Ramblings: Mittelstadt, Farabee Sign; Players Being Drafted Too Low in Yahoo (Sept 3)

Ian Gooding

2021-09-03

The Sabres have signed Casey Mittelstadt to a three-year contract with an AAV of $2.5 million. Mittelstadt finished fourth on the Sabres in scoring with 22 points in 41 games. That may not seem noteworthy, but he finished the season with nine goals and 17 points of the final 22 games of the season.

Mittelstadt's fantasy value definitely improved under new coach Don Granato, although he received additional opportunity because Jack Eichel wasn't in the lineup. Before Eichel's season-ending injury, Mittelstadt averaged just over 12 minutes of icetime (when he was in the lineup and not on the taxi squad). After Eichel's injury, Mittelstadt averaged nearly 17 minutes.

Even though Buffalo will probably be a tire fire of a team, someone will have to take on scoring line responsibility. Even if Eichel is not traded, he may be out of the lineup anyway if he undergoes neck surgery. That could vault Mittelstadt up to the top line and secure first-unit power-play minutes. As a result, Mittelstadt has deep sleeper potential. He doesn't even appear on the Yahoo ADP list, so I'd have to think he'll be available at around pick 200 if your draft goes that deep. Just beware of plus-minus, which will probably be an issue for any Sabres regular.   

The Sabres also signed Henri Jokiharju to the exact same contract as Mittelstadt (three years, $2.5 million AAV). That leaves Rasmus Dahlin as the only Sabre RFA yet to sign.  

The Flyers have signed Joel Farabee to a six-year contract with an AAV of $5.0 million. Farabee has one year left on his existing contract worth $925,000 before this new one kicks in. Farabee led the Flyers with 20 goals last season while finishing fifth in overall scoring with 38 points.

A total of 17 of Farabee's 20 goals were at even-strength, which was tied for 15th in the league in that category. One look at that stat would suggest that Farabee could benefit from additional power-play time. Although the Flyers' first and second power-play units don't vary in icetime as much as other teams' units, Farabee was mainly used on the second unit. I'm not sure how this will all shake out, but contract decisions on Claude Giroux (one more season) and James van Riemsdyk (two more seasons) could affect Farabee.

It's also worth mentioning that Farabee started the season with 24 points in 25 games, but finished with 14 points in his last 30 games. He was playing in his second NHL season, so some inconsistency is expected. Farabee has a 170 ADP in Yahoo, behind or around names such as Calle Jarnkrok, Yegor Sharangovich, and Frank Vatrano, so he has the opportunity to deliver great value.

If you participate in any fantasy football leagues, you might already know that vaccination status could matter. NFL teams that have a COVID outbreak will need to forfeit their games if they cannot be rescheduled within the 18-week schedule.

The NHL's system was announced on Thursday. The most significant news is that teams can suspend unvaccinated players without pay if they are unable to participate in club activities. Since vaccination status is a medical record and is thus normally treated as confidential, I doubt you'll have that type of information for your fantasy draft if you are choosing between two similarly-ranked players. Yet if a player is suspended, or even if any NHL players are as outspoken against getting the jab as certain NFL players are, then you'll know about it.

Have a listen to the latest Keeping Karlsson 32 Beats podcast, where Ben Burnett chats with Islanders beat writer Arthur Staple of The Athletic. They discuss how the Isles shape up after they finally announced their signings earlier this week.

Now that I've completed a few mock drafts on the Yahoo site, I've gotten a feel for which players will be available at which spots. There will probably be more live drafters than autopickers at the real drafts, so the draft results won't necessarily follow a particular pattern. Having said that, there are still numerous players that I believe are falling too far in drafts. If you can pick the following players in the right spot, they can deliver great value for your team.  

Tristan Jarry (Yahoo ADP: 113)

No doubt a lot of fantasy owners still have that impression of Jarry's shaky play in the playoff series against the Islanders. Maybe that's why I was able to draft Jarry at 109 in one mock draft and at 129 in another. After a rough start, Jarry ended the season fourth in goaltender wins. The ratios might be average, but the Penguins decided not to bring in anyone who would push Jarry for starts, so the volume should be there again. On average, Jarry is the 23rd goalie being drafted, behind the likes of Kevin Lankinen and Mackenzie Blackwood, neither of whom will start as many games and for teams not considered as strong as Pittsburgh.

Patrik Laine (Yahoo ADP: 137)

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Fantasy owners are fed up with Laine. That's why it might be the right time to acquire him. We're not penciling him in for 40 goals anymore (which is a weird statement to make when he's only 23 years old). The positive here is that John Tortorella is now out of the picture, and new coach Brad Larsen may allow Laine to play his game. I picked Laine in the 12th round of my most recent mock draft. Assuming that's one of your later rounds, there's a strong probability that you'll eventually drop your 12th-round pick during the season. Why not swing for the fences with the pick?

Kevin Fiala (Yahoo ADP: 142)

I've picked Fiala more than once in mock drafts and have been complimented multiple times on that pick. In one draft I took him at 136, and in another I was able to let him fall all the way to 156. Fiala has the potential to be a top-30 scorer while reaching at least 0.8 PTS/GP over each of the past two seasons (a 65-70-point pace). Those who choose him may need to be patient, as he is generally a slow starter who becomes a point-per-game player during the second half of the season.  

Teuvo Teravainen (Yahoo ADP: 142)

Teravainen was another pick I received multiple stick taps for in my last mock draft. I suspect he is flying under the radar because the projections have heavily weighted last season's numbers (15 PTS in 21 GP) when he spent considerable time on IR. Previous to that, Teravainen had scored at a 76-point pace in each of his last two seasons. Having Teravainen back for a full season with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov could be huge for everyone involved.  

Ryan Pulock (Yahoo ADP: 156)

By the time Pulock is generally being picked, most defensemen on the first-unit power play are already long gone. He wasn't rosterable last season, scoring just two goals and 17 points in 56 games. However, he showed more flashes of offensive brilliance in the playoffs with four goals in 19 games. Since Nick Leddy has now been traded to Detroit, Pulock should have less competition for the PP1 spot, unless Noah Dobson is able to emerge. Pulock likes to use his hard shot, consistently taking over two shots per game. Combine a low shooting percentage with a low secondary assist percentage, and he appears primed for a bounceback season.

Tyler Toffoli (Yahoo ADP: 159)

This is a case of me not being bullish on a player but at the same time noticing he's being drafted way too late. At times, it seemed like Toffoli scored at will last season (especially against his former Canucks teammates), finishing in the top 10 in goal scoring. A 17.7 SH% might indicate that his goal scoring falls, which it probably will. Yet there aren't really any other advanced stats that suggest a major regression. Can we also say that Toffoli is a great fit on the Canadiens, particularly with a playmaking center like Nick Suzuki?

Cal Petersen (Yahoo ADP: 175)

When I heard that Petersen was on average the 45th goalie being drafted in Yahoo leagues, I had to check it out for myself. Sure enough, there he is, being drafted behind backup-type options such as Casey DeSmith, Mikko Koskinen, Ville Husso, and even the unsigned Tuukka Rask. Petersen played more games (35 GP) than Jonathan Quick (22 GP) last season, so volume shouldn't be a problem here. If the Kings are better than expected, then Petersen could be an ideal target for those needing a second or third goalie.  

Who do you have as a player who is being drafted far too low in Yahoo leagues (or any other leagues, for that matter?) What about players you think are being drafted too high? Let me know below or on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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