As we get closer to the start of hockey, managers everywhere are beginning to prep their draft strategies. A big part of that for many is to take a look at projections for the upcoming players to try and make some judgements about their value (pro tip: go grab Dobber's). If we are looking at point projections, performance on the power play can have huge implications. A top power-play role can essentially make or break a player's fantasy relevance. With that in mind we are going to take a moment and look at some power-play data from the 2020-21 season.

Since this is a Frozen Tools article, you can expect that there is something helpful over on Frozen Tools that will allow us to do this. It is of course the PP Data report (the naming conventions over there at Frozen Tools are again spot on). The report breaks down player's performance into a number of useful categories: counting stats like goals, assists, points, shots, and time on ice, as well as power-play percentage, points-per-60, and IPP. We could use any number of them for this analysis, but we are going to focus on points, points-per-60, and power-play percentage.

In order to get the data, we will to run the report, export it, and then do a little rearranging of the columns. Just for fun, let's start with our big power-play producers.

These players all have a few things in common. They are elite players in and of themselves, so produce at a very high rate per 60, and they see the vast majority of their team's power-play time (amounting to four plus minutes a night on average).

While it is enjoyable to see just how incredible Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are on the power-play that isn't really news to anyone. What is most helpful when planning for the future is to look at what has changed for players over time. In this case we want to know which players are doing better/worse than usual and are there reasons for that to continue?

In order to examine this, we need to run another report. Or more specifically, the same report, but for a different time frame. We are going to take a look at player's performance in 2021 as it compares to their performance over the last three seasons. In order to do this, we run the same report, but change the time frame and then merge our data so we can view it side by side.

The below table follows those directions, and is specifically looking at two data points: power-play points per 60 power-play minutes, and a player's percent of their team's power play (how many Ps can I get into one sentence? Turns out a lot).

Let's take a moment to break down this behemoth. The left columns are your typical fare: name, position, games player, and total power-play points. The second section (the grey columns) represent a player's share of the total power-play time for the team. It is separated into data from the 2020-21 season, the data from their last three seasons averaged, and the difference between the two. Roope Hintz for example has been on the ice for 45.9 percent of his team's power-play time on average over the past three seasons, but in 2020-21 he was up to 56.2 percent or a gain of 10.3 percent (we like this – this is good). Nicklas Backstrom on the other hand saw his share of time drop from 71.2 percent to 68.6 percent (this is not as good).

The third section (the white columns all the way to the right) are a player's points scored per 60 minutes of power-play time, and again broken down into the 2020-21 season, their three-year average and the change.

Another couple of things to know about this table. It is sorted by players who gained the most per 60 in 2020-21. Roope Hintz leads the way having increased his points per 60 on the power play by 2.5. Jordan Staal is in second with 2.3. There are also two filters on the data. We are only looking at players who played more than 20 games in 2020-21 and averaged more than 2:30 of power-play time. These cutoffs help eliminate the wild fluctuations of small sample sizes and focus on impactful power-play producers.

So what does it all mean? Well, we want to see players that have increased their points per 60 number. It means they are being more productive in the time that they are getting, and all of the players on this list are doing that. But we also want to see players who are increasing their share of their team's power play. A player that is both getting more time and producing more effectively per minute with that time is *chef's kiss*.

The big winners on this list? The Carolina top power-play. And Roope Hintz.

Carolina clearly leaned more heavily on one unit this season than they had in prior years. Luckily for Jordan Staal and for Vincent Trocheck, they got to spend a chunk of time on that unit. This is exactly what we want to see. An increased role leading to increased output. It puts any preseason power-play point projection that is closely aligned to last season on pretty good footing. Dougie Hamilton is a bit of a wild card, as he is completely changing his situation. He still should be the power-play one quarterback in New Jersey, but it remains to be seen if that unit gets the same time as he got in Carolina or if the personnel will provide the support he needs to keep up his point pace.

Roope Hintz increased almost a full minute of average power-play time per night in 2020-21. It puts him right around the three-minute mark. He put up a career high of 18 power-play points, but did it in fewest games he has ever played in a season (41). That represents an increase from .233 power-play points per game to .44 and would have put him at 36 power-play points over a full 82-game season. That really isn't the best metric for measuring power-play success, but suffice it to say it is a massive increase.

Almost all signs are really positive here, with the one caveat that while all signs point to an increase from his previous career levels, it is unlikely he sustains a 36 power-play point pace into 2021-22. Only six other players (and yes, it is exactly who you think it is – the above list) had that pace in 2020-21 and Victor Hedman is the only player who averaged less than four minutes of power-play time per night. Hintz would need to keep a similar rate of production and then add at least another 30 seconds and likely a full minute of total time to reach that level. So if your projections include 30+ power-play points for Hintz, maybe don't believe it.

On the flip side I do have a little concern about the sustainability of Backstrom's and TJ Oshie's performance. They increased their rate of power-play points, but have lost time on the power-play. For 2020-21 that meant their power-play point total was still good, but they essentially had to up their rate to keep up with the lost time. An optimistic take might be, "well these are better with a little less power-play time," but rarely has that ever translated into an increase in total power-play points over the course of a season. Backstrom's bread and butter 75-80-point seasons are built on 25-30 power-play points. If his time keeps dropping, he likely won't be able to maintain that pace and at 33 (and 34 for Oshie) they are going to rely more and more on those opportune minutes to keep up their point totals.

That's all for now. Stay safe out there.

Help make hockey accessible for everyone. Start by supporting:

Black Girl Hockey Club

Hockey is For Everyone

Athletes for Hope

NWHL