Ramblings: Kaprizov and Merzlikins Sign; Training Camp Battles in the West (Sept 22)
Alexander MacLean
2021-09-22
Elvis Merzlikins signed the same extension as teammate Oliver Bjorkstrand, which means a $5.4 million cap hit for the next five years. That gives him the edge in the crease over Joonas Korpisalo, just because of the politics. He’s someone that might come at a bit more of a discount than your average starter come draft day, but he does have a few more risks than your average starter as well.
Merzlikins was projected at $4.1 million by my numbers if he was to sign an extension at this point. It seems like it's a touch too high right now, but with a bit more of a workload, there's no reason Elvis can't out-play this deal. The going may be a little tougher in the first couple of years though with Columbus expected to be a bit lower in the standings in the short term.
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Kirill Kaprizov put pen to paper with the Wild on a new five-year contract.
The deal carries a $9 million AAV, which is a little a higher than where I had him projected (close to $8 million). He’s worth the money though, and he has ushered in a new wave with the Wild where they are finally fantasy relevant again. Look for Kaprizov to push for 90 points this year, though unfortunately for some poolies, he doesn’t offer a lot in the peripherals department.
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Training camps begin today! The offseason is officially done.
Looking into training camp battles, there are opportunities for big spikes in fantasy production. Sometimes when a top line wing spot is up for grabs, none of the players in contention look to have much fantasy appeal, but then one of those players gets a big bump. Getting ahead of the curve on these, and knowing which bets are the best ones to make with your late picks, those are how you can win leagues. You can lose leagues in the first few rounds of a draft, but you don't win them there. It's the middle and late rounds where you win the year, so let's take a look at a few of those battles. I'll have my thoughts on the Eastern teams next week.
Anaheim Ducks
Josh Mahura is NHL ready, but the Ducks have six defencemen on NHL contracts, plus they will be finding a spot to roster Jamie Drysdale. Mahura can contend with Drysdale for powerplay time, and puts up points everywhere he goes. With 20 points in 28 AHL games last season, he brings something the Ducks have been missing for a while now. With Drysdale on the right side, Mahura slots in as the puck-mover on the left-hand side behind Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm. His only other competition on the left side is Jacob Larsson and Kodie Curran. Neither are more than bottom-pairing NHL defencemen, so there's an opportunity there for Mahura to jump to the NHL level and start producing already.
Arizona Coyotes
The return of Dmitrij Jaskin already puts a question mark in the lineup, and then taking into account not knowing how the team plans to fill the centre position after trading Christian Dvorak, and it looks as though the forward lines are already all prepped for the blender. Whoever ends up playing with Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller could be in line for a career-high season, unless they break up that pair, in which case whichever one ends up with Kessel should be the one racking up more points. Jaskin has the chatter following him around that makes it seem as though he'll get first crack at a prime lineup spot, but don't count out the hulking Lawson Crouse, or any number of the young guns.
The Coyotes have a bunch of skilled forwards that could make the team in a sheltered offensive role. Recent draft pick Dylan Guenther would be a bit of a surprise, but he also has the highest upside. Matias Maccelli and Jan Jenik should be in the mix as well, and it should be noted that Jenik projects as a solid multi-category fantasy option.
On defence there are also a few youngsters. Ilya Lyubushkin is an underrated option for multi-category leagues, and if he's playing every game he could give Radko Gudas a run for his money in the hits department. Heady puck-movers Victor Soderstrom, Conor Timmins and Kyle Capobianco will be looking to find opportunities behind the all-around excellent Jakob Chychrun, and the one-dimensional Shayne Gostisbehere. There may only be room for two of them to make the team, but all have some scoring upside once they become full-time NHLers.
In the crease, Carter Hutton acts as a pylon in the way of Josef Korenar seeing ample starts and providing huge saves volume for fantasy owners that can live with some bad ratios. The dark-horse here is Ivan Prosvetov, as the highest upside goalie in Arizona's system, and nearly NHL ready at 22. Another year in the AHL would likely serve him best, but with Korenar – he of 10 career NHL games – and an injury-prone Hutton in front of him, there's not much in his way. Good luck guessing who hits 40 starts here.
Calgary Flames
The Flames signed Connor Mackey to a one-way deal, making him the sixth defenceman on their team with one of those deals, and making it look as though he was the front-runner for the last spot alongside the five incumbents. However, the Flames then went out and signed Michael Stone and Erik Gudbranson, creating a log-jam that Mackey will need to fight through. Also in the mix is European standout Johannes Kinnvall, but his two-way deal puts him behind the eight ball. If you're looking for PIMs, then you can't go wrong with either of Gudbranson or Mackey earning the last slot, though Mackey may see some second-unit power play time while Gudbranson would rack up a few more hits and blocks.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks have been rebuilding on the fly for a couple of years now, and look to be back in playoff contention, especially with the return of Jonathan Toews to the lineup after a year away (he's apparently looking like he's in the best shape of his life by the way – surprise, surprise). The forward ranks look fairly set though, and the team again has some stability in net for the first time in a couple years. On defence, NCAA signee Wyatt Kalynuk showed well with his cup of coffee last season, but he has some competition in the form of Riley Stillman and Caleb Jones.
Of the three, I only own shares of Stillman in one league, as he is a great cheap guy to own in cap leagues that count peripheral stats. Jones and Kalynuk are more in the puck-moving mould, but neither is likely to have much fantasy value even if they are playing every game.
Dallas Stars
The skater situation in Dallas looks relatively uncomplicated, but they have four NHL goaltenders, and I'm assuming they're not going to start scheduling to split games between them. That means there's only 82 games to split between them. Ben Bishop's health is still in question, so he may not be an immediate impact on the team's plans. Anton Khudobin is the incumbent that is expected to carry the biggest load, and it's tough to think that anything he does in training camp will have any effect on his starting the majority of games early, and about 50% of the team's games on the season.
The complication comes in the shape of free agent signee Braden Holtby, and Dallas wouldn't have brought him in without knowing he would be playing some role at the NHL level. That means it's unlikely that rookie standout Jake Oettinger will be able to win a spot in the crease, regardless of how well he plays in camp; and he will show well. Of the goalies in Dallas, he has the highest upside, and he may even be the best one today. Even last season he was a few steps ahead of Khudobin:
Minnesota Wild
With Kirill Kaprizov's contract situation in the rearview mirror, there are a few rookies to be watching. Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, and Calen Addision will all be making excellent cases to make the team. There isn't a lot of room for Addison, but his dynamic ability to run a powerplay would serve the Wild well. Perhaps more importantly though, Marco Rossi could be a big part of the solution to the Wild's centre position. He's NHL ready right now, and despite his stature, he's going to win more puck battles than he loses because he is built like a tree trunk. He's skilled, and there are a plethora of skilled winger options around him. If his fitness is back after a long battle with Covid complications, then he is one of those rare rookies that could push for a point-per-game right off the bat. He could have a similar impact to Jason Robertson or teammate Kaprizov.
Nashville Predators
The Predators, like the Wild, are looking to have a bit of an infusion of youth into the lineup. There are a few young forwards that will battle with the veterans under head coach John Hynes who notoriously spreads his minutes around. Eeli Tolvanen and Cody Glass will be fighting for top-six minutes, while top-prospect Philip Tomasino is fighting for a spot on the roster. All three should be the next wave of offence in Nashville, and sooner rather than later.
Tomasino, after last year's success in the AHL, is looking to take his high upside to the NHL level. He's less of a sure thing to make it than Marco Rossi above, but he might have a similar upside for the next few years.
Seattle Kraken
The Kraken are one giant pot of training camp battles. They have extra players at every skater position, and over the last couple of weeks have just brought in more rather than trading some away. It seems that they are really pushing to make sure that everyone has to battle for a spot. The team is going to be really interesting to watch, as there will be some surprises on who ends up higher in the lineup than expected.
Usual top-nine wingers like Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Blackwell, and Mason Appleton are some of the names to keep an eye on that could provide a bit of an unexpected offensive punch if they get deployed like top-six options.
Vegas Golden Knights
The newcomers in Vegas are going to add some spice to the forward ranks. Nolan Patrick will make sure than Chandler Stephenson can't get complacent with his first line role, while Evgeni Dadonov and Mattias Janmark will challenge the likes of Reilly Smith for time in the top-six and on one of the power play units.
Dadonov may actually be a great fit on the second line with Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson, knocking Smith down to a third scoring line with Patrick and Janmark (or Alex Tuch when healthy). The top-six is going to be the best spot in Vegas though, so keep a keen eye on who the odd men out are.
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Feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.
Stay safe!