Forum Buzz: Draft Strategies; Cap Keepers; Goalies Galore; Hronek vs. Sergachev; Retooling vs. Rebuilding & More

Rick Roos

2021-09-22

Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1For someone who's been out of fantasy hockey for a while, what is a good strategy to employ at a draft? This is a brand new league which will be a 14 team H2H keeper, and the team picks tenth. Starting lineups are 9F, 5D, 2G, plus 5 bench spots. Skater categories are G (3, or 4 if by a defensemen), A (2), SHG (2), PPPt (1), HIT (0.2), BLK (0.1, or 0.2 if by a defenseman), PIM (0.2), SOG (0.1). Goalie categories are W (5), SO (3), OTL (2), SV (0.1), GA (-1), Goal scored (10), Assist (3).

The thing I focus on initially is positions. Forward position does not matter here, meaning unlike some leagues extra value is not bestowed upon wingers due to comparative scarcity of those positions versus pure centers. Instead, the best forwards can be drafted regardless of position. Beyond that, I look at starting line-ups. Here, seven of 16 are non-forwards. That is a pretty high percentage, plus, with respect to both goalies and defensemen, the very best represent a smaller percentage of the players available. As such, I'd look to grab elite players at those positions early, before the huge drop off occurs, as there will be forwards nearly as good as the top forwards as late as round five in the draft; however, the goalies and defensemen left after the first five rounds will be considerably worse than the ones already picked. This is especially the case given the defensemen premiums.

Next you want to understand the scoring categories and how they impact player values. In this case, goalies who play a lot are at a premium. As such, getting guys who are all but assured to start 50+ games is key, even if their peripherals might not be as good as goalies who will be in bona fide time shares. As for skaters, scorers are everything, as it takes 15 Hits or PIM and 30 Blocks or SOG to equal the impact of just one forward goal. Although some will see all these categories and obsess over stat stuffers, the key is to obtain proven scorers. If they also provide value in other categories all the better; but don't fall into the trap of assigning higher value to certain players just because they're strong in multi-cat.

Lastly there's the issue of age ranges. If one's team is too old, one might compete for a couple of seasons but then have to blow things up and start a rebuild, while if one goes too young one will be out of the running for a while and then have to hope the guys that were grabbed will pan out well enough to provide an edge once they're older. For a league with this many keepers versus starters, the rule I'd use is 40%/45%/15%, which means 40% guys yet to peak, 45% in peak years, and 15% guys who are still strong but, age-wise, are past peak. What are peak ages? A couple years back I did a three column series looking at defensemen, forwards, and goalies, finding peak ages for each were, respectively, and 28.2, 27.7, and 29.1; in other words, quite similar. If anything, the numbers might be in favour of younger skaters now. This means that current peak ages for skaters likely represent 24-30, while for goalies it's 27-31. Accordingly, a team would want 45% of its roster to fall in those age ranges, with 40% below and 15% above. If one's team is comprised of players as such, it should be well set for the here and now and the future.

Topic #2 – In a league where 4C, 4LW, and 4RW start and categories that count for skaters are G, A, PPPts, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, which six of the following forwards (position eligibility noted) should be kept: Brock Nelson C, Josh Norris C, Sam Reinhart C/RW, Nick Schmaltz C/RW, Jamie Benn C/LW, Adrian Kempe C/LW/RW, Mike Hoffman LW/RW, Milan Lucic LW, J.T. Miller C/LW/RW, Travis Konecny RW, Oliver Wahlstrom RW, Jake Guentzel RW, Sean Monahan C, Boone Jenner C/LW, Anders Lee LW?

First off, there are three "pure centers" as keeper options, namely Nelson, Monahan, and Norris. Nelson has become a fine player for the Isles in recent seasons; but he tends to be at his very best during the playoffs, and, due to the presence of Mathew Barzal, will never be a top line guy, hurting his OZ%, and, therefore, his point total. Monahan had a very poor 2020-21 but was revealed to have been playing hurt. Still though, this was the second season in a row he underperformed, so it appears his fate is tied to that of Johnny Gaudreau, and it's not clear whether Gaudreau can/will snap out of his funk, making Monahan a risk. Norris had his 35 points in only 30 games, with the average point total for others who had points in 30 different games being 43, meaning Norris is already consistent but likely will become a better scorer in the normal course as he gets more multipoint games. He also had 14 PPPts for a team which scored only 27 PPGs, showing he is very adept on the PP. Lastly, he ended with 16 points in his final 18 games, so he already was hitting his stride. If – and it is indeed an if – a pure center is to be kept, it should be Norris.

Miller and Reinhart I see as definite keeps, what with Reinhart likely to give a team FOW from the wing, that is unless he's used as a winger alongside Aleksander Barkov, in which case he'll rack up points. He's a win-win waiting to happen. Miller gives you positional versatility as well as FOW from the wing, and he's a lock for the top line at ES and on the PP. Guentzel also is a must keep, as in a somewhat down year he still surpassed the point per game mark and he has superb chemistry with Sidney Crosby, plus, like Miller, a guaranteed spot on the top lines at ES and on the PP. Lastly, Hoffman had what appeared to be a down 2020-21; however, he had 15 points in his last 16 games and 11 alone in his last seven. All this despite low ice times during the entire season. Moreover, even with all the issues last season Hoffman was still as strong as ever on the PP. He'll rebound and is deserving of a spot as a keeper, bringing the must keep total to four.

Jenner is someone who might be disregarded because he doesn't have point per every other game upside. However, he's a monster in terms of FOW and HIT, and, until last season, he also shot the puck a good amount. Plus, with John Tortorella gone, Jenner could see a larger role than he has over the past few seasons. Like Norris, he's up for consideration. Benn hits just about as much as Jenner, and gives FOW too, plus more points. After bottoming out in 2019-20 he looks to have re-stabilized as a 55- to 60-point player, which, when combined with his peripherals, might be enough to keep him. Lee is what he is, which also is a 55- to 60-point player who hits and who shoots more than either Jenner or Benn. Though he is at an age where players of his type can slow, much like Benn did. Konecny had a stellar 2019-20, but took a step back last season due in part to the stronger than expected play of James van Riemsdyk and Joel Farabee. Konecny's long term potential remains very high; but even with the departure of Jakub Voracek it's not clear where Konecny fits at the present time. The rest (Schmaltz, Wahlstrom, Kempe, Lucic) are not worth consideration given the other options.

It boils down to Norris, Jenner, Benn, Konecny, and Lee for the last two spots. I think that Konecny can be omitted since he's just a RW and, according to the post, so too is Guentzel, which would handcuff the team a bit positionally. I like Norris' upside enough to say he should be one of the six, such that the last spot goes to one of the "bangers." With the return of Tyler Seguin, I see Benn being put back into the top six and, as such, representing the best all around option, especially since both Jenner and Lee are easier redrafts. Thus the six would be Miller, Reinhart, Guentzel, Hoffman, Norris and Benn.

Topic #3 – In a league that's points only for skaters and, for goalies, two points for a win and an extra point for a shutout, and that starts 12F, 6D, 2G, a team is in "win now" mode and can keep eight players. So far the thinking is to keep these seven: Leon Draisaitl ($8.5M), Mika Zibanejad ($5.35M), Alexis Lafreniere ($0.925M), Andrei Svechnikov ($7.75M), Cale Makar ($9.0M), Shea Theodore ($5.2M), and Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5M). Who should be the last keeper out of this list of players, assuming one or more of them shouldn't replace one or more of the projected seven: Kyle Connor ($7.143M), Mathew Barzal ($7.0M), Roope Hintz ($3.15M), Elias Lindholm ($4.85), Dougie Hamilton ($9.0M), John Klingberg ($4.25M), Juuse Saros ($5M), Philipp Grubauer ($5.9M)? Offseason trading is allowed.

This was posted before Svech signed his deal, which is a bit more expensive than envisioned, especially for point-only leagues where he's not most valuable. Given this, we'll need to see if he still makes sense as a keeper. Other than Svechnikov, the only one of the seven I'd question is Lafreniere. Yes, he's a bargain not just this season but next; however, for a team that's in win now mode, he might not blossom enough to justify being kept. He too is a maybe.

Among the others, to me the ones who seem like contenders are Hintz, Lindholm, Connor, Klingberg and Saros. Barzal would be great if only on another team without an offense-stifling system, while Hamilton is superb, but not better – at that price – than Makar or Theodore. Grubauer is not keepable given that Seattle, on paper, does not look like it has the pieces to put together a strong first season like Vegas did a few years ago. Of them, Hamilton seems like the one who can most easily be traded. One option would be to package him and Lafreniere to a team which is perhaps building more for the future, getting a very low priced defenseman but still impactful defenseman in return, namely someone like Rasmus Dahlin and Quinn Hughes who are best in points only, or, looking at guys who are priced a bit more but still not too expensive plus can help a win now team, like Morgan Rielly, Tyson Barrie, Jakub Chychrun, or Samuel Girard.

Although there do appear to be some better rates versus Svechnikov; the salary he's being paid shows he'll be a focal point and as such is worth keeping. If Lafreniere and/or Hamilton are not traded for a keeper, that would mean keeping two from the list. If most teams keep two goalies, then I think Saros is a great buy at his salary, as he started an amazing 26 of his team's final 28 games and is set to be a workhorse in net this season. If not, however, then I like two of Hintz, Lindholm and Klingberg. Hintz played well enough in 2020-21 that even with the looming return of Tyler Seguin Hintz should have top tier linemates and a spot on PP1. Lindholm has 70-point downside, which, at his price, is superb. Klingberg is a UFA to be, meaning he'll be looking to boost his value. Even still, I think Hintz and Lindholm are less risky, as the Stars could "lame duck" Klingberg into a subpar role, whereas the other two are locked into great deployment. Of the two, give me Lindholm for the last spot, as he's the surer thing. The final keep is either Lindholm (over Lafreniere), or the player for whom Lafreniere and/or Hamilton is traded.

Topic #4 – In a ten team, keep six league with 18 player rosters (starting 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UTIL, 2G, plus 5 Bench spots) and with categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by defensemen), W, GAA, SA%, and SV, daily moves but 99 game limit for per skater spot and 82 games per goalie spot, a team is planning to keep Nikita Kucherov (RW), Andrei Vasilevskiy (G), Jake Guentzel (LW), and Andrei Svechnikov (LW), and is debating between these players for the final two spots: Alex Ovechkin (LW), Darnell Nurse (D), Carter Hart (G), Darcy Kuemper (G), John Tavares (C), Erik Karlsson (D), Sam Reinhart (RW), Pavel Buchnevich (RW), Vladimir Tarasenko (RW), and Tyler Seguin (C). Who should be the six keeps, noting that between all the various teams roughly 15 goalies are kept each season?

Those four locks do appear to be the best of the bunch, so no changes there. For the second spot, it's difficult in this format to not go with Ovechkin. Yes, his 2020-21 HIT, SOG, ice time and scoring were all lows for the last four seasons and he's not getting any younger. Still though, he has to be one of the top options for skaters in this league, especially since his PPPts have remained strong and given his role and contract he's going to get top deployment. Plus, think of it this way – if he's not kept, wouldn't he be drafted as a first rounder? Can that be said about any of the other ten being considered for the final two spots? Definitely not. Given that, and with 60 total players being kept, you keep Ovi and don't give it a second thought.

That leaves one more slot, and I think it comes down to Nurse, Kuemper, Hart, or Tavares, with the others being at least one-step down. The issue with Kuemper is if – and with him it's a very real if – he doesn't get hurt, his ceiling for total starts is likely 50. Yes, a few seasons ago he had 55 appearances; however, Antti Raanta was only able to play 12 games, so the number of starts for Kuemper was due to necessity versus being the set plan. Moreover, Pavel Francouz showed in 2019-20 that he can be a very capable back-up netminder, such that Colorado likely envisions limiting Kuemper to more like 50 starts in a perfect world. Hart, on the other hand, could be a workhorse if capable, as Martin Jones is not a very good goalie at this stage of his career. Had 2020-21 not happened I'd say Hart would be the choice; however, his terrible season likely puts him in the redraft pile.

As for the skaters, Nurse is strong in all categories other than PPPts, as he didn't even take the ice for 30% of his team's man advantage minutes. He's very, very good, but I think the mistake people are making is equating his new contract with fantasy value in all leagues. He's being paid due to what he brings to the table in real life. Yes, his fantasy value is solid in some areas; but with so little PP time he's probably not a keep. For that matter, I don't think Tavares is either. I covered Tavares in a Goldipucks column, where the data showed he's still talented, yet he's slowed to enough of an extent, and is being deployed less favorably, such that he's no longer a point per game threat, with 70-75 points being his likely output. Tavares also doesn't hit, and his SOG rate is on the decline, so I think he doesn't make the cut in a league where 60 players are kept.

Not loving any of the keepers, I'd shop them all. Tell the other GMs that Kuemper, Nurse, Hart, and Tavares are available for trade. I believe the hype around Kuemper given him landing in Colorado and for Nurse due to his big extension and high production last season should allow for a nicer return than keeping either of them, Hart or Tavares. If somehow offseason trading is not allowed or the offers are not upgrades, I think the keep is Kuemper given that a quarter of the 60 retentions are likely goalies, and hoping he both plays well and avoids the injury bug.

Topic #5 – in a 12 team, H2H keep 15 (no more than two goalies), with rosters of 23 Players (no more than two goalies), starting line-ups of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 3F, 4D, 2G, plus 8 Bench, 2 IR+ and categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, HIT, BLK, W, SV, SV%, SHO, how would the following seven forwards be ranked (positional eligibility denoted): Kevin Fiala (LW/RW), Evgeni Malkin (C), Patrik Laine (LW/RW), Sam Bennett (C/LW/RW), Jack Hughes (C/LW), Kaapo Kakko (RW), and Timo Meier (LW/RW)?

Last place goes to Kakko. Going back to 1990-91, one other played logged 100+ games in his teens while, like Kappo, averaging less than 0.36 points and 1.8 SOG per game – Jason Wiemer. Wiemer was an eighth overall pick who topped out at 31 points in a season and was out of the NHL before he turned 30. Granted, Kappo's first two seasons have been unlike any for a prior rookie, and he is at special COVID risk due to being diabetic and having celiac disease, so maybe playing hockey was not foremost on his mind. Still though, with the lone player whose stats compared to Kappo's being a huge disappointment, I think Kappo probably is ranked last here. Maybe he figures things out, maybe not. Either way, he's below all the rest of these players.

Just above him is Meier. To say Meier has underachieved the past two seasons would be a vast understatement. Not only has his scoring cratered, but his bread and butter multi-cat prowess has waned, especially SOG and HIT. He could catch a break and see more PP time if Evander Kane misses games; however, it's not clear if Meier is skilled enough to excel without support from those around him, and that support will be hard to come by these days in San Jose.

After that, the ranking depends on the team's other keepers and strategy. Is this a team with a lot of great young talent being kept, or mostly older keepers? Is the goal to win now, or to try and build for a run in two or three years. This has the biggest impact when it comes to Malkin and Hughes, with the former, even with his poor showing last season, having great stats for this league if a team is in win-now mode, whereas Hughes might be tops if the goal is to try and win in two or three years. That makes the third worst player either Malkin, if building for the future is the goal, or Hughes if the priority is to win now, although in both cases I'd try to trade the one you don't keep rather than lose him for nothing, since another GM is bound to have the opposite goals, making the player you don't want very much in demand for them.

As for the others, I've got Fiala as best, as although Minnesota is stingy with his ice time and will be handcuffed under the cap due to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts, Fiala has done enough at the end of the last two seasons to show he's the real deal, with it only being a matter of time before he's able to shine for an entire season, with that season likely to be 2021-22. For the second spot give me Sam Bennett, who's tailor made for these categories and who, based on his contract, is locked into the top six. Think about players like John LeClair, Cam Neely, and Markus Naslund and how they struggled until being dealt in their 20s. I'm not saying Bennett will be on any of their levels; however, he has the draft pedigree and what we saw from him at the end of 2020-21 was enough to suggest he's a 60-70 point player with superb peripherals.

That leaves Laine, who I put fourth. Supporters point to his amazing early career stats and the fact he's playing under a "prove it" one year deal. But guess what – he was on a one-year deal in 2020-21 and still was apathetic. Could John Tortorella be to blame, at least in part? Sure, but what's the more likely issue is Laine being unable to perform when he's not on a line with a top center, as happened in 2018-19 in Winnipeg and last season, and could again in 2021-22.

Version one of the rankings, for a GM looking to win now, is Malkin, Fiala, Bennett, Laine, Hughes, Meier, Kakko, while for someone hoping to build to contend in a few seasons I'd go with Hughes, Fiala, Bennett, Laine, Malkin, Meier, Kakko. As noted, an effort should be made to try and trade Hughes plus perhaps Kakko in the first scenario, or Malkin in the second.

Topic #6 – In an 8 team league starting 17F, 8D, 3G, plus 12 Farm and 5 IR spots, and categories of Points (4), PIM (0.5), +\- (0.5), Wins (5), SO (5), GA (-0.5), Save (0.1), a competing team wants to keep four goalies, with the choices being Andrei Vasilevskiy, Juuse Saros, Sergei Bobrovsky, Phillip Grubauer, Jeremy Swayman, and Cal Petersen. Which four should be kept?

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Of course Vas leads the pack. He's the top goalie in fantasy, even more so with these categories, which reward those who play a lot and play well. Saros also is an easy pick. His stats for the season were brought down by giving up 27 goals in his first eight starts, after which he righted his ship in a big way, including a stretch of 17 games where he gave up two or fewer goals in 16 contests, and one or fewer in nine. What's also very key is he started 26 of his team's last 28 games. In doing so he showed signs of fatigue with some off games; but it primed him for being the workhorse this season, and the inking of David Rittich as his back-up should not interfere in that plan. Saros will be huge in this league.

Pick three is Petersen. LA has bottomed out, and an influx of youth should start to pay off as early as this season. Either way, Petersen has won the starting job and this despite, like Saros, a Q4 where he seemed to show signs of fatigue. But he's a safe bet to do well in 2021-22 and should be one of the keeps.

The last spot is tough. Swayman played superbly in limited action; but with news that Tuukka Rask is likely to rejoin the Bs after the new year it means Swayman could see less action than initially envisioned. Grubauer's contract makes him the presumed #1 in Seattle; however, the team in front of him does not appear to have the makings of a year one Vegas surprise story plus Chris Driedger might push him for starts. Grubauer's best season just happened to be when he was on the cusp of unrestricted free agency. Those are all concerns. That's not to say there aren't concerns with Bobrovsky as well. He's been a major disappointment since coming to the Panthers, whose window to compete is now, such that if Bob falters they could turn to Spencer Knight as their #1 or 1A.

My pick though would be Bob. He's never had a stretch of three seasons in a row of terrible hockey, and is a two time Vezina winner. Yes, Jonathan Quick and Martin Jones were great, until they weren't; however, neither had Bob's pedigree. I think he coasted for two years but now will be back with a vengeance. Plus, as bad as he was he still grabbed 19 wins in 31 starts, thanks to the team in front of him. He seems like the best fourth choice among the rest given these factors, the categories, and the aforementioned concerns regarding Swayman and Grubauer.

Topic #7 – In a Cap league counting G, A, Pts, +/-, who is the better keep – Filip Hronek ($4.4M for three years) or Mikael Sergachev ($4.8M for two years)?

With salaries and terms that are so close, this does boil down to who projects to be better. One key is +/-, as Hronek has been a double digit minus player for all his three seasons, whereas 2020-21 was the first year Sergachev wasn't double digits positive. That can't be ignored.

It's also interesting that with all the big contracts doled out to defensemen this offseason, Hronek inked one that pays less than Sergachev. Sure – it might just be that Detroit bargained shrewdly; but it also could mean Hronek's role won't be so significant in the coming years, particularly as Moritz Seider, who projects to be a "do it all" defenseman, lands in Motown.

Sergachev has been the higher scorer of the two since Hronek entered the league (96 points versus 80 points), yet with Hronek having fewer games played their point per game rates (0.48 for Hronek, 0.47 for Sergachev) are almost dead even. That being said, Sergachev's scoring rate has increased in each of the past two campaigns, while Hronek's has been essentially the same each of his three seasons in the NHL.

That's my concern about Hronek. Yes, it's possible his scoring has been held back by being on a poor team; however, his SOG per game is still barely at two and he's yet to average one PPPt per every five games. I worry he's on the way to becoming a player along the lines of Cam Fowler, Alex Goligoski, or Tyler Myers, who play meaningful minutes and have real life value but who never quite make the leap into solid fantasy defenseman, instead falling within the 35-45 point range most every year. Then again, if looking at defensemen who, like Hronek, scored at a rate between 0.45 and 0.55 point per game in each of their first three seasons dating back to 2000-01 we get Charlie McAvoy, who jumped to a 48-point pace in his fourth season and was above a point per game in the 2021 playoffs. If anything that's a positive sign.

As for Sergachev, not only has his scoring rate climbed in each of the past two seasons, but so too has his PP time per game on top of his SOG per game for 2020-21, which, although below two, was a career best. Yes, PPPts aren't a category in this league; however, Sergachev seems to be chipping away at the stranglehold that Victor Hedman has on PP1 minutes. Plus as was noted above, there's the elephant in the room that is +/-, where Sergachev is collective +43 in his four seasons since coming to Tampa, versus Hronek's collective -64 in three seasons.

That leads me to perhaps the key point, namely Sergachev playing for Tampa, which has scored the most goals in the NHL in the past three seasons at 742, versus Detroit being in last place at just 491. That's over a 50% difference! Yes, Detroit figures to improve, but Tampa is seemingly built for continued success as well, such that the goal gap might narrow but not too much. Look at it this way – even though Hronek has played in 34 fewer games in the last three seasons as compared to Sergachev, he's still nabbed a point on 16% of his team's goals, versus just 13% for Sergachev. Yet still Sergachev has 16 more points. Hronek is doing more with less; but this really underscores how much superior of a team Tampa is, and that Sergachev doesn't need to be "better" than Hronek to have more value in this league.

Topic #8 – In a 14 team points only keeper league starting 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 3G, a team which finished as runner up twice in a row saw that it was unlikely to contend this season and, as a result, traded Evgeni Malkin, Blake Wheeler, Alexander Radulov, Philipp Grubauer and Ondrej Palat for picks and prospects over the course of the last six months, leaving it with the following roster: Anze Kopitar, Logan Couture, Gabriel Landeskog, Dominik Kubalik, Chris Kreider, Kaapo Kakko, Andrew Mangiapane, Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko, Dylan Strome, John Carlson, Quinn Hughes, Brent Burns, Filip Hronek, Igor Shesterkin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Elvis Merzlikins, Alex Turcotte, Yegor Sharangovich, Alex Tuch, Jordan Greenway, Gabriel Vilardi, Adam Beckman, Noel Gunler, Jamie Drysdale, Jeff Skinner, Nick Leddy, Scott Perunovich, Devan Dubnyk.

The team is likely to lose Kopitar and Tarasenko in the coming draft. Given this, is it time for the team to retool, where it aims to be back in the championship mix in the next season or two and foregoes making any more trades other than to strengthen the team for the here and now, or should it embark upon a fully rebuild, looking even farther ahead and trading the likes of Kane, Carlson, Landeskog, Bob, plus others?

To be frank, I would've expected more/better assets on the roster as a result of having traded those five players, although in fairness I can't see what draft picks were received in return. Still, with the knowledge of this draft class being comparatively weak in the grand scheme of things, I would have prioritized getting young players who'd already been drafted. No need to dwell on the past – the question is what to do now.

As for whether to retool or rebuild, I think there is no way for this team to win in the next couple of years given its roster. Sure – Kane and Carlson are likely still top 20 players in this format now and won't see their totals crater in the near future; however, other than them, the goaltenders, and Hughes, there are a lot of middling talents – that is, forwards who probably won't taste 60 points and defensemen unlikely to hit the point per every other game mark.

In fact, I think this team falls into a third category, which is a long rebuild, as trading away Kane, Carlson and Landeskog will only net the team so much, and not likely enough to contend in view of the other assets and the prospects pool.I think this falls into the blow things up and look to the not so near term future category of rebuild. Does that mean having a fire sale right now? Definitely not. There is no need to rush this, and in fact I fear that having traded five players in the course of six months was too much too soon, costing this team a better return. Instead, when doing a full rebuild, it's best to trade in waves – some in the offseason, some during the season, and others when teams are fighting it out to win a championship.

Should anyone be dealt this offseason? Definitely Landeskog, who had a productive 2020-21 season and experienced UFA hype even though he didn't ultimately change teams. He's also at an age where rough and tumble players of his type have see sudden and significant drops in production. There's also the reality that Colorado was looking more to Andre Burakovsky in Q4, and that's perhaps a sign of things to come even though Landy inked a big contract. Move Landy now, but hold onto the rest until at least 2021-22 gets underway, except perhaps for Leddy, as people might think he can do things in Detroit, yet with Filip Hronek already there and Mortiz Seider on the way soon Leddy could see his point total crater, so perhaps what's best is to get something – anything – for him now versus less once the puck drops.

Bob is perhaps the team's best asset, as in a league with 42 goalie starters he'll have significant value, which, in turn, also means he could be traded closer to the end of the season, although goalies will have value enough during the campaign that he can be moved once he catches fire. Kane, on the other hand, is perfect late season trade bait, as he can be a difference maker the likes of which teams will be coveting.

Others who could be moved at some point during the 2021-22 season or even thereafter are Kubalik, Kreider, Burns and Couture. Most of them likely will be best dealt when they heat up, although waiting until the deadline, offseason, or next season could yield a better end result.

What should the return be? Actual prospects should be prioritized, since you know what you are getting and sometimes fantasy teams have less of an attachment to prospects than they do to picks, which hold the lure of the unknown home run. Seize upon that and get prospects who figure to be 2-3+ years from making an impact. That's the best path forward for this team.

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LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV COL
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
CAM TALBOT DET

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56.7 MATTHEW TKACHUK JESPER BOQVIST SAM BENNETT
55.9 EVAN RODRIGUES EETU LUOSTARINEN ANTON LUNDELL
52.9 CARTER VERHAEGHE SAM REINHART ALEKSANDER BARKOV

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