The Fantasy Guide was updated Sunday (Ryan Donato – more on him below). Not a lot has been happening, but when things do then I make my tweaks. Training camps open around September 22 (depending on the team), with rookie camps opening about a week earlier. When the main camp is several days in, the updates will be fast and frequent – often to the tune of three times per day. So when your draft day arrives, be sure to re-download the Guide at that point. Updates are free, simply re-download the document when you want it.

For my francophone readers who prefer to read their gold in their native tongue, we have a translated version of the Guide and the updates are not even a day behind – often within a couple of hours. You can order your French version here (and please share with any of your francophone pals).

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One thing I find frustrating (it's silly, but bear with me) as a prognosticator is when an undrafted European never gets a chance, and it's for the stupidest reason. Same goes for a promising prospect who was drafted late but has earned his way up the depth chart and is finally ready to get his shot – only to have it taken away. You may have read my rants about Toronto's over-filled depth chart. Or Florida's forward depth chart. Too many players are signed and we'll never see what some of these guys can do. You already saw Denis Malgin stay put in Switzerland. I'm not saying Malgin would have been this breakout star or anything, but it would have been nice to see him in training camp, compete with one or two guys for a top nine spot, and get a chance to work his way up. Instead, he sees eight or nine guys he has to compete with. He sees that Nick Ritchie, Michael Bunting, Ilya Mikheyev and even Ondrej Kase will get longer looks and more opportunities than he would. So he's staying in the Swiss League.

This is a direct result of over-signing. I see the logic behind 'the more you sign, the more competition, the better the cream that rises to the top'. But there is a limit to that. What if Nicholas Robertson is ready? Well – doesn't matter. He's not on the team. No way. Because he is exempt from waivers. Even if he earns it, he’s not on the team. Can you blame Malgin?

Florida can say goodbye to Maxim Mamin. Not that he's a huge loss, but how do we know? Mamin has a snowball’s chance in hell of making this team because, like the Leafs, Florida signed a ton of forwards. Star prospects Grigori Denisenko and Anton Lundell are close to NHL-ready, but even if they're absolutely one-hundred percent ready – it won't matter. Best we can hope for is that the team makes room for them by Christmas, if they dominate the AHL and the few NHL shifts they get.

I bring this up because now Calgary has done it. They had five NHL defensemen, plus Connor Mackey, Oliver Kylington and Johannes Kinnvall doing battle for the six and seven slots. That's a good camp battle and the two best of the three starting the season at six or seven is pretty solid. Kinnvall is a 24-year-old, undrafted, right-shot defenseman who blossomed offensively in the SHL. It would have been nice to see him either work his way up to the second pairing… or flop and become just another Tim Heed. On the weekend, Calgary signed right-shooting defenseman Erik Gudbranson and right-shooting defenseman Michael Stone. The latter signing resulted in a collective groan from Flames' fans. But Stone and the organization are loyal to each other, and although Gudbranson is barely an NHL defenseman – he's quite suitable as a number six or seven. So now you almost certainly have your top seven. And Mackey, Kinnvall and Kylington battling it out for the press-box slot. Number eight.

This is the stuff that prognosticators have to work through. It's not just about determining the better player and the better fit. I feel I can do that easily (and very well). Nope, it's also about sifting through the hockey politics and figuring out who the organization will lean towards – and why. I think I do that part better than most, but I just hate to see good players with even minor fantasy potential get shafted this way.

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Still along the same lines – the Kraken have signed Ryan Donato to the league minimum. It's a low-risk deal…but why Seattle?

Top-nine locks: Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle, Calle Jarnkrok, Alex Wennberg, Joonas Donskoi, Jaden Schwartz, Yanni Gourde.

In the mix: Colin Blackwell, Mason Appleton, Brandon Tanev, Marcus Johansson, Morgan Geekie and now Donato. Six players going for two spots. Johansson, Geekie and Tanev could also play on the fourth line… but what about Riley Sheahan and Nathan Bastian? These are 15 legitimate NHLers. And I won't even get into Alexander True and Carsen Twarynski, because they're pretty much screwed.

So now, instead of Colin Blackwell fighting for respect as an NHLer and trying to show that he can be a regular in the top six… he may well be on the outside looking in. Or Donato will be. Instead of Blackwell having a promising year, I can now see this playing out as a Daniel Sprong/Conor Sheary scenario with Washington last year. Sprong and Sheary bounced in and out of the lineup in the first half last season before finding their place. But Sprong was never able to truly get a foothold. He might have, had they not signed Sheary. Blackwell is the Sprong in this story.

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We just finished our annual Bubble Keeper Week, I hope you got something out of it as each of our writers dug deep on those players in that 150^th to 400^th range in the rankings. Given the lack of content – the calm before the training camp storm – I figure I could take a few words to go over my own bubble keeper dilemmas.

Since two of my leagues are full dynasties (man, I love those), I can really only focus on my one keeper. It's a Keep 12, against many of the people involved in the Forecaster magazine. I used to write for them and for eight or nine years I contributed to this magazine. Anyway, there are 15 teams and the rosters are the same as NHL rosters, with an IR and a minor league system. Points-only league with small bonuses for SOG, PPPts, Hits and BLKS. My 'locks':

C – Nathan MacKinnon

W – Kevin Fiala

D – Tyson Barrie, John Carlson, Victor Hedman, Seth Jones

G – Connor Hellebuyck, Mackenzie Blackwood

After three-peating in this league a few years ago, I haven't won in about five. I've lingered around the top ever since, but haven't been able to push my team over the top. Last season I was taking a run but then my team just collapsed and I finished third.

Under consideration (final four spots): Nicklas Backstrom, Ryan Strome, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Matthew Boldy, Conor Garland, Jonathan Marchessault, Devon Toews, Marco Rossi

Recently cut: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Nikita Gusev, James van Riemsdyk, Alec Martinez, Mikko Koskinen, Jonatan Berggren, Jakob Pelletier.

Recently traded: Clayton Keller.

I have two weeks to finalize the roster, but I made the easier cuts already so that I could have more clarity on what was left. The strategy is to shop around players to see if I can get draft picks. I actually got two future draft picks for Keller. Pulling that trick again with any of the players under consideration would be ideal. I also have a trade offer on the table offering up Toews and Garland for Robin Lehner and Duncan Keith (who I would drop). The idea is to upgrade goaltending, and I think I would drop Blackwood if I could pull it off.

Leaning: I'm leaning towards dropping Backstrom, Boldy, Marchessault and Toews.

I like Strome in this league type with the Rangers, even over Backstrom who I rank slightly higher in the Keeper Rankings. Strome also probably has better trade value, given his age. With this in mind, I have Strome up for trade on the block. If I could turn him into a future draft pick, and keep the similar own (for this season only) in Backstrom then I come out ahead. Nobody, and I mean nobody, would give me anything for Backstrom right now in this format. He's too old for anyone to covet as one of their precious 12 keepers. But Strome certainly has appeal.

Toews is a drop in this case because, as you can see by my list of defensemen, I'm covered in that area. Had I just one star defenseman instead of four, then I would definitely keep Toews.

Boldy is a drop because it's difficult to keep prospects in this format. If I kept him it would be over Bjorkstrand – and Bjorkstrand could be 'this' year, where I 'hope' Boldy would be in five years. I like Bjorkstrand's upside a lot. Even on a weak Columbus team, I think he can be that guy. Or it would over Rossi, and Rossi is the same sort of keeper except with higher upside and to me a stronger likelihood of putting up bigger numbers sooner.

With Marchessault, it's just a numbers game. I see a good year from him this season, but I would rather own Bjorkstrand.

My unofficial early decision to keep Rossi is because he has a really good chance of becoming a Top 10 scorer in this league. As long as he can contribute something fantasy-worthy within two seasons, even a 55-point year, then I'm happy using up a spot on him this summer and next. Keeping him over Marchessault may come back to haunt me, so I'll be mulling this one over right up until the bell. I have Marchessault in the Guide for 61 points and Rossi for 52 – but Rossi is at 80% in terms of my confidence that he makes the team.

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See you next Monday.