We have Bubble Keeper Week coming up here in a few days and that's always a fun time of the year. Fantasy leagues generally aren't won in the first five rounds of a draft, but they can often be won at the end of a draft. Fantasy teams can overcome missing on a player or two early on, depending on waiver movement and trade ability. Teams probably cannot overcome missing on a superstar or two being drafted late. Those guys can replace, or complement, the early misses. That is what helps put a fantasy roster over the top.

Before we get to Bubble Keeper Week, I want to talk about some shallower keepers. Not every keeper league is a 16-team, keep-15 league, or a 12-team draft-and-hold or something. Also, with training camps barreling down on us, this may be my last chance to strictly talk about comparing top-end players. So, let's do that.

For this, we'll go off Yahoo!'s ADP. It's all we have right now and is an easy way for readers to double-check where these players are going right now. Their ADP is in parenthesis, rounded up or down.

Sebastian Aho (20^th) vs. Brayden Point (20^th)

Aho has been in the news recently, if indirectly through Jesperi Kotkaniemi's offer sheet. Over his last three seasons, he's been exactly a point-per-game player with 206 points in 206 games. He had 57 points in 56 games in 2021, but his shot rate fell off from over 3.0 to 2.6. That works out to over 30 shots in a full season, and about three goals. If his shot rate doesn't improve in 2021-22, and he can't repeat his 16.2 percent shooting, that goal rate could decline a bit. They also lost Dougie Hamilton and he would have set a career-high in PPPs last season had they played 82 games. Can he repeat that PP success without Hamilton? He is in his prime, as are his likely line mates, so maybe he can. It is a concern, though.

Point's, er, production fell off in 2021 but he was still on pace for 70 points in a full year. Remember that Nikita Kucherov missed the entire season, which was a massive loss for Point: over the last three seasons, the team scores a goal and a half less when Point is on the ice without Kuch compared to when he's on the ice with him (at all strengths). In a season of 1500 minutes played, that would mean about 30 fewer goals scored with Point on the ice, or roughly 20 fewer points for the 25-year-old centre in a full season. So, remember how Point was on pace for 70 points in 82 games last season? If Kuch was around, a good bet would be 90 points in an 82-game season.

It depends on the league. In points-only formats, I may lean Point here. If we're including face-offs and shots, i.e. multi-cat leagues, it may be Aho.

Kyle Connor (51^st) vs. Johnny Gaudreau (52^nd)

As someone who traded for Connor late last season, I am very well aware how uneven his year was. He finished with 26 goals and 50 points in 56 games, which is a wonderful season. He had a stretch in mid-April through mid-May where he had two goals and two points in 10 games. But, we don't ding players with three straight 30-goal seasons, and a fourth would-be 30-goal season in 2021, just because of a bad 10-game stretch. He is as close to a lock on 30 goals, 60 points, and three shots per game as there is in the NHL, outside of Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews, and David Pastrnak. He still has Mark Scheifele as a centre and this Jets team should be their best since Dustin Byfuglien left.

Coincidentally enough, my Ramblings two days ago talked about Calgary's lineup and how Darryl Sutter helped the team. Even with that said, Gaudreau's 82-game pace over the last two seasons is about 24 goals and 70 points. If that's all we get from him, including a shot rate that's fallen a full shot per game over the last two years, it isn't good enough. Not good enough for a 5^th-round pick, and not good enough to pick over Connor. In that sense, we're banking on a rebound from Gaudreau just to be equal to Connor. For Gaudreau to be the pick here, he needs to improve a fairly significant amount; probably over a point-per-game player. I think it's just too much to ask. Unless ADPs change, Connor is the pick here.

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Be sure to head to the Dobber Shop to grab your copy of the 2021 Dobber Hockey Guide!

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Alex DeBrincat (38^th) vs. Steven Stamkos (32^nd)

After a down 2019-20, DeBrincat rebounded in a huge way with 32 goals and 56 points in 52 games this past campaign. That brings him to 119 goals in 286 career games, or 34 goals every 82 games. That he has more career goals than assists is a bit concerning because if he shoots his career average instead of 20.6 percent, he finishes well below a point per game. That is the concern here: how much pullback will there be in his goal scoring? If he falls to 15 percent shooting, that is still a 37-goal season. If he falls to 12 percent, or 10 percent, well… The returns of Kirby Dach and Jonathan Toews should help, though it's hard to imagine DeBrincat improving on his 2021 season. If he can keep anywhere near status quo, he should be just fine. Something close to his 2018-19 season feels right.

We talk about Stamkos falling off, but he has 91 goals and 198 points in his last 177 games. That works out to over 40 goals and about 85 points a season. If he can do that, that is similar or better than what DeBrincat can do. However, Stamkos's injuries are well-known. He missed over 10 games in 2019-20 and missed 18 in 2021. Any fewer than 75 games and Stamkos probably can't out-produce a healthy DeBrincat. That is the big concern with Stamkos, on top of the short offseason for the 31-year-old. He has also shot fewer than three shots per game in three of the last four seasons. Chances are fantasy owners will be able to draft both if they plan their picks right, but DeBrincat seems to be the clear choice.

Morgan Rielly (58^th) vs. Roman Josi (60^th)

Two teams and players headed in opposite directions. Rielly may be in his last season with the Cup-contending Leafs while Roman Josi is in long-term with the re-tooling Predators.

I don't know how many people know this, but Rielly hasn't been great in fantasy for a couple years now. He had 27 points in 47 games in 2019-20 and 35 points in 55 games in 2021. That works out to 50 points every 82 games, but considering the offensive talent on the team, that is under-performance. (He did have 52 points four seasons ago and 72 points three seasons ago, to further my point.) What's more is Rielly has lost nearly a full shot per game off his average the last couple seasons, which I believe is a coaching point in Toronto. In other words, I doubt he gets those shots back. If he's a 50-point, 150-shot defenceman with decent peripherals, well, that's not special.

Josi also had a downturn himself this past season. The thing is, it wasn't part of a trend. He had at least 53 points in five of six seasons prior to 2021. He was injured for a good chunk of the year and still paced out for 56 points/82 games. In other words, in a down year where he was hurt, Josi was still more productive on a per-game basis than Rielly has been in either of the last two seasons. Though Josi's shot rate also fell off, it was over 2.9, or over a full shot per game above Rielly. The only edge Rielly has is in hits, but Josi makes that up in blocks. There may not be a category outside of hits where Rielly outperforms Josi, which makes this decision easy. Josi may end up being one of the better draft values if people keep drafting him around the 10^th defenceman off the board.

Marc-André Fleury (37^th) vs. Igor Shesterkin (39^th)

Fleury won the Vezina in 2021 but he had a couple rough seasons before that; there was a legitimate reason why Vegas brought in Robin Lehner. The concern here is Fleury going from a great Vegas team to a defensively-horrific Chicago team. This was a team with the second worst xGA/60 in 2021 and was 25^th in goals against. If the team doesn't grow by leaps and bounds defensively, he needs to perform in 2021-22 the same he did in the shortened 2021 campaign. Without that, he could be shelled on a fairly regular basis. In before the "durr Toews and Dach" comments, they were similarly awful in 2019-20, and it's arguable how much better the blue line is. He'll likely need to be superhuman to pay off his ADP.

We're all aware the Rangers weren't trash defensively, right? They were mid-pack by xGA/60 at 5-on-5, which isn't great, but certainly isn't Blackhawks-calibre. They were also mid-pack by goals against. K'Andre Miller is a year older, Adam Fox is a Norris candidate, and they should be able to run three good lines. They won't be an elite defensive team, but they should be much better than Chicago, and that matters. While Shesterkin doesn't have a big sample, he's at the top of the league in a number of goaltending metrics for his short career. If we're going to gamble, I'll gamble on the young guy on the better team.

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Colton Parayko signed an eight-year extension worth over $6.5M a season. He has had a couple tough years in a row, largely related to injury. Him being worth this in real life or in cap leagues will hinge upon his ability to rebound. His fantasy value largely derives from peripherals and being able to complement those with 30 points. He can do that this year, provided he stays on the ice. It may still not be worth it in cap leagues, though.