Ramblings – 16 Prospects Who Made an Impression on Me (Good and Bad) In Training Camp (Oct 11)

Dobber

2021-10-11

I hope you enjoyed the Fantasy Guide this year. Tons of updates once again, and I'll keep going through today and Tuesday. And if something major happens during the games Tuesday night or Wednesday, I will go in and give bonus updates! Grab it here. I stayed up late Sunday doing a lot of updates, and didn’t get through everything I wanted to do. So I’ll be plowing through it all Monday morning. The rosters get finalized, so I want to be on top of those. I did pretty well this year in projecting rosters, I must say, but there’s bound to be a few surprises.

For my francophone readers who prefer to read their gold in their native tongue, we have a translated version of the Guide and the updates are not even a day behind – often within a couple of hours. You can order your French version here and please share with any of your francophone pals – without solid support in this venture we couldn't continue it, but so far support has been tremendous. Just keep it up!

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Rick Roos will have his Fearless Forecasts tomorrow as he does every year before the season starts. This will be Rick's 10th season as a writer here on DobberHockey. Let's give some props to Rick! A very thorough and meticulous fantasy hockey writer, I think everyone would agree on that.

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As is always the case, taking in the training camp news and preseason action brings prospects to our attention. Some for positive reasons and some for negative. Here are the prospects who made the biggest impact – one way or the other – on me…

Note: this is not to say that others didn't make an impression. Many did, but I expected it. Such as Nils Lundkvist – he's been great, but I fully expected that. He even leapfrogged Zac Jones. But I think very highly of Lundkvist and others like him, so I am not including those players here. These are only the players I'd move up or down my lists by quite a bit.

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Let's get started.

Alexander Volkov, ANA Down

I didn't have high hopes for Volkov. I didn't think he was the next big thing. But I thought there was something there and if he could prove himself as a second-liner and put up points in the low-40s then he could build on that in future years. But to not even make the team? Stick a fork in him!

Karel Vejmelka, ARI, Up

I love this sleeper pick enough to scoop him in one keeper and one dynasty. Originally drafted by Nashville in 2015, he wasn't signed until Arizona signed him as a free agent in May. He beat out Josef Korenar for the backup goalie job. At 25 he is the right age for a goalie to make his mark in the NHL. And listed at 6-4 (though some sources say 6-3), he is prime goalie size. But the thing I like the best? He's behind Carter Hutton. I can't think of a better (i.e. really bad) goalie to be behind. The only problem is – will Arizona win 25 games this year?

Jack Studnicka, BOS, Up

I had questions about his making the team. It's a deep team and Studnicka struggled last season without the puck. I'm still not convinced he sticks for the full season, but he's certainly shown that he'll play half of it and is within a year of being in the NHL for good. He had four points in four preseason games.

Arttu Ruotsalainen, BUF, Up

The 23-year-old had an excellent North American debut last season when he tallied a point-per-game in the AHL and scored five goals in 17 NHL games. It reminded me of the splash that Victor Olofsson made several years ago. In preseason, Ruotsalainen was given tons of ice time and was second on the team in average PP TOI. That tells me that the team will be giving him opportunities to produce. He played a lot with Vinnie Hinostroza, another player who impressed me in training camp, and together these two mini-mites (both players are 5-9) could surprise. At least early on.

Brandon Hagel, CHI, Up

He gets stuck playing with checking-line players, his ice time is that of a third-liner, and he never gets PP time. So why do I like him? Because he produces anyway. Last year he had 24 points in 52 games, but with quarterly production of: 2, 7, 6 and 9 (i.e. slow start, strong finish), and ice time that was 12:49 per game in the first quarter, and 15:58 in the final quarter (including some PP time). He makes it happen. He earns it by taking advantage of the few opportunities he gets. This reminds me of Patrick Sharp, big time. Anyway, in preseason action he tallied five points in four games. I predict improvement as the season goes on, with a surprisingly strong final quarter again.

Sampo Ranta, COL, Up

Ranta may not do much this season for fantasy, but just forcing his way onto the club at least to start is pretty special. The 21-year-old will play on a depth line and if he can play an aggressive brand of hockey and use his 6-2 frame effectively, he could help leagues that track the physical categories with 150 Hits and 50+ PIM to go with the 25 points or so that he puts up. In three or four years he could be a 60-point guy.

Kirill Tyutyayev, DET, Up

The 21-year-old didn't get any points in three preseason outings, but the coach and his teammates were raving about his performance in training camp. The Wings took a flier on him in 2019, using their seventh-round pick. So he was on nobody's radar. But now he's on mine. I don't expect him to make the team next year or even the year after, but I'll be watching his progress now with great interest and if he continues on this path then I don't see why he can't be a solid fantasy own when he's 24.

Lucas Raymond, DET, Up

He went into camp 15th on my Fantasy Prospects List. He ends camp at No.4. Pretty much tied for third, in fact, with Alex Newhook. Raymond dominated. Was clearly Detroit's most prolific player. Today we find out of he makes the team and there is actually some speculation that he may not (???). If he doesn't make the team, then we know that Steve Yzerman and the Red Wings are all in for 'Pain for Shane'.

Grigori Denisenko, FLA, Down

Ugh. I hated that the Panthers over-signed NHL players. Too many bodies on one-way contracts means that their elite prospects have zero chance of making it. They eased some of that by trading Juho Lammikko, but not enough. Still… the reality is, if Denisenko had a strong camp then he would have lasted longer. He was cut awfully early. I don't like that at all, and he fell from 10th on my Fantasy Prospects List down to 19th.

Adam Beckman, MIN, Up

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I legit thought Beckman was still two years away. Turns out he is ready right now. He didn't make the Wild because their top six is filled. Rather than play him in a checking role, which we see most teams do, the Wild are doing the right thing here and putting him in the AHL to get top-six minutes there. He'll play with Marco Rossi and Matt Boldy (when Boldy returns from injury) to likely form the most dominant line in the AHL. The team will likely make room for Beckman next season.

Kaiden Guhle, MTL, Up

He may actually make the team today at the age of 19. Of course, this would probably just be short term until Joel Edmundson returns. But still – this is another prospect I figured was still two or even three years out. But he looks like a sure thing to make the team next year. And that's if he doesn't stick this year. I hope Montreal doesn't keep him all year. They do not have a good track record with rushing their top young defensemen (ahem Mete, Juulsen).

Egor Afanasyev, NSH, Up

A final cut for the Preds, but he made it oh so close. At 6-4, 201 pounds I figured he was minimum three years away. But the 20-year-old scored three goals and four points in three preseason games, using his big body effectively to make things happen. He produced his points playing with checking-line caliber players, too. I will be very interested to see how well he adapts to AHL hockey over a full season. Now squarely on my radar and clearly ahead of the curve I had him on.

William Eklund, SJS, Up

Well, we all know what this guy's been doing. He's forcing the matter. The Sharks would love to bring him along slowly but he's just not having it. He's been too good. He'll probably stick, likely for the full season, and he's an early Calder candidate.

Nic Petan, VAN, Up

Yes, I said Nic Petan. And yes, I wrote "up". Because you can't really go down from a "zero". I mean, I have Petan completely 100% written off. Career minor-leaguer and future European star in one of the leagues over there. He's now 26, and normally that's too old to even consider. But a lot of those smaller players do nothing until this age (he's 5-9). Now out from under Toronto's ridiculous NHL roster depth, Petan has had a strong preseason, scoring twice in four games and taking 13 shots on net. He's also won a lot of faceoffs. It's going to be a tough decision to cut him, but if he survives – I'll be paying attention to the linemates and ice time that he gets. A true underdog, and I'll be rooting for him.

Jack Dugan, VGK, Down

Dugan was one of my favorite prospects all summer long. I had him eyeballed for my dynasty draft and was going to make him my top pick (which was 25th overall). I knew I'd get him there, too. Loved his huge production in college and loved his transition to the AHL. At 23 years, I knew that a player like him had about two years to make Vegas. And while I was disappointed that Vegas signed so many NHL players, I still liked Dugan's chances of getting into enough NHL games throughout the season with various recalls, that he would earn himself a spot for next year. But then, throughout training camp, I kept reading quotes from the coach about his "play without the puck" and "defensive responsibilities". While the reports talk about his creativity when he has the puck, there was too much talk about when he doesn't. It scared me off, and I went through four straight draft picks where I could have selected him, but didn't. I would have taken him with my sixth pick (45th overall), but he was finally taken by someone else. I would have taken him at 25 if he was 22 years old. But at 23…to me he has just next year to make the team. One more camp. And I just don't like those odds. I'm afraid he'll be a Nic Petan! But, as with Petan, I'll be rooting for him.

Hendrix Lapierre, WSH, Up

I think I actually like Lapierre more than I like Connor McMichael, for points-only leagues. And I did not see that coming. Still a little weak on his faceoffs (as most prospects are when they first reach the NHL), Lapierre nonetheless picked up five assists in four games. I'm not sure Lapierre sticks for the full season, but he'll get his nine games in I'm sure.

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The Ilya Mikheyev injury is just terrible luck, but I see it every year happening to one or two players. Last year was a Mulligan. He played five games in 13 months and returned from a fluke wrist injury. I generally give players 25 games to get going from that. And of course he was unproductive for those 25 games, give or take. And by the time he started getting some bounces, he was on the fourth line – which on a deep team like this is to be expected. Now here is, a fresh start, playing on the John Tavares line and having a good preseason, and now he's out for what looks to be several weeks. At his age (turned 27 Sunday!), this is his only chance to show he can be a top sixer. All but dashed now.

I remember this happening to Cal O'Reilly, who was finally proving himself as an NHLer and actually leading Nashville in scoring 17 games into the season. And then he broke his leg. By the time he returned it was March, and the team's top six had long been established in his absence. All they could offer him was a fourth-line role, and of course he couldn't produce in that situation. And we all know what happened to O'Reilly since then. Well, actually we don't – and that's the point. But every year there is a player or two that has a "ahhh…what might have been" situation.

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Dobbernomics is open for registration! It's a free game – and it's my passion project. We are having one last season using this 'Beta' format. Next year this will (almost 100% take it to the bank) be on a sleek new platform with accompanying app, better navigation and more tools.

Back in 1998 and 1999 I fell in love with the Smallworld format. For football, baseball and hockey – I played it all. I loved the idea of adding and dropping players while trying to maximize their value. Pick up a guy at $5 (pretend money) and he goes on a three-game tear which makes other game-players pick him up. And that makes his value jump over those few days to, say, $5.50. I then drop him and then have an extra 50 cents to spend on the next guy I pick up. Yeah – your team value rises/falls based on the real ownership of the players. The idea is to not only have your team finish the season with the most points in your league (and/or the world), but also to have the highest team salary value. You start with $50 (pretend dollars) to spend.

Anyway, I loved Smallworld. But they couldn't monetize this great game. So they sold it to RotoHog, who tried to monetize the game and that cost them users and the game was done by (I'm guessing) around 2004. I brought it back to life and it's free. I lose money just hosting it, having the programmers set it up, putting my own time into it…because I love it. That's the very definition of 'passion project'. Give it a try!

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Enjoy turkey dinner with the family, Canada!

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
BRYAN RUST PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MTL Players
23.1 NICK SUZUKI JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY COLE CAUFIELD
19.1 BRENDAN GALLAGHER CHRISTIAN DVORAK JOSH ANDERSON
16.8 EMIL HEINEMAN JAKE EVANS JOEL ARMIA

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