Fantasy Take: Sanford to Ottawa, Brown to St. Louis

Ian Gooding

2021-09-26

The St. Louis Blues have traded Zach Sanford to the Ottawa Senators for 2016 first-round pick Logan Brown. If Brown plays 30 games for the Blues this season, the Senators will also receive a 2022 fourth-round pick.

Sanford gives the Senators a more proven option than Brown, who was one of many young players that the Senators have in their stable. After a 42-point pace in 2019-20, Sanford fell to just 16 points in 52 games in 2020-21 (a 25-point pace). Given his career production, Sanford likely slots in as a middle-six spot with the Sens, most likely as a third-liner behind Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle. If Tkachuk misses any time because his contract situation is not resolved, Sanford could move up to the top line, which would provide him with a short-term value increase. At 6-4 and 207 lbs., Sanford also provides the Sens with size.

The 6-6 Brown has scored one goal and nine points in 30 career NHL games, and will try to make a go of it in his hometown of St. Louis after not being able to secure a full-time NHL job with the Sens. Since Brown had been drafted, the likes of Josh Norris and Shane Pinto had passed him on the depth chart. Brown has also battled injuries throughout his career, which didn't help his cause. He has the potential to play more games with the Blues this season after falling out of favor in Ottawa.

From the Prospects Guide (purchase yours here):

Logan Brown, C (Dobber Prospects profile)

(2021: 126) (2020: 29)

One of Ottawa's top prospects over the past three years, Brown's 2020-21 season can be summed up with one word: disastrous. Horrible. Ugly. Well, okay you pick the word, as long as it's negative. He did not look good in training camp, and early in the AHL season he seemed disinterested. A back injury wiped out much of the schedule for him, and that's been the biggest problem with him over the years – injuries. Perhaps the sore back influenced Brown's poor play, but regardless of that, the fact remains that it's always something with him. As a hulking 6-6 centerman with tons of skill and 70 points in 71 AHL games heading into last season, expectations were high. To take a step back at the age of 23, while dealing with yet another injury, is not very promising. Could use a change of scenery.

Upside Comparable: Blake Wheeler (25-45-70, 60 PIM)

3YP: (17-25-42, 40 PIM)

Fantasy Upside/NHL Certainty: 20%, 65%

Expected Arrival: This fall.

DH Draft Advice: Too soon. Wait until next year to consider drafting.

The Blues can use the $2 million that came off the books for Sanford to sign either James Neal or Michael Frolik, who are on PTOs. Neal scored a hat trick while Frolik also scored a late goal in Saturday's exhibition game. But the reality is, the team is still tight against the cap and even keeping the cheap Brown on the pro team, they are still slightly over.

Brown is no longer exempt from waivers and the Blues are unlikely to give up an asset for him only to lose him two weeks later. So he will likely make the team at least to start. Whereas a prospect such as Klim Kostin is still waivers-exempt, and thus can be sent down to the AHL without issue. There is no question that this is Brown’s biggest chance of his career – he needs to at least prove that he is an NHLer. If he can do that, then we can revisit his upside in future seasons.

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Players this helps, in order:

Brown

Sanford

Neal

Frolik

Players this hurts, in order:

Alex Formenton

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