Ramblings: Markström, Werenski, Forsling, Larkin, and More; Donato Signs – September 14

Michael Clifford

2021-09-14

We have been going team by team here at Dobber, rounding up the offseason changes from each team and what they mean. They are all available here and we're getting towards the end of the list. It did give me an idea for a Ramblings, though: one player from each team that I am targeting in drafts. So, that's what we're going to do across my next three Ramblings. We will pick one player from each roster that I am high on and a brief description into why. We'll do about a third of the league today and finish the rest across my next couple Ramblings. They could be guys picked at the top of a draft, or a deep sleeper. The descriptions will be brief, as I tend to, er, ramble. Let's get to it.

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Have you grabbed your copy of the 2021 Dobber Guide yet?

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Anaheim – Max Comtois: While the talent surrounding him remains a concern, he had over 180 shots+blocks in 55 games in what was effectively his rookie season. He should hover around 16-17 minutes a game this year, which'll help peripherals. The power play should improve as well, making him a real threat for 20+ goals. He'll have much more value in multi-cat leagues, but Comtois is entering his age-23 season and the team is turning a corner in a weak division. He should catch your attention.

Arizona – Dmitrij Jaskin: The problem with Jaskin in his first NHL stint was offence, not defence. Defensively, his impacts were among the best in the league. He just couldn't bring much offensively, either 5-on-5 or on the power play. Well, 69 goals in 117 KHL games later, and maybe he figured out that offensive dimension. He averaged 192 hits every 82 games from 2014-18 and now might be a legitimate goal scorer? Yeah, we'll be buying him at the draft table.

Boston – Linus Ullmark: Over the last three seasons, Ullmark's high-danger save percentage is middle-of-the-pack, ahead of names like Varlamov and Gibson. He also posted a positive wins above replacement – on Buffalo, mind you – than Carter Hart. He isn't an elite goalie, but he's going to a very good team, and he should have the starter's role for at least half the season. The concern about Jeremy Swayman is real, but until Rask returns, Ullmark is no worse than a 1B, and I think he can be very good away from the Sabres.

Buffalo – Jeff Skinner: I'm going to be honest and say I just don't have a lot of interest in the Sabres this year. The team has been gutted, Jack Eichel is hurt and will be traded, there aren't any major prospects coming (Quinn and Peterka are likely another year away), and this was a 29th-ranked offensive team last year as it was. Skinner had some decent seasons in Carolina when that team was really awful offensively 6-7 years ago, so maybe he can do it again. I do think he was genuinely unlucky last year and will be better, it's a question of how much. At least he'll be cheap.

Calgary – Jacob Markstrom: I talked about Markstrom's Yahoo! ADP and draft rate on Twitter recently. As it stands right now, I think Markstrom is not only one of the best values among goalies, but among all players at all. If the season breaks right, he has top-5 upside. I mean that – he's absolute lock starting goalie and one of the few who can realistically break 60 starts. The Flames, meanwhile, are in an awful division and played better under Sutter. He has 30 wins in his sights.

Carolina – Andrei Svechnikov: We love our fourth-year breakouts, don't we folks? Svech turned 21 in March and has over 200 regular season NHL games under his belt. Though he has been inconsistent scoring-wise, his hits have only increased and his shot rate is well over 2.5 per game (or over 200 shots a season). He is both a great playmaker and a great shooter, and it's just a matter of time before that all clicks as he skates with Sebastian Aho. To me, he's a second rounder going in the third round with first-round upside.

Chicago – Adam Gaudette: Now that Gaudette has gotten past the health issues that has kept him both from consistent, proper training and being able to put on weight, I think we see something from him this year. I wrote about him in May but to expand a bit: he had the second-highest shot rate on the Canucks and from HockeyViz, had no problem getting to the net:

If he was doing that nowhere near his peak health, what can he do now that he's healthy? He'll be on my draft list for deeper leagues. I want to find out myself.  

Colorado – Valeri Nichushkin: With Brandon Saad and Joonas Donskoi moving on, that should be more minutes for some Avs wingers, Nichushkin included. It should be noted he has 23 goals in his last 120 games, or 14 goals every 82 games, playing just 14 minutes a night. If he can get to 16 minutes a night, 20 goals are a real threat for him. He is also good for more than a hit per game, bringing that added value, especially in cap leagues where he's just $2.5M.

Columbus – Zach Werenski: The trade of Seth Jones should mean all kinds of minutes for Werenski, who managed a career-high 24:22 last season. He signed a new deal, that starts next year, and pays him nearly $9.6M a season. Jones's 25+ minutes a night are gone, so Werenski should get that, including all the top PP time. Though the team doesn't have a ton of high-end talent, it's not as if they're bereft. Laine could bounce back, Roslovic resurrected his career, Bjorkstrand is a 30-goal threat, and Voracek is still a good playmaker. He has 50 points well within reach, though with weak hits/blocks.

Dallas – Denis Gurianov: The concern here is he's the odd-man out and stuck more in a checking-line, third-line role, but it's one we live with. As I've long said, Gurianov is a guy that just loves the art of shooting the puck and that's helped him to a goal rate just outside the top-50 in the league over the last two seasons. If his ice time doesn't improve, he may not be good for more than 20 goals or so. But he's also a guy who can give us a hit per game, and if he can get some more TOI, he is a 30-goal, 100-hit threat. I'll take that gamble late in drafts.

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Detroit – Dylan Larkin

It seems every year I'm saying the same thing: Dylan Larkin is undervalued. We are saying the same thing again this year. He is going very late in drafts, after guys like Bo Horvat, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Claude Giroux. Now, whether he'll end up better than all three is unlikely, but this is a different Detroit team. Jakub Vrana is elite offensively, Tyler Bertuzzi is healthy, and there are some kids who are only getting better. It is a concern that he is hitting less, but it isn't as if that aspect has fallen off the map completely, and he still grabs PIMs at a good rate. If that shooting percentage rebounds in a big way, look out.

Florida – Gustav Forsling: While everyone is chasing Aaron Ekblad coming off a catastrophic injury, I'll look at the guy who was over 21 minutes a night down the stretch last year, averaging a point every other game. The peripherals might be tough to come by, but he'll be the go-to puck-mover for the Panthers outside of the top line, and if the team is as good offensively as we think they'll be, that puts 40 points within reach here. He is a deep target for me.

We'll do some more on Thursday. Any players you disagree with here? Feel free to leave some comments.

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The Kraken made the Donato signing official:

Dobber gave his take on it yesterday.

I was wondering when he'd get grabbed. I really don't get his career arc. His points/60 at 5-on-5 for his career is tied with Patric Hornqvist, Kevin Labanc, and Anthony Beauvillier. He isn't garbage defensively (though not good) and is great on the power play. He brought lots of peripherals in low ice time totals. At worst, he can bring good scoring depth with passable defence. That's not worth more than one year and $750K for a 25-year-old a month after free agency opened? Sometimes it just seems I'm higher on a player than every GM in the NHL and it makes me doubt my process once in a while.

Regardless, there are spots all over the roster outside the top line available for Donato. It seems like he'd be best used in a sheltered role with, say, Alex Wennberg and Jared McCann or something. Dobber raises a good point that there is a lot of competition, but I think he has more upside than most of the depth outside of Geekie. We'll see what happens, but I'm intrigued by any player who can put up two shots and one hit per game playing fourth-line minutes. What can he do with second-line or third-line minutes, if he gets them?

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