Looking Ahead: The Calm Before the Storm

Andrew Santillo

2021-10-08

Because this is the first article of the season and games haven’t been played yet, all stats are from 2020-21.

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Jeff Carter, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (Available in 88% of ESPN leagues)- Yep, you read that right, Jeff Carter is the immediate fix you need on your fantasy team. In ten words or fewer, here's why- Everyone (figuratively) on Pittsburgh is hurt. This means that someone needs to step into the top centre role on this club, and that will most likely be the 36-year-old Carter.

Carter played 14 games for the Penguins last season after coming over from LA, putting up 11 points with an ATOI of 16:55. Coming over to Pittsburgh he was slated on the second line with at the time a struggling Malkin before finding a home on a line with Jared McCann and Jason Zucker. With both Crosby and Malkin out with injury and Guentzel in COVID-19 protocol, we should see Carter slotted into the first line center spot, as well as centering Pittsburgh's first power play unit. For the short term, Jeff Carter is in an advantageous spot for fantasy owners.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Conor Garland, LW/RW, Vancouver Canucks (Available in 18% of ESPN Leagues) –So in case you haven't heard by now, the two biggest moves of the Canucks offseason took place last week with the club signing Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, but I think there was another signing that took place that could be extremely beneficial for the Canucks and Garland fantasy owners alike. It's difficult to name a player for this category with a new season bringing promise to so many players, but Garland's name stuck out amongst the rest. Right now, he's higher owned in leagues across each platform but if you're in a league that hasn't drafted yet, Garland is looking to start on a line with Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser.

Garland is coming off back-to-back 39-point seasons, the only difference is that in 2019-20 he reached that playing 68 games, last season it only took him 49 games. Garland never really played on a consistent line in Arizona and spent the majority of the time back in his own zone, but for I don't see a reason why Garland couldn't at least end the season somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 points.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Christian Dvorak, C, Montreal Canadiens (Owned in 75% of ESPN leagues)- Dvorak came over from Arizona this past offseason and so far in preseason play he has centered the Habs second line with the most recent line combination being himself at centre, plus Jonathan Drouin and Josh Anderson on his wings. He is also centering their second power-play unit. The cause for concern here isn't so much Dvorak's impact on the club, it's possibly the other centres around him.

With Jake Evans returning to the club from injury along with Ryan Poehling seeing ice time, it's hard to tell early if Dvorak's spot behind Nick Suzuki as second line center will be a regular spot or if he moves up and down this roster. If Dvorak stays where he is now fine, but I'd have to imagine his line could change throughout the season. His current wings, Josh Anderson and Jonathan Drouin, were together 8.9% of the time during 5-on-5 play so that's good news for Dvorak owners but this would be a player and roster I would watch closely throughout the regular season.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Filip Forsberg, C, Nashville Predators (Owned in 74.3% of ESPN Leagues) – Season after season I like to laugh when Forsberg is usually drafted either three rounds too early or if I'm honest, drafted at all.

What are we chasing here? The All-Rookie team he made back in 2014-15? Actually, let's use that season as a bench mark here. Since that season his GF% has gone down cratering to 43.59 last season and his HDCF% has also dropped since 2014-15 to an even 50 this past season. Sure, he'll get first line minutes and top PP time. But if we've learned anything from Nashville it's that come midway through the season, they'll have a third line of something like Nick Cousins – Mikael Granland – Luke Kunin who for two weeks will have an xGoals for per 60 of like 5.6. Wait for that to happen and catch lightning in a bottle then.


Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs from October 12th to October 19th

Vancouver – Last season was a difficult one for the Canucks to say the least, but I like this club coming in and I really like how the schedule works for them in the beginning of the season. Their first three games are on the road vs Edmonton, Philadelphia, and Detroit but that's an Edmonton team that will likely have shaky depth at best, a Philadelphia team with questions on their blue line, and well, Detroit. I don't see why the Canucks can't put up numbers to start the season.

Toronto – Toronto is on this list for the first week and let's be honest, this will not be the last time Toronto is on the Love 'Em side. They'll open the year vs Montreal who will likely be without Carey Price and then have two games vs Ottawa, which is enough for me to Love 'Em but even more of a reason is the 5-2-2 record that they had vs the Sens last season.

Vegas- It was hard to find a third club here early, but Vegas is a safety valve for all things fantasy and DFS so why not the Golden Knights? Vegas opens their season at home vs Seattle, which if there's any Seattle fans new to here, means that Vegas is going to put their top line out against Seattle's depth. Following opening night, they'll be on the road vs LA before a long break to play Nashville. It's a solid spot to start the season.

 Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Chicago – If I could write up a schedule I would want the least out of the gate it would go something like, "I don't want to see the Avs…no back to backs, and I don't want to be on the road."  Well! The Hawks open on the road in Colorado before having a back-to-back vs New Jersey and Pittsburgh. Sure, maybe we can go down narrative street and get a good Marc Andre Fleury start vs Pittsburgh but I don't have a lot faith in a club that from April 1st through the end of the season led the league in HDCA, even with an upgraded blue line coming into this season.

Seattle – So, first of all, I have no idea what to expect from Seattle out of the gate and second of all…well, I have no idea what to expect from Seattle out of the gate. What I do know is that they will be on the road for their first five games and from a fantasy standpoint we can only speculate what their lines and special teams are going to look like. For now they're a stay away until we've seen them with some more games under their belt.

Boston- It's just the amount of games, or I suppose it would be game, to start the season that is forcing me list Boston here. One home game vs (potentially) a fun Dallas team is enough for me to stay away from Boston to start the season. The Marchand – Bergeron – Pastrnak line will surely get them on the Love 'Em side of things as the season goes on but on an abbreviated opening week there's other options to go to.

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Wednesday, October 13th to Tuesday, October 19th, 2021
Best Bets
Toronto 4.29 – Away OTT – Home MTL OTT NYR
Montreal 4.25- Away TOR BUF – Home NYR SJS
Vancouver 4.13 – Away EDM PHI DET BUF
Seattle 3.85 – Away NSH CBJ PHI NJD
NY Rangers – Away WAS MTL TOR – Home DAL
 
Steer Clear
Boston 1.00 – Home DAL
Carolina 1.70 – Away NSH – Home NYI
San Jose 1.90 – Away MTL – Home WPG
St.Louis 2.00 – Away COL ARI 
New Jersey 2.05 – Home CHI SEA
Thursday, October 14th to Wednesday, October 20th, 2021
Best Bets
Seattle 3.85 – Away NSH CBJ PHI NJ
Dallas 3.75 – Away NYR BOS OTT PIT
Buffalo 3.41 – Home MTL ARI VAN
Montreal 3.35 – Away BUF – Home NYR SJS
Toronto  3.30 – Away 3.30 – Home OTT NYR
 
Steer Clear
Washington 1.89 – Home TBL COL
San Jose 1.90 – Away MTL – Home WPG
Winnipeg 1.95 – Away SJS MIN
Vegas 2 – Away LAK – Home STL
Boston 2.04 – Away PHI – Home DAL
Friday, October 15th to Thursday, October 21st, 2021
Best Bets
Vancouver 4.13 – Away PHI DET BUF CHI
Chicago 3.84 – Away NJD PIT – Home NYI VAN
Anaheim 3.70 – Away CGY EDM WPG – Home MIN
Edmonton 3.29 – Away ARI – Home CGY ANA
Arizona 3.24 – Away BUF – Home STL EDM
 
Steer Clear
Los Angeles 1.80 – Away NSH – Home MIN
Carolina 1.81 – Away NSH MTL
Tampa Bay 2 – Away WAS – Home FLA
Boston 2.04 – Away PHI – Home DAL
Pittsburgh 2.05 – Home CHI DAL
Saturday, October 16th to Friday, October 22nd, 2021
Best Bets
Edmonton 4.10 – Away ARI VGK – Home CGY ANA
Dallas 3.90 – Away BOS OTT PIT – Home LAK
San Jose 3.89 – Away MTL OTT TOR – Home WPG
Toronto 3.41 – Home OTT NYR SJS
Buffalo 3.31 – Home ARI VAN BOS
 
Steer Clear
Minnesota 1.90 – 2.00 – Away LAK – Home WPG
Philadelphia 1.94 – Home SEA BOS
Tampa Bay 2 – Away WAS – Home FLA
Pittsburgh 2.05 – Home CHI DAL
New Jersey 2.10 – Home SEA WAS
Sunday, October 17th to Saturday October 23rd, 2021
Best Bets
Anaheim 3.61 – Away CGY EDM WPG WIM 
New Jersey 3.65 – Home SEA WAS BUF
Ottawa 3.20 – Home DAL SJS NYR
Montreal 3.20 – Home SJS CAR DET
Seattle 3.15 – Away PHI NJ – Home VAN
 
Steer Clear
Chicago 1.94 – Home NYI VAN
Tampa Bay 1.94 – Home FLA COL
Pittsburgh 2.00 – Home DAL TOR
Minnesota 2.05 – WPG ANA
Vegas 2.10 – STL EDM
Monday, October 18th to Sunday October 24th, 2021 
Best Bets
Detroit 4 – Away MTL CHI – Home CBJ CGY
NY Islanders 3.85 – Away CHI CBJ ARI VGK
San Jose 3.80 – Away MTL OTT TOR BOS
Nashville 3.76 – WPG MN – Home LAK NYR
Anaheim 3.61 – Away CGY EDM WPG MIN
 
Steer Clear
Tampa Bay 1.94 – Home FLA COL
Dallas 1.95 – Away PIT – Home LAK
Pittsburgh 2 – Home DAL TOR
Ottawa 2.21 – Home SJS NYR
Los Angeles 2.71 – Away NSH DAL STL 
Tuesday October 19th to Monday, October 25th, 2021
Best Bets
Florida 4.11 – Away TBL PHI – Home COL ANA
Washington 4.09 – Away NJD OTT – Home COL CGY
Detroit 4 – Away MTL CHI – Home CBJ CGY
Buffalo 3.99 – Away NJD – Home VAN BOS TBL
NY Islanders 3.85 – Away CHI CBJ ARI VGK
 
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 2 – Home DAL TOR
Seattle 2.10 – Away NJD – Home VAN
Anaheim 2.66 – Away EDM WPG MIN
Colorado 2.76 – Away WAS FLA TBL 
Arizona 2.79 – Away FLA – Home EDM NYI

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