Ramblings – Kicking Off Bubble Keeper Week – Taking Your Questions (Sep 06)
Dobber
2021-09-06
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The Fantasy Guide was updated twice yesterday. You'll see that a lot, especially as camps open and kick into high gear. Yesterday included the Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Christian Dvorak adjustments, as well as the Jake Gardiner news. For what it's worth, I think the Habs became a better team after the dust settled. At almost no cost to them.
Meanwhile, Arizona continues to make it abundantly clear that they're tanking. I've never seen the efforts so blatant before. Not in all my years of doing this. The rebuild for them begins next year. Not this year. This year is full-on tank.
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Anyway, we're a tad late with this because last postseason extended so deep into the summer, but this week is our annual Bubble Keeper Week. All the writers will be digging deep on those non-obvious players. The ones you'll be scratching your head about trying to decide which one to keep. So Connor McDavid and Andrei Vasilevskiy will be two names you will not be reading this week (starting now). Nope, this week is an ode to the likes of Kevin Labanc, Jason Zucker and Alex Killorn. Those guys you are humming and hawing about for that 12th slot. James van Riemsdyk or Chris Kreider? Ryan Pulock or Noah Dobson? Petr Mrazek or Jaroslav Halak? Be sure to check in all week for our take on some of these guys.
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I kick it off, as I do every year, by taking your 'this guy vs. that guy' decisions on Twitter:
I take Gurianov and Zacha here. I like where Zacha is trending and I think Gurianov is a safe bet. Kyrou is the best pick here for points, but he doesn't hit and I don't see him improving his production next season. Then again, what happens with Vladimir Tarasenko will dramatically influence that too. I have the comparison tool for those five players here.
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Barrie and Klingberg, each for three years. Lock in those top D. I flirted with the idea of Fiala instead of Klingberg, but that was my only decision-wrestling and in the end I think the defenseman is the better move. They are always the toughest to acquire.
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This one is tough – I love it! Each of those four offers some variation of health, reliability and upside. It's always tricky trying to get the right mix. For me it's Evgeni Malkin and Taylor Hall – obviously taking on heavy risk with Malkin. He's recovering from surgery that is serious enough that a return to full health – and stay healthy – is questionable. But I think it's worth the risk. Malkin's upside is still in the upper tier. He was still posting well over a point-per-game in 2019-20. And yes he's 35, but elite players are a different breed and continue to do well even as they approach 40. But for this, all I am worrying about is this season. When he plays, he'll be productive. And once he's productive I can flip him. The decision on Hall was tougher because I believe Vladimir Tarasenko will be at least close to normal by midseason. His doctor believes he will get back to 100% this time and I believe him. The doctor says they got the surgery right. He just needs to get his timing back. But why risk it when you have Hall? Although he's now a second liner with Boston, he produced well with them (17 points in 19 games before the team played the stifling Islanders in the playoffs). It's a safer play and you don't need to worry about the Tarasenko question mark.
I won't even consider Anthony Mantha. He was completely sterile after his first few games with the Caps. I don't trust him at all and can't be certain which Mantha shows up this year.
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Chychrun here. D are tough to acquire in the first place, let alone with the bonus points.
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In my order: David Pastrnak, Brayden Point, Alex DeBrincat, Kirill Kaprizov and Cale Makar. I'm assuming you have to have defensemen in your lineup and this is a points-only league. If you don't need defensemen then I'd keep Andrei Svechnikov over Makar.
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Christian Dvorak will get you the faceoff wins, he'll still be reasonably good for blocks, and I think he increases his production a little (to career highs). That should close the gap that Meier would have over him for points, and even cover off a Dubois bounce-back campaign.
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Keep Shea Theodore and don't look back. I have zero worry when it comes to Alex Pietrangelo threatening anything Theodore can do.
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I keep Kirill Kaprizov, Alex DeBrincat, Theodore and Kyle Connor. And if you don't want to be dead last again, draft a goalie first. If you head into the season pinning your hopes on Carter Hart, you could be in trouble. Cover yourself off there.
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The bottom really drops off after your obvious five. What you're left with are four players who are virtually equal and it comes down to the better goal scorers. Or at least – the ones with the higher projected goal rate. That means Tomas Hertl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, according to my own projections. Hischier tempts me in terms of upside and long-term value, but his injury history is troubling.
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If your league is deep and he's actually on your bubble, you can safely knock him off. Dropsy.
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Bo Horvat. Although Mike Hoffman may be close in points for this season, Horvat has a longer future for this kind of production. I still don't trust Duclair, and Chytil is unproven. And Stephenson relies on linemates.
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I like your second defenseman idea. As I keep stressing here, defensemen are harder to come by and Josi to me is a top-five scoring defenseman. I think he trumps a 70-point forward, or even 75.
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I would drop Kopitar, Wheeler, Bennett and Gaudreau. The toughest decision for me would be dropping Gaudreau instead of Chabot or Ekblad. But in the end I stick to my guns about defenseman (and goalies are even more important, if you have a good one – which you do).
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I don't think you have much choice here. Perron is a point-per-game player now and instead of slowing down he seems to be still getting better at the age of 33. Logically he should slow, but even so – he'll still outproduce those other guys. Even if Bennett has a breakout and Necas continues to make strides.
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If it's a full keeper, can't you keep all of them? What are the rules in terms of rostering goalies and defensemen? If I had to pick based on just those six words, I would pick the goalie.
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If you have to have X amount of defensemen on your team, then Ivan Provorov is my pick here. If not, and Provorov's points need to beat those of forwards in order to be useful, then I would go with Cam Atkinson.
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See you next Monday.
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