Welcome to a special edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. For just the second time ever, the column is shifting gears to cover goalies instead of skaters, giving you Goaliepucks and the Three Netminders.

The positional focus might be different this time, but the rest of the column is unchanged in that instead of there being three bowls of porridge, I cover three players – here goalies – and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

The three goalies covered are Tristan Jarry, Igor Shesterkin, and MacKenzie Blackwood. As per usual, readers should stop here to play prognosticator by trying to guess which of the three – for 2020-21 – were too hot and too cold, plus who was just right, before reading on to see if you scored a hat trick.

Tristan Jarry

After serving as back-up to Matt Murray, the Pens liked what they saw in Jarry enough to trade their 26-year-old two-time Cup winning netminder and hand the reins to Jarry for 2020-21. To say things didn't go well at the outset would be a vast understatement, with Jarry allowing 3+ goals in eight of his first nine starts. Although his stats didn't completely renormalize, he played well enough to prevail in 23 of his last 32 starts and finish fourth in goalie wins for the season. The question is, who's the real Jarry – the shaky version we saw on full display at the outset of the season, or the workhorse wins machine? The numbers suggest we should expect more of the overall same – that is, his season-long numbers for 2020-21 are likely comparable to what we should see from him in 2021-22.

Jarry's quality start percentage (QS%) has risen in each of his last two seasons from what it was as a rookie, landing at 59% for 2021-22. That was good enough for 12th best among goalies who played 20+ games. With his slow start dragging that down though, it's bound to go up, right? Actually, it's not clear whether he can surpass 60%, especially since even as Murray was starring for the Pens he never exceeded the 60.0% mark. Looking back further, we see Marc-Andre Fleury didn't surpass that threshold in all his years as the starter for the Pens. What does this mean? The Pens are a team that wins games due to offense, with a casualty of that being the peripheral stats of their netminders. For Jarry to have had a QS% as high as he did after his atrocious start is a testament to him being a talented goalie, but also makes it difficult to envision him improving in that area.

Looking at other stats, it shows the Pens as a team didn't do Jarry a lot of favors, as he faced the sixth most SOG last season, and none of those above him had more minutes played, plus he was fifth in high danger shots against. The second stat is key, since Jarry's SV% on high danger SOG (HDSV%) was 0.818, putting him 25th among goalies who played 20+ games. Jarry is in a tough situation where his team is leaving him out to dry quite a bit and he's seemingly not equipped to stand on his head and prevent collateral damage in the form of goals. That having been said, the silver lining is Jarry's HDSV% was higher this season than 2019-20, when it was higher than it was in his other main season of 2017-18, so probably he's stabilizing, or perhaps still has a bit more room to see that number improve.

Jarry finished right near that same spot – 23rd to be exact – in even strength SV% among goalies who played 20+ games. His SV% on the PK was worse though, placing him 37th. As for when his team was on the PP, he was 20th. Whether this is Jarry's "fault" or that of the team in front of him, either way it cuts against him improving in these areas.

Jarry's subpar numbers don't end there, as his Goals Saved Above Average, which is a measure of goals he prevented given his SV% and shots faced versus the league average SV% on the same number of SOG, was 1.3, with everyone else who finished in the top five in wins being in double digits and Jarry's number putting him 25th among goalies who appeared in 20+ games. On the plus side, his Goalie Point Shares was somewhat better, putting him 14th.

With Jarry now a true starter, he's getting fewer days rest between starts. Unfortunately for him, his worst save percentage in 2020-21 was when he had one day rest, at 0.907, with it rising to .925 on two days rest and .975 on three days rest. Although the NHL schedule for 2021-22 and future seasons will be less compact, it is most common for starters on a team to play every other day, which could make it difficult for Jarry's peripherals to get better.

At 26 and with only 101 career games played, it's possible Jarry could still improve in some areas, as he has in HDSV%. Yet many of Jarry's 2020-21 metrics put him 20th-25th among goalies, suggesting he's not a great goalie in his own right and serving to underscore the "good news, bad news" reality that is playing for the Pens, a team which scores a lot but also give up lots of shots, including high danger shots, and for whom no goalie has had a QS% above 60.0% since before the days of Marc-Andre Fleury. If Jarry was a few years younger or the Pens' blueprint stood to change then a different future might lie ahead; however, as it stands his 2020-21 was seemingly JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.0, suggesting he'll continue to pile on the wins but have not so great peripherals, although he could improve a bit, especially since last season's numbers were somewhat skewed by his poor start.

Igor Shesterkin

After an overseas early career that saw him post some of the best numbers seen in recent memory, expectations were sky high for Shesterkin upon his arrival in the US. He was part of a three-headed goalie monster in 2019-20, but tantalized with ten wins in 12 games and a .932 SV%. With Henrik Lundqvist out of the picture for 2020-21 and Shesterkin positioned as the 1A to Alexander Georgiev's 1B, Shesterkin played well, that is until the final chunk of the season, when he imploded to the tune of a 3.29 GAA in and .898 SV% in 11 games. Was that just a bump in the road, or instead a sign that Shesterkin might be one of a long line of goalies who amazed elsewhere but couldn't cut it once in the NHL? Based on the numbers, almost definitely the former, as Shesterkin seems on the cusp of being an elite netminder.

First off, we can deemphasize Shesterkin's poor play at the end of 2020-21. Why? For one, his three best previous seasons came when he played 25-28 total games in the KHL. Yes, he played 37 AHL/NHL games in 2019-20; but that was in a longer, less condensed campaign. Essentially, he was asked to play as many games as he's ever played, in a very tight schedule. More likely than not he became worn out, especially since, from March 25th through May 8th, or not even a month and a half, he played in 20 of a possible 25 games. Fatigue was bound to set in, but it should not be a factor in 2021-22, as not only does he have 2020-21 under his belt, but the season will be longer and more spread out.

Now that we can be more confident his poor end to 2020-21 was likely just a blip in the radar, what were the notable positives that can be drawn from the campaign? For one, he led the entire NHL among goalies who appeared in 20+ games in high danger SV%, with a mark of 0.876. If that seems high, it is, as we have to go back to 2017-18 to find an instance of a goalie who played more than half his team's games and had a higher HDSV%, and that was Ben Bishop, who just so happened to have tied with Tuukka Rask for the highest SV for the decade from 2010-11 to 2019-20 among goalies who played in 200+ games.

Despite his weak Q4, Shesterkin was eighth in the NHL among goalies who played 20+ games in even strength SV%, with everyone ahead of him having a higher overall SV% than him. So why, then, was his SV% not higher overall? His SV% on the PK, which was a very poor 0.845. But Juuse Saros, who had the highest even strength SV% in the NHL had an even worse SV% on the PK at 0.822, underscoring this is an area where goalies likely make gains as they get more games under their belt, whereas an already high even strength SV%, coupled with a league best HDSV%, are areas where a goalie shining early shows he has talent to succeed. Also on the plus side, Shesterkin didn't allow a single SHG, with no one who played in more games having not allowed at least one.

Shesterkin's lack of overall experience notwithstanding, he was remarkably consistent in terms of his save percentage regardless of days rest, as none were lower than 0.912. That's very impressive, as the goalies who played more games and also had a .912 SV% or higher no matter how many days rest each had an overall SV of 0.922, versus Shesterkin's 0.916 for the season as a whole. Again, this shows but for his fatigue-induced poor Q4 Shesterkin would've had a considerably better SV% overall.

Looking at other metrics, Shesterkin's Goalie Point Share (GPS) for 2020-21 put him 12th among goalies who played in 20+ games, with no one younger finishing ahead of him and seven of those above him having played in no more than one or two more games than Shesterkin. And despite his Q4 implosion, Shesterkin still was 9th overall in Quality Start Percentage (QS%) among goalies who appeared in 20+ games, yet again with no one who was younger having a higher percentage and the three who appeared in more games than him finishing first, second, and fourth in the metric.

Shesterkin's Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) put him in a similar range, namely 11th, with no one younger having a better rating and none of the ten above him having started 39+ games. And if we look at those goalies who played in as many games as Shesterkin but who had GPS, QS% and GSAA numbers which were all better than his, it's solely Marc-Andre Fleury and Semyon Varlamov, who happen to be the 2020-21 Vezina Trophy winner and a netminder who plays in the goalie-friendly system of Barry Trotz.

Although Shesterkin ended 2020-21 on a sour note, it's a testament to how excellent of a goalie he is that he still finished first overall in HDSV%, plus had across the board strong numbers in terms of SV% given days of rest as well as other metrics, where only two of the best goalies in the NHL in 2020-21 ranked ahead of him in all areas. Given this, Shesterkin's 2020-21 was TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 2.25. He's as good as advertised, and if somehow you can seize upon his poor end to 2020-21 to get a nervous or suddenly more skeptical owner to trade him to you, run don't walk to do so. For those who are in one year leagues, Shesterkin likely should be among the short list of netminders who should be grabbed after the likes of Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck.

MacKenzie Blackwood

Unlike Jarry, Blackwood started 2020-21 superbly, only to see his numbers get worse as the season played out, finishing with a GAA of 3.07 and a SV% barely above 0.900 (0.902 to be exact). Still only 24 years old, but with over 100 career games already under his belt and that strong stretch which we witnessed, is Blackwood a safe bet to improve if not during 2021-22 then down the road? There are few if any sure things in fantasy hockey; however, Blackwood not panning out seems like the closest to a definite I've seen in a while.

Although it is true Blackwood is still young enough at 24 to round into form, things are not trending in the right direction. Looking at his GAA, SV% and number of Really Bad Starts, all were worse in 2019-20 than 2018-19, and worse again in 2020-21 than 2019-20, and that's despite a start in 2020-21 that saw him allow a mere ten goals in five games despite facing 173 total SOG in those five contests. If we subtract the numbers in those five games from his totals, his GAA would have been 3.20 and his SV% would have been 0.893 in his other 30 games. To put those numbers into perspective, since 2010-11 only 11 other goalies played in 30+ games with both a GAA of 3.20+ and a SV% of .893 or lower. The only one who, like Blackwood, was younger than 27 to do so was Brian Elliott, who never did amount to a true NHL starter.

Staying on comparables, if we look at goalies who had a season in which they played 35+ games plus had a GAA at least as high and SV% at least as low as Blackwood's in 2020-21, plus, likewise, were age 24 or younger yet in their third or later season, only seven meet the criteria from the last 25 campaigns. Of them, none won more career games than lost, and the best of the bunch was Steve Mason, who was a disappointment overall after a strong early start. Who were the other six? Try Marc Denis, Jean-Sebastian Aubin, Kevin Weekes, Dan Cloutier, Corey Hirsch, and Jim Carey. Not a successful fantasy netminder among them.

Back to Really Bad Starts, in 2020-21 Blackwood had a total of ten, or one per every 3.5 games in which he appeared. That put him second only to Martin Jones in total number and ratio. And if we look at the last five years, there were 20 instances of goalies who had more really bad starts, ranging between 11 and 14. Yet all of them – other than Jones – had a better ratio of really bad starts to actual games, making Blackwood's ten in 35 contests more worrisome. It's even less pretty if we look at Goals Saved Above Average, where Blackwood sat 37th out of 51 goalies. He was only a tad better in quality start percentage, as his 51.4% put him 29th; however, if we take out those five starts at the beginning of the season, he'd have been at 43.3% and ranked 42nd. The one small positive is his Goalie Point Share put him 17th for 2020-21, with all those above him having a higher save percentage; but that's small consolation given all his other poor metrics.

Blackwood also was lousy almost regardless of how many days rest he had, as his SV% for zero days rest was 0.898, for one day rest was 0.887, and for three was 0.733. Somehow, however, it was 0.935 on two days rest and 0.913 for four or more days rest. The higher percentage with ample rest might prompt the Devils to shift him to back-up sooner rather than later, as opposed to remaining the starter or even a 1A. Looking at his high danger SV%, it was a dismal 0.791, meaning he saved fewer than four of five high danger shots, which is problematic since he faced six high danger SOG per game, for a total of 211, placing him 11th in the NHL with no one above him having appeared in fewer games.

Blackwood's even strength save percentage was .914, which, although not terrible, put him 32nd among goalies who played 20+ games. Where concern arises is he didn't even have a SV% of .900 while his team was on the man advantage. He also had a SV% of .825 when his team was shorthanded, which was fourth worst in the NHL among goalies who saw action in 20+ games. Not a pretty picture here either.

There's a line in The Social Network that says "if you were the inventors of Facebook, you'd have invented Facebook." Well, if Blackwood was a good goalie, he'd be a good goalie; and simply put, he's not. In fact, signs point to him actually having done better in 2020-21 than he should have, thanks to a torrid five game stretch at the beginning of the season. Yes, he's still just 24 years old; however, this was his third NHL season and he's already played over 100 career games. If he was younger or had played less thus far, perhaps the outlook would be better or at least more uncertain; but his numbers put him in the company of netminders who essentially never amounted to anything more than journeymen. In view of the 2020-21 data, Blackwood, despite his lousy numbers, actually was TOO HOT, and gets a rating of 7.5, suggesting to the extent he plays in 2021-22 he'll likely see his already poor numbers get even worse. If you can trade Blackwood for almost anything, whether seizing upon his age, his hot start to 2020-21, or future hopes for New Jersey as a team, then try your best to do so before he becomes unmovable. On the flip side, Jonathan Bernier might be a good goalie to grab, as by end of the first quarter of 2021-22 he should either be the outright starter or strong 1A.

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Questions for Mailbag

My monthly mailbag is two weeks away and has room for a few more questions. To send your question(s) to me, either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line. Be sure not to send me any keeper questions though if you can't wait until the column goes live on September 29th to receive your answer(s).