Ramblings: PTOs for Gusev, Neal, Frolik; Ranking Goalies Markstrom, Knight, Smith (Sept 18)
Ian Gooding
2021-09-18
With training camps set to open soon, it's officially professional tryout season. Hey, we have to get excited about something hockey-related.
The Blues announced on Friday that they have signed wingers James Neal and Michael Frolik to PTOs. To no one's surprise, Neal had his contract bought out by the Oilers earlier this offseason. It's possible that one or even both of these players could stick if the Blues finally manage to trade Vladimir Tarasenko soon. Otherwise, their odds of signing a season-long contract in St. Louis appear slim, as the Blues have a fairly deep roster of forwards.
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A timeline of Dobber tweets:
Before I saw these tweets, I was going to say something to the effect of "The Toronto Maple Leafs have hired Darryl Dobbs as their new general manager. His first move was to bring in Nikita Gusev on a professional tryout." All kidding aside, maybe Arizona or Buffalo would have been a better option for Gusev to get his career back on track with that much-needed icetime?
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Our latest Offseason Fantasy Grades features the Vancouver Canucks. Or you can check out the full list here. Since these are being posted in alphabetical order, we have only a few left to go.
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DobberHockey's 16th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is out now, fully updated and ready for download. Pick it up here!
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The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for September. Feel free to use them if you have a single-season draft coming up. I like to get input from those who use the rankings, so by all means leave feedback.
Today I'll discuss three more goalies who fall just outside of the top 100 and why, as well as some benefits that they can provide to your team if you pick them after pick 100.
Another observation of mock drafts that others have also noted to me is how criminally low Markstrom is being drafted. Currently, his Yahoo ADP is 139. In my most recent mock draft, Markstrom was picked at 174! I noticed this because I was going to select Markstrom as my next pick, but I was still able to select Anton Khudobin instead (at pick 194, also incredibly low!)
The Flames didn't invest a 6 x 6 contract on Markstrom to have him sit on the bench. With that, only Connor Hellebuyck played in more games last season than Markstrom (42). With inexperienced options Dan Vladar and Adam Werner competing for the backup job, Markstrom figures to take on one of the league's heaviest workloads this season.
You can hold your opinion on how quality a goalie Markstrom is. His .904 SV% and -4.19 GSAA from last season doesn't help his cause. However, his first season in Calgary was a strange one with the COVID restrictions, so this year could be better for him now that he's familiar with the new system. If Calgary can rebound with a playoff appearance, Markstrom could have a high win total from the volume he expects to take on.
Given his ultra-low draft value and results from last season, I don't see Markstrom as a top 100 option at the moment. But that can change if he displays the type of goaltending he showed in 2019-20, where he was the backbone of a Canucks team that won two postseason rounds.
Perhaps a little earlier than expected, the Panthers gave first-round pick Knight some late-season starts, and he didn't disappoint (4-0-0, 2.32 GAA, .919 SV%). The fact that the Panthers also turned to Knight in the playoffs while allowing Chris Driedger to escape to Seattle also helps his stock considerably heading into this season.
Even with the promise and upside, Knight's ADP of 85 seems a little high. It is no doubt influenced by the Yahoo rankings themselves, which have Knight ranked at 76. There is even one well-known site that has Knight ranked just outside its top 50. Knight may well justify that value based on his play when he is called upon, but there's still that mountain of a contract that the Panthers have with Sergei Bobrovsky for five more seasons. As I had said on the Fantasy Hockey Hacks podcast, Knight will have to outplay Bobrovsky by a wide margin to be able to receive the majority of starts in Florida.
I had already planned to move Knight out of the top 100, but feedback from a Twitter follower helps me affirm my choice here. For the record, I don't have Bobrovsky as a top 100 option either.
Smith is not in the top 100, but I will give the drafters credit for this one. Smith's ADP of 126 seems fair, and it's even ahead of the likes of Carter Hart and Jacob Markstrom. This ADP is despite the fact that Yahoo has Smith ranked at 370, behind the likes of Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne, who can't help your team if they're retired. Okay, but maybe no goalie is better than a bad goalie in some cases. But is Smith a bad goalie?
I'll come clean. I've dogged Smith in the past. I've chuckled along with everyone else when the Oilers have brought Smith back not once, but twice when there are clearly younger options out there. Needless to say, I wasn't someone who took a flier on Smith when he grabbed the Oilers' starting job in January and ran with it. In fact, the 39-year-old Smith had probably the best season of his career (21-6-2, 2.31 GAA, .923 SV%) since his outstanding 2011-12 season with the then-Phoenix Coyotes. Only four of the 24 goalies who played as many games as Smith (32) posted a better save percentage.
The more important question might be what Smith will be this coming season. You'd be hard-pressed to think that he'll repeat those numbers. However, management believes in him enough to give him a two-year contract. By the time it expires, his age will match his jersey number (41). Coaching believes in him enough to make him the starter, and we all know how far back Smith and Dave Tippett go.
It is worth mentioning that Smith had two subpar seasons with a -8.17 GSAA and a -11.72 GSAA prior to last season, so there's no guarantee that Smith will provide what the Oilers need in net. However, the Oilers are considered to be a playoff team in a weaker Pacific Division, and they can outscore many of their goaltending problems. That should give Smith the opportunity to earn plenty of wins, regardless of his performance.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding