, with all automatically protected players denoted with a "*" symbol:

G- Tuukka Rask, Igor Shesterkin*, Thatcher Demko*
D- Rasmus Dahlin, Erik Brannstrom*, Ryan Pulock, Damon Severson, Shayne Gostisbehere, Mike Matheson, Vince Dunn, Scott Perunovich*
F- Mark Scheifele, Teuvo Teravainen, Brayden Schenn, JT Miller, Jonathan Toews, Logan Couture, Jack Roslovic, Jake DeBrusk, Troy Terry, Andreas Johnsson, Andrew Mangiapane, Paul Stastny, Nolan Patrick, Daniel Sprong, Brett Howden, Lawson Crouse, Bobby Ryan

My locks for the ten protected lists are Rask (forced to keep), Dahlin, Scheifele, Teravainen, Miller, and Schenn, leaving me with four more spots. Who would you keep?

Picking four more guys is difficult because you have players who you'd be hoping would rebound (i.e., Toews, Couture, Ghost, and Stastny), as well as some you'd be looking to make an impact (Terry, Dunn, Patrick, Sprong, and Roslovic), plus others who have an opportunity but for whom the talent might not be there (Matheson, Mangiapane, Pulock, and Debrusk).

You could just take the four players from any of the lists and be done; however, I think just as it makes sense in investing to diversify one's portfolio, so too does it when determining keepers. If you put all your eggs in one basket, you could hit a home run but also strike out. As such, I believe what you need to do is take, if not one player for each group, then at least players from more than one group, as that way you balance risk.

In the first group, I like Toews and Ghost the best. Couture is still solid; however, this is a player who had a streak of ten straight seasons of a scoring pace ranging from 57 to 71 points, but then last season saw his scoring rate dip all the way down to 48 despite his highest ice time per game of his career. He's not the problem, San Jose is, but it's enough of a problem to stay away from Couture. Stastny looks like he's no longer a fantasy producer, as he saw top six and PP1 time in 2020-21 and yet barely managed a point per every other game. He'll still get more of the same for the time being, but hoping for a rebound from him is wishful thinking.

In the second group, Dunn and Roslovic stick out. Patrick might hit the lottery if he ends up centering Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty; however, that's a huge if, what with Vegas still having the capable Chandler Stephenson and likely being in contention to get Jack Eichel. Yes, they gave up Cody Glass to get Patrick, so they probably want to give him a chance to succeed; however, I think he's not keeper material but rather a redraft, if draftable at all. Sprong had a quietly solid season and performed well when thrust into the top six, but as it stands he'd need an injury to succeed and banking on that is not a wise proposition when talking about protected players. Terry might flank Trevor Zegras, whom I've mentioned looked great at the end of 2020-21, with point per game production in his last eight games and over three SOG per game in his last nine contests. But Terry also might be put on another line and while Zegras was knocking it out of the park in those nine games Terry had four points and not even two SOG per game. He's intriguing, but not enough to protect.

In the last group, the only name that beckons is Mangiapane, who's performed well thus far and will be hitting his breakout threshold of 200 career games during 2020-21. Pulock has always tantalized, and now that Nick Leddy is gone he's seemingly more intriguing. But if we know anything about Barry Trotz it's that he's set in his ways; so if Trotz envisioned Pulock as a PP1 QB, he'd have already used Pulock in that role. Instead, look for Noah Dobson to man the first unit, with Pulock continuing to be deployed in circumstances not favorable to scoring. DeBrusk has had chances to succeed but just does not look like he's going to turn into anything more than a player who's ceiling is 50 points. Matheson looked quite good at times in 2020-21 and Kris Letang is an injury waiting to happen. Matheson isn't getting PP time and his OZ% is too low to be a reliable scorer.

The question is which four to keep of Toews, Ghost, Dunn, Roslovic, and Mangiapane – which one of them is the odd man out? Roslovic is arguably the top center for Columbus right now, and as such he could be on a line with Patrik Laine and/or Jakub Voracek. He's also right at his Breakout Threshold. If Arizona didn't have big plans for Ghost, they wouldn't have gone out and obtained him, plus Ghost had 19 points in his last 32 games in 2020-21, for a 48 point scoring pace. Dunn is the presumed PP1 QB for the Kraken, and he had 11 points in his last 14 games for St. Louis in 2020-21. Toews missed all of last season; however, the failure of Dylan Strome to thrive in a top line center role assures Toews will step right back into a top six role and be on PP1. I think the odd man out is likely Mangiapane. Yes he's at his BT and he looked amazing in the World Championships; but as it stands he's the only one who looks like he won't get PP1 time, plus the others seem better that him on paper. This way you still diversify somewhat by taking players from two groups. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Kevin)

I'm in a keep seven, nine team (tenth being added this season which will choose seven keepers from the players not kept) league with a $118M salary cap for the starters, which consist of 12F, 5D, 2G, plus 9 bench spots. Next season we're upping the keepers to nine.

I've settled on the following seven as my keepers: Brad Marchand, Artemi Panarin, David Pastrnak, Nikita Kucherov, Cale Makar, Elias Pettersson, Mikko Rantanen. They comprise about half of my total budget for starters, meaning I'll have $58M to spent for the other 12 who'll be in my starting lineup. So although I suspect I'll have the best keepers of any team for the next several years, I worry about my salary situation.

The other keepers for the other eight teams in the league, excluding the seven that will be kept by the new tenth team are: (1) Leon Draisaitl, Mark Stone, Nicolaj Ehlers, Quinn Hughes, Connor Hellebuyck, Alex DeBrincat, Darcy Kuemper (2) Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Mika Zibanejad, Sean Couturier, Seth Jones, Jakob Chychrun (3) Brock Boeser, Nathan Mackinnon, Mitch Marner, Sidney Crosby, Shea Theodore, Trevor Zegras, Mathew Barzal (4) Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Huberdeau, John Carlson, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Kyle Connor, Adam Fox, Tyson Barrie (5) Brayden Point, Roman Josi, Rasmus Dahlin, Charlie McAvoy, Johnny Gaudreau, John Klingberg, Alexis Lafrenière (6) Evander Kane, Sebastian Aho, Alex Ovechkin, Victor Hedman, Morgan Rielly, Jake Guentzel, JT Miller (7) Aleksander Barkov, Tyler Seguin, Mark Scheifele, Tim Stutzle, Aaron Ekblad, Thomas Chabot, Miro Heiskanen (8) Sam Reinhart, Auston Matthews, Max Pacioretty, Andrei Svechnikov, Nicklas Backstrom, Dougie Hamilton, Teuvo Teravainen

I need to spend an average of $4.83M per player for the remaining starters. Given this, and the other players being kept, who are players I should target in my draft?

First off, you didn't indicate league categories. That's a big deal, since it greatly affects player value. For purposes of answering the question tough, I'll treat this as a points only league, with scoring for goalies consisting of some combination of W, SV, SV%, GAA, and SO. Why do I assume it's a points-only league? If it wasn't, I'd have to figure that guys like Brady Tkachuk and/or Tom Wilson would be keepers.

Before deciding on players to target, the thing to do is have a rough idea of how the remaining money is to be allocated. I think you should do a sliding scale approach in terms of your spending; and by that I mean you should still target a few expensive guys (i.e., $6M and up), as you can compensate by snagging bargains. In other words, although $4.83M is indeed the numerical average of what you are permitted to spend on your remaining starters, you shouldn't feel as though you need to stay at or near that specific number with the majority of your picks. Instead, try to land on players with a range of prices.

Who are some "expensive" guys I might target? He's always a risky own due to injuries and he's best in multicat, but I think Kris Letang at $7.25M is good value, especially since if he gets hurt he won't count against your cap. I also like Patrice Bergeron at $6.875M. Yes, he's slowing, but he's still locked into a top line and PP1 with superb players. I also like his teammate Taylor Hall at $6M, as even if he's not on the top line he'll get PP1 time and showed he still can produce with 14 points in 16 games after coming to Boston. Lastly, former Bruin Torey Krug at $6.5M seems solid, especially given that he was figuring things out as the season was ending, with ten points (5 PPPts) in his last seven games. With the injury to Shea Weber, Jeff Petry ($6.25M) seems like great value.

Others who'd cost more than your $4.83M average could include the likes of Pavel Buchnevich at $5.8M through 2024-25, as he was already starting to shine and could truly blossom once Vladimir Tarasenko is shipped out of St. Louis. I like the money and term for both Travis Konecny ($5.5M through 2024-25) and Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5.4M through 2025-26). Konecny had an off season; however, he's paid too much and produced enough in 2019-20 to show he's the real deal, while Bjorkstrand managed to up his point total last season amid the dumpster fire that was Columbus and seems on a fast track to stardom. And after what I saw in the playoffs, I'm on board with Ondrej Palat at $5.3M, as although he is up for a new deal after 2021-22, he'll likely sign for not huge money and it seems Tampa has him earmarked for playing alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins inked a team-friendly $5.12M deal that runs through 2028-29. He had an off year; but at worst he's a PP1 fixture and could also still skate alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl at ES. Turning to goalies, I like Robin Lehner and Thatcher Demko at identical $5M price tags, Lehner through 2024-25 and Demko for one additional season. Morgan Rielly comes in at that same price tag; and although he's a UFA after this season I'm guessing he re-ups with Toronto at a discount to try and keep the team's core together. For a longer deal, there's Samuel Girard, who'll also be paid $5M per season but through 2026-27 and who proved he can still score despite the large shadow cast by Cale Makar. Yet another $5M man is Jonathan Marchessault, who's nothing super special but who is inked through 2023-24 and has a floor of 55-60 points, which is pretty decent. Conor Garland's new deal calls for him to be paid $4.9M per season through 2025-26 and if he gets on PP1 in Vancouver he could thrive, as this was someone who scored at a 65 point pace last season in the offensive death valley that was Arizona. Elias Lindholm at $4.85M through 2023-24 is superb value since, as I noted in a Goldipucks piece, he appears to have a 70 point floor. Lastly there's Kevin Fiala, who signed for $5.1M for this season and has looked like a star in the making. He also probably won't be paid too much more in future seasons due to the Wild's cap crunch.

In the next tier is Vincent Trocheck at $4.75M; but as noted in a Goldipucks piece, he likely overachieved in 2020-21 and he's up for a new deal after this season. Making the same money per season, but signed through 2022-23 is Tyler Bertuzzi, who, when healthy, seems to be the glue that keeps Detroit's top line producing. At $4.5M there's Tomas Tatar, who should be on the top line and PP1 in New Jersey, Frederick Andersen, who's the presumed #1 in Carolina, where he could resurrect his career, Mike Hoffman, who despite what seemed like a lousy season had 15 points in his last 16 games, and lastly Ryan Strome, who's been tethered to Artemi Panarin, which is a surefire path to success, although he likely won't be with the Rangers upon his deal expiring after this season. Tyler Toffoli ($4.25M through 2023-24) likely overachieved and has company now with Hoffman and Cole Caufield; but he'll keep a spot in the top six and should still find success. Then there's David Perron at $4M. He's a huge bargain, but only for the time being, as he's a UFA after the 2021-22 season.

Some solid options for those making $1.5-4M include Bryan Rust, Roope Hintz, Dominik Kubalik, Tristan Jarry, Pavel Zacha, Yegor Sharangovich, Denis Gurianov, Anthony Duclair, Kasperi Kapanen, Pavel Francouz, MacKenzie Blackwood, Chandler Stephenson, Jack Roslovic, and Andrew Mangiapane. RFAs Max Comtois and Drake Batherson figure to be at or near this range, in which case they're great assets. There's also Ilya Sorokin, who, although in a time-share, should continue to put up great stats.

Lastly there are the many solid options who are still on ELCs, most of whom, however, only have one year left, namely Josh Norris, Martin Necas, Nick Suzuki, Jason Robertson, Joel Farabee, Jack Hughes, Erik Brannstrom, Kirby Dach, Cal Petersen, and Noah Dobson. Grabbing any of them would be shrewd. The biggest bargain might be Marco Rossi, who could be the #1 center in Minnesota and is on his ELC through 2023-24. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Gerry)

I'm in a ten team, H2H league with the s G, A, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, W, GAA,SV%, SHO as categories. Starting lineups are 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 1F, 5D, 2G, plus we get 6 Bench, 1IR, 4IR+, 1NA.

I came in 4th this year with the following roster: 

C – Nico Hischier, Elias Pettersson 

C/RW/LW – Robby Fabbri

C/LW – Tomas Hertl, Chandler Stephenson, Carter Verhaeghe 

LW – Tanner Pearson, Chris Krieder, Alex Ovechkin, Max Pacioretty

LW/RW – Kevin Fiala, Max Comtois, David Perron, Tyler Bertuzzi 

RW – Pavel Buchnevich, T.J. Oshie, David Pastrnak 

D – Roman Josi, Filip Hronek, Neal Pionk, Torey Krug, Jakob Chychrun, Jacob Trouba, 

G – Mike Smith, Philipp Grubauer, Darcy Kuemper, Chris Driedger, Petr Mrazek

We are allowed 10 Keepers. I seemed to have a lot of injuries this year which certainly held me back, but others did as well. Do I need to start a rebuild or can I still challenge? Either way, who would your keepers be?

You sniffed it out – it's rebuild time. This is partly because I don't see your team as being able to win, but even more so because you have several players (Ovi, Kreider, Patches, Perron, Oshie, Smith) whose value is only going to drop, perhaps sharply, over the next couple of seasons, making it so you need to sell now or risk getting pennies on the dollar as early as this time next year.

Core pieces to keep are Pettersson, Fiala, Comtois, Bertuzzi, Buchnevich, Pasta, and Chychrun. I'm not a big fan of Stephenson, as he's only good if he keeps his gig, which is not assured. Verhaeghe could also just as easily find himself outside the top six and be a one-year wonder. Hronek is pretty solid; but as I've said before in this column, he strikes me as a Cam Fowler or Tyler Myers type who will have more real life value than actual value, and be a 35 to at best 45 point guy. Moritz Seider probably will be the fantasy d-man to own on Detroit. Pionk is intriguing too, and great for this league, but I worry that just as the Jets have resisted playing Nikolaj Ehlers on PP1 the same fate might befall Pionk despite how well he did in that role in 2019-20. He's the toughest non-keep, and I couldn't fault you if you decided you wanted him over Comtois, although Comtois seems like a multicat monster in the making. As for goalies, they're either stuck on Seattle or not the right type for a rebuild.

However you slice it, that leaves you with room for three more keepers, which you obtain by trading Ovi, Perron, Pacioretty, Oshie, Josi, Krug, Smith and Kuemper, plus perhaps others if there are takers. Who should you try to land in return? I'd diversify – that is, get a goalie, forward, and defenseman.

In net you'd want a goalie who's still young but either has the #1 job or a clear path toward getting it. Your best bets probably are one of Juuse Saros, Thatcher Demko, or Igor Shesterkin. For a forward, you should try to turn some of your assets into Brady Tkachuk, as even though you don't count PIM he's gold in this league, and will be for many years to come. Lastly I'd try to get a stud defenseman like Cale Makar. Other players you could seek to obtain are Mika Zibanejad, but he's perhaps a bit old. I'd also see about landing Kirill Kaprizov, as although there is a risk he'd go back to the KHL he seems like a star in the making. It might also be a good time to kick the tires on getting Jack Eichel, as you can wait for him to get healthy and settle in on his new team. If Makar isn't obtainable try to land Adam Fox. Good luck!

Question #8 (from Marc-Vincent)

I'm in a 10-team roto league starting 3C, 6W, 5D, 1UTIL, 2G, plus 6BN. Stats are as follows: G, A, P, +/-, PPG, PPA, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO. Skater stats are multiplied by 1.25; as an example, let's say I finish first in goals, I would get 12.5 instead of 10. In addition to our main roster, we have a prospect pool, with prospects defined as player with fewer than 82 NHL games played.

In between seasons, we need to bring down our roster to 15 keepers and 15 prospects. In doing so, all teams are required to drop at least one player that finished – according to Yahoo – among the top 100 players in the previous season. Prospects are players with less than 82 games played.

I would like to contend in 2 to 3 years – that is, I am not looking to win now, but rather to build my team to be in the thick of things by 2023-24 or 2024-25 at the latest. With that in mind, here's who I intend to keep as non-prospects:

F: Elias Pettersson, Matthew Barzal, Brayden Point, Mikko Rantanen, Johnny Gaudreau, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk

D: Morgan Reilly, Tyson Barrie, Adam Fox

G: Darcy Kuemper, Tristan Jarry

My "top 100" drop is Sam Reinhart.

Here is the remainder of my non-prospect players, from whom I need to pick two, unless of course you think there are one or more players here who should replace any of the 13 I've listed:

F: Dominik Kubalik, Drake Batherson, Dylan Strome, Robert Thomas, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Filip Zadina, Conor Garland

D: Rasmus Ristolainen

G: Cam Talbot, Casey Desmith, Jake Allen, Matt Murray

And finally, here's my prospect pool so you know who I have coming up in the following years:

Jason Robertson, Oliver Wahlstrom, Rasmus Sandin, Kaapo Kähkonen, Morgan Frost, Jamie Drysdale, Cole Caufield, Jeremy Swayman, Filip Gustavsson, Marco Rossi, Dylan Holloway, Samuel Poulin, Brogan Rafferty, Conor Timmins, Alexandre Alexeyev

What do you think of my team and who would you keep as the 15 non-prospects?

Let's look first at the defensemen and goalies you identified as keeps. I definitely think they're better than those in your "remainder" pile; but I'm not sure Reinhart should be omitted. I see him flourishing on Florida, either as a wing on Aleksander Barkov's line or centering Jonathan Huberdeau; Plus he'll get time on a potent PP1. Given what he was able to do amidst the train wreck that was the Sabres over the past couple of seasons, he has a 70-point floor and could be a point per game guy.

Who then would be removed in favor of Reinhart? That's tough. Gaudreau is floundering, yet even though he's been a shell of himself he still produced at a 70-point pace over the past two seasons and he could bounce back, whether on Calgary or on a new team. Losing a guy who had 99 points in a season is a tough pill to swallow. Matthew Tkachuk has seen his scoring drop for two straight seasons but still is so superb due to his stat stuffing. Barzal is doing the best he can for a defense-first team. However, he doesn't shoot that much, doesn't hit, and has seen his PPPt pace drop. Pettersson also struggled last season. Yes, he got hurt, but even before that he wasn't faring too well despite staring 75% of his shifts in the offensive zone. In fact, he might not be an option to drop as I'm not sure he's even within the top 100 on Yahoo for last season.

If it was me I'd swap in Reinhart for Pettersson or Barzal; but Reinhart is not so vastly superior to the other two that it's a "slam dunk" decision to keep one of them over him. As such, if it's your preference to not keep Reinhart I can get behind that. I just wanted to raise this in case it might prompt you to rethink your "top 100" non-keep decision.

Looking at who should be the other two keeps, let's get the easy part out of the way – you don't pick either of the two from the leftover goalies or defenceman, as while DeSmith is Jarry insurance, he's also 29 and if Jarry fails the Pens probably get someone else rather than running with DeSmith. Talbot is tempting in that you have Kahkonen so you'd have the Minnesota net covered, but I'm not sure I have faith in Talbot in being a #1 or even 1A. Murray, as we saw last season, is not a great goalie anymore, if he ever was one. Although Allen is one of the best back-ups in the league, he's a back-up to Carey Price so he has no upside. As for Risto, with the moves the Flyers made they clearly envision him in a shutdown role, and I'd be surprised if he even tallies 30 points. Plus, whereas Risto used to be a great multicat guy, he probably will see his SOG total plummet and PPPts vanish, leaving him strong just in HIT and BLK, where you can find plenty of guys to cover.

The focus will then be on forwards. Looking at the eight you intend to keep, I think they're all better than what you have left, meaning this boils down to picking two from the seven in your "remainder" pile. Let's look at each.

Thomas and Strome have disappointed, although neither one is at a point – yet – where they are at risk of being called a bust since Strome is just about hitting his breakout threshold and Thomas will hit his at some point this season. Could one or both be doing great things in a couple of years? It's possible; but in a situation like this where you can only keep two guys, some won't make the cut and I think both of these guys are not keeps. Zadina has shown flashes of great play and he figures to be in the top six equation for a Detroit team that is primed to vastly improve by the time you'd be looking to compete. In a keep two the other options you have seem like safer bets. It's a shame Zadina barely surpassed the 82 game limit for being a prospect; but as it stands, he's not a keep.

I'm also not wild about Kubalik. For whatever reason Chicago is not content to give him ice time either at ES or on PP1, this despite him being a solid player who shoots a lot and has a nose for scoring, as can be seen not only by his PP scoring (tied for 41st in forward PPPts despite only getting the 81st most PP time among forwards) but also his IPPs, which have been above 70% in each of his two seasons. With him I'm afraid he's just going to continue to have a role that's too limited, which probably means he's not a keeper, although let's still put him as a maybe for now.

Batherson was covered in one of my Goldipucks columns, where I highlighted his explosive scoring, increasing SOG, high IPPs, and success on a bottom five ranked PP. In two or three years both he and the Sens should be vastly improved. I think he's a lock as one of your two other keepers.

That leaves Garland and Bjorkstrand. I do think it's between them, as I'd take either over Kubalik, so he's officially out of the running. Both had successful seasons on poor teams, although as bad as Arizona was, Columbus was worse, tallying 134 goals versus 150 for Arizona. I think I give the narrow edge to Bjorkstrand because he hits a bit more and has a track record of being a high volume shooter. He also was held off PP1 by John Tortorella, but should be able to land a spot there under the new regime. Garland saw over a minute more PP time per game than Bjorkstrand in 2020-21, but it's not clear whether he will have a spot on PP1, unless it's over Bo Horvat, who, although has not shined in the area (7th most PP minutes of all forwards over the last three seasons, 48th most PPPts) would seem to have the inside track to keep that role. I think you can go either way, but I'm picking Bjorkstrand due to his edge in HIT, SOG track record, and potential if/when he gets on PP1. Good luck!

Question #9 (from Marc-Vincent)

I'm in a 10-team capped keeper league where we can keep 8 total players. We run a points only league (G, A = 1 point each). Cap is currently at $81.5M and we base our player cost on current salary.

For my defense I plan to keep Victor Hedman ($7.875M), Morgan Rielly ($5M) and Jamie Drysdale ($0.925M). I also have Noah Dobson ($0.895M) as an option. Would you consider keeping Dobson over Rielly knowing this is Rielly's last year at $5M and he will command a considerable raise? I also believe Dobson could see an increase in TOI and potential PP time with the changes that have been made to the rearguard core on the Isle. Another option would be to keep Dobson over Drysdale considering Drysdale is very young and on a poor team that will struggle to score.

For my forwards I plan on Keeping Elias Pettersson (RFA), Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75M), Mark Schiefele ($6.125M), Drake Batherson (RFA). I also have Kirby Dach ($0.925M) that I was considering keeping over Johnny Hockey. Calgary was a dumpster fire last year and I'm not confident this year will be much better. Chicago on the other hand made some intriguing moves and could surprise a lot of people. Would Dach be the keep here considering the upside and cost savings?

You've definitely thought this through, and there's a lot of logic in your assessments. Starting with defense, I'm keeping Rielly. For one, you get his great value this year. Beyond that, I think he pulls a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and re-signs with Toronto for a lot less than market value. Rielly has already demonstrated he's a team first player, for example by ceding PP1 to Tyson Barrie in 2019-20. He also focused somewhat less on scoring to be able to better help the team. I believe he continues this pattern of unselfishness and inks a team-friendly deal that will be enough to merit keeping him. Plus, if he does not do so, you can always opt not to keep him this time next season.

I also like Drysdale over Dobson. Drysdale was very good in the AHL last season and decent in limited NHL action, plus likely will be given the PP1 role and could be next in a line of great recent teen d-men. Dobson isn't a consideration because Barry Trotz is very set in his ways, and those ways are not giving any rearguard the lion's share of PP minutes. Plus, although the Isles are a strong team, the PP isn't their forte. I believe that a full season of Drysdale plus Trevor Zegras will go a long way toward helping Anaheim improve.

For your forwards, I actually like Pettersson in cap leagues more so than non-cap because Vancouver has cap issues, meaning he could sign for a short-term discount. Scheifele offers superb value for point per game downside. Gaudreau is tough to toss back into the pile given his potential, but he's now on a two-season streak of poor outputs. One season I could see as an aberration, but two is tough to dismiss. Still though, his downside is 70 points and he did tally 99 one season. If he gets traded or somehow is able to get motivated again, you'd kick yourself for losing him.

I actually think it comes down to Dach versus Batherson. As I pointed out in a Goldipucks column, I think Batherson has great upside. But he's at his best in multi-cat, not points only. Dach is intriguing, not just because he still has a year left on his ELC but also because when he's played he's been used quite a bit with Alex DeBrincat, and last season Dylan Strome got a shot on that line and faltered. Although Jonathan Toews likely will be back to health, historically he and Patrick Kane have not played on the same line for extended periods of time. As such, the door is open for Dach to hit the jackpot and center the Kane and DeBrincat line. I think that home run potential, plus his already demonstrated scoring ability, give him a narrow edge over Batherson, who should be very good, but more so in the longer run and less so in a points only league. Plus Dach costs less for at least another season. If you feel very strong about Batherson's potential, I could see a universe where he's kept over Gaudreau, although if it was me I'd hold and hope when it comes to Johnny Hockey. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

IMPORTANT NOTE – the next mailbag won't go live until September 29th, so don't send me keeper questions unless you can wait until then to receive your answer. When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.