Ramblings: Parise Signing Official; Six Bubble Keeper Forwards I Needed to Decide On (Sept 11)

Ian Gooding

2021-09-11

Zach Parise has officially agreed to terms with the Islanders. This was one of the league's worst-kept secrets thanks to a GM who is normally unrivaled at keeping secrets. Parise, whose lucrative contract with the Wild was bought out this summer, finished last season with just 18 points (7G-11A) in 45 games. He was even healthy scratched late in the season.  

Parise's role with the Islanders will likely be as a secondary scorer who could slot in on the third line beside Jean-Gabriel Pageau. He also might receive second-unit power-play time. If you're looking for a projection on Parise, it's already in the Fantasy Guide (purchase here if you haven't already). He might still have some name value from back when he was a top scorer, but at this point I'm not overly interested in Parise for fantasy purposes.

The Flames signed a pair of defensemen, re-signing Michael Stone and signing free agent Erik Gudbranson. Stone averaged about 16 minutes per game last season with the Flames, while Gudbranson averaged just under 18 minutes per game with Ottawa and Nashville. There might be some worry that one of these d-men might steal minutes away from a younger d-man with more promise like Juuso Valimaki, but I just don't see it happening. Darryl Sutter probably had some say in the signings, particularly that of Gudbranson.

Hopefully you've found Bubble Keeper Week educational, informative, and even enjoyable. Today and tomorrow, I'm going to run through some bubble keepers from my team last season – players that could be on my team again this season. Today it's forwards, while tomorrow it's defensemen and goalies.

Jared McCann

With both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin possible to miss the start of the season, the Penguins sure could use McCann. Recall that when Malkin was sidelined last season, McCann managed to score eight goals and 18 points in just 22 games. He didn't have the benefit of Crosby either, often lining up with the red-hot Jeff Carter (an older bubble keeper you might want to give a look to, as Alex described here).

In real life, you could say that McCann was a bubble keeper who wasn't kept, first being traded to the Leafs, then being picked by Seattle in the expansion draft. With the Kraken, McCann could finally receive top-line minutes for the first time in his career. You could even make a strong case that he'll be the Kraken's top scorer, given the good-but-not-great forwards that Seattle picked up in the expansion draft.  

His advanced stats (15.1 SH%, 13.5 5-on-5 SH%, 3.2 PTS/60, 1065 PDO) seem a little high and suggest some goal-scoring regression. However, there's a good bet that he'll make up for that in terms of an icetime increase from the 14-15 minutes he received in Pittsburgh, plus possible first-unit power-play time. There's solid sleeper potential here at around pick 150, since he could be leaned on heavily by the first-year club.

I realize McCann has already been mentioned by others during Bubble Keeper Week. However, my opinion on McCann and how the Seattle lines shake out may be different from what theirs are. That's why whenever there isn't a clear outcome, I think it's beneficial to have multiple opinions on the same topic. Also, McCann is here because I decided to keep him.

Alexander Wennberg

A lot of Kraken players will be on bubble keeper lists, due to the uncertain nature of their roles and production. Wennberg is another one of those players, managing to push his way back into the fantasy picture last season in Florida after two dismal seasons in Columbus under John Tortorella.

Wennberg's most frequent line combination in Florida was with Jonathan Huberdeau and Patric Hornqvist. He won't get to center a player of Huberdeau's caliber in Seattle, but he should at least start in the top 6 with Yanni Gourde expected to miss the start of the season. Don't assume that Wennberg will be moved off a scoring line when Gourde returns, as Gourde is a better player defensively. Plus, Wennberg is probably a better player for most teams than he was during his last two seasons with Columbus (a combined seven goals and 47 points over two seasons).

Over a full season, Wennberg would have been on pace for 25 goals in 2020-21. That is a massive outlier when you consider that he had only reached single digits in goals over his previous four seasons. That goal totals is also from an abnormal 20.7 SH%, which sticks out when compared to a career average of just under 10 percent. His secondary assist percentage (41.7%) was a bit low, so perhaps a reduction in goals will be offset by a slight increase in assists. All in all, Wennberg projects to a modest 40 points over a full season, with likely 25-30 of those points in the form of assists.

Because I’m looking for a little more at the center position, I decided to let Wennberg go.

Chandler Stephenson

Stephenson was probably a player that you knew nothing about until he was acquired by the Golden Knights from the Capitals during the 2019-20 season, then placed on a line with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone shortly after. This wasn't just a short-term plan either, as Stephenson spent over half of his even-strength minutes with Vegas' top two scorers last season.

Most productive lines in terms of goals for (GF), 2020-21 season:

Line CombinationTeamPOSGF
SIDNEY CROSBY – BRYAN RUST – JAKE GUENTZELPITF42
GABRIEL LANDESKOG – NATHAN MACKINNON – MIKKO RANTANENCOLF39
MAX PACIORETTY – MARK STONE – CHANDLER STEPHENSONVGKF39
PATRICE BERGERON – BRAD MARCHAND – DAVID PASTRNAKBOSF35

Stephenson has benefitted from this line combination, having been a fantasy-worthy scorer. Over a full season, he would have been on pace for 56 points. That's not due to an abnormally high overall shooting percentage on his part, but some other advanced stats (12.9% 5-on-5 SH%, 2.3 PTS/60, 1043 PDO) suggest a major regression if he is moved off the Pacioretty/Stone line onto one with less skilled play drivers.

Vegas is well-stocked at many positions, but the one piece they are missing is a true top-line center. The acquisition of one could very well push Stephenson out of the top 6. The fact that they haven't acquired one yet might be a reason to add Stephenson on the cheap in your league. If he is moved off that line because of a trade or otherwise, don't hesitate to immediately drop him.

Stephenson was ineligible to be kept as per league rules, but I would have considered it if I were able to keep him.

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Tyler Bertuzzi

Bertuzzi might have been on the verge of a breakout last season with five goals and seven points in his first nine games. Yet we'll never know if that would have happened, as a back injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. His point production has gradually increased over the past three seasons, from 0.50 PTS/GP in 2017-18 to 0.64 PTS/GP to 0.68 PTS/GP to 0.78 PTS/GP in his injury-shortened 2020-21 season.

One reason that I like Bertuzzi is that he should remain a fixture on the top line with Dylan Larkin. Not just because Larkin helps him, but also the other way around. Larkin had seven points in the nine games that Bertuzzi was in the lineup, but he struggled to just 16 points in 35 games afterward. Bertuzzi has been a regular Larkin linemate for three seasons, so don't expect that to change.

On average, Bertuzzi has been drafted at around pick 150 in Yahoo leagues. However, I feel strongly that he should be drafted in more than 10 percent of leagues. Don't let the fact that he plays for Detroit deter you from drafting him. I realize he's also a player that has been covered by other writers, but I have him here because he's also a bubble keeper that I personally like to the point where I've kept him on my roster.

Nino Niederreiter

The Jesperi Kotkaniemi signing (assuming he is in Carolina beyond one season) could result in both Vincent Trocheck and Niederreiter heading to free agency. The Canes might make more of a concerted effort to sign Trocheck, but this offseason has proven that they'll make decisions that you wouldn't think they would.

Although Rod Brind'Amour sometimes juggles his lines, Niederreiter was generally used on the second line with Trocheck and Martin Necas last season. Coming off a mediocre 11 goals and 29 points in 67 games in 2019-20, Niederreiter bounced back with 20 goals and 34 points in 56 games. He benefitted from a strong 15.9 SH% and a 1023 PDO, but those numbers weren't absurdly higher than normal.

Even with Kotkaniemi in the fold, I don't expect the young Finn to be moved ahead of the more proven Niederreiter in the lineup. Yet maybe because of the investment, Kotkaniemi is given a look there at some point. Being drafted in just 10 percent of Yahoo leagues, Niederreiter might provide you with reliable top-6 scoring that won't cost you an arm and a leg to acquire. 

Niederreiter was also ineligible to be kept, but I may consider reacquiring him later.

Rickard Rakell

Rakell has tons of talent, which is apparent when you watch him. The trouble is that the Ducks hardly score. Their 2.21 GF/GP was the league's lowest total this past season, which is the sign of a rebuilding team whose young players are either still under development or haven't shown what we thought they might be.

Speaking of players who aren't what we thought they would be, Rakell has declined from a near-point-per-game scorer in 2017-18 to around 0.6-0.65 PTS/GP the two seasons after to just 0.54 PTS/GP in 2020-21. That's a 44-point pace, which would have included just 14 goals over a full season. All the while, his shot total hasn't dropped much over those past few seasons (from 3.0 to 2.8 SOG/GP), but his shooting percentage has gradually fallen from 18.6% in 2016-17 to 6.3% in 2020-21.

There's one player that might help Rakell, and that's Trevor Zegras. An early Calder Trophy favorite, Zegras hasn't spent considerable time lining up with Rakell. Dallas Eakins might decide to use Max Comtois instead on the left side, but Rakell is a right shot and could move over to that line. Troy Terry did show some chemistry with Zegras and Comtois late last season, but at least Rakell is versatile enough that he could play on either side. That positional flexibility is also a benefit to owning him in fantasy leagues, even if his overall fantasy stock is falling off the map (just 10 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues).

Ultimately, I decided not to keep Rakell. For now, it doesn’t seem likely that I’ll pursue him later either.

Finally, today is the 20-year anniversary of 9/11, a day that changed the world. It's hard to believe it's been that long, as many of us old enough will remember where we were when it happened. May we not forget the number of people whose lives were lost that day and those whose lives were forever altered.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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