At the risk of jinxing things, we finally have a full 82 game schedule on tap again for 2021-22. Will that impact teams and players; and if so, to what extent? It remains to be seen, although what we do know is prognosticators will make predictions for 2021-22, and that includes my annual 15 Fearless Forecasts.

For the crazy season that was 2020-21, I think I did okay with my forecasts, the results of which you can see here. What does 2021-22 have in store? One never knows, except as usual I won't be making any "softball" predictions. No – these are called Fearless Forecasts for a reason, since although they're all grounded in at least some statistical or other form of logic, they're definitely meant to be bolder than more traditional predictions. And clicking the link above to see the results from my 2020-21 Forecasts, you'll see even in cases where my Forecasts don't ultimately come true there are lessons to be learned which everyone can apply in their fantasy leagues, as well as me in making future predictions, like the ones to follow.

So without further ado, onto the 2021-22 Forecasts!

1) Neither Mark Stone nor Max Pacioretty will score 70 points

The chemistry between Stone and Pacioretty in 2020-21 was undeniable, as they both had points on 36 even strength Vegas goals, tying for third in ES point pairs among all NHLers. I think their magic was a result of a shortened season not allowing for stats to renormalize, plus opposing teams perhaps being caught somewhat off guard, as well as Chandler Stephenson unsustainably underachieving.

For Stone, of the 94 other instances of a winger scoring 1.1+ points per game in 50+ games dating back to 2000-01, only Alex Tanguay – twice – had a lower SOG per game rate than Stone's 1.78. And it also was Tanguay who was the only one to best Stone's SH% of 21.4%. What did Tanguay's stats look like at age 29 an onward, which is how old Stone will be this season? Not very good, as he never cracked the 70-point mark again.

As for Pacioretty, players just don't come along and set a career high in scoring rate at age 32, especially when that rate is 87 points and they had posted a 70+ point scoring rate just twice in their career. In fact, dating back to 2000-01 there are only nine other instances of players who, at age 32+, fired 3.5+ SOG per game while averaging 1.05 points per game. What did the rest have in common? Scoring 98+ points in at least one prior season, which is far and above what Pacioretty had previously done.

On top of that, Pacioretty shot 13.8%, or 25% higher than his career rate entering 2020-21. So right there Patches should have had only 18 goals, which would've brought his scoring rate down ten points. He also finished with 19 points in 14 games, a rate well higher than what we've seen from him since he joined Vegas, and likely something that would've normalized had the 2020-21 campaign lasted the usual 82 games.

Another factor working against Pacioretty and Stone scoring as well in 2021-22 is Stephenson, who presumably will be the duo's center yet again. By Q4, Stephenson was shooting more (2.26 SOG per game, versus 1.6 for the season as a whole) and getting ample ice time (19:38 per game overall with 2:53 on the PP, versus 18:06 and 2:06 for the season as a whole). Just as importantly, Stephenson was responding, as he had 12 points in 15 games (65 point full season pace), and nine points in his last ten, during which he averaged 20:00+ in all but two contests.

Plus, Stephenson's IPP overall was a paltry 52.2%, and on the Power Play it was an even lower 38.5%. Add to that a 38.1% secondary assists percentage, which is extremely low for a center, and it paints the picture of a player due to tally more points in the normal course, with those points coming from one of Stone and Pacioretty, and underscoring why they should see their totals dip this season.

2) Alexander Wennberg will score at a higher points per game rate than Jared McCann

Regardless of how successful the Kraken might be from a fantasy perspective in this, their inaugural NHL season, the consensus is certain players are likely to pace the team in scoring. Among them is McCann, who last season set a career high with a 61-point scoring pace, his fourth straight season with a scoring pace that was higher than that of his previous campaign. And he did this despite taking the ice for only 14:07 per game, leading to a P/60 of 3.2, which was higher than, to name just a few, Sebastian Aho, John Tavares, Patrice Bergeron, and Alex Ovechkin. Accordingly, there are high hopes for McCann to build upon his success as he finally gets the ice time and consistently favorable deployment he's lacked to date.

But digging deeper regarding McCann's 2020-21 campaign, of his ten PPPts, nine came with Sidney Crosby and/or Jake Guentzel on the ice. And no one is going to confuse any Kraken forward with either of them. McCann also benefitted from superb chemistry with Jeff Carter, as nine more of McCann's points came alongside Carter, who only logged 14 contests with the Pens. So as much as McCann seems poised for success, a lot of what led to his career best 2020-21 scoring rate is not going to be what he finds in Seattle.

Then there's Wennberg, who's a former first round pick and less than a year older than McCann. At 21, Wennberg broke out with a 59-point campaign, only to see his scoring pace shrink by 17 then 16 in his next two seasons. He was shipped to Florida before 2020-21, and did decent. But the key for Wennberg was his best scoring quarter during last season came not when he was most often flanked by Jonathan Huberdeau and Patrik Hornqvist, as occurred in Q1-Q3, but instead in Q4 when he most frequently shared the ice with Frank Vatrano and Aleksi Heponiemi, leading to Wennberg tallying ten points in his last 13 contests, and five in his final five. So Wennberg was thriving when he skated with less talented linemates, which is exactly what he'll be called upon to do now with the Kraken.

So yes, McCann has had more recent success and is earmarked for the top line; but it's Wennberg who has the best prior full season point total between them and, more importantly, last season he was doing more with less, as will need to occur in Seattle. When the dust settles, look for Wennberg to sneak up and score at a higher rate than McCann.

3) Adam Fox will not finish in the top ten in defensemen scoring

Although Fox was always highly regarded, no one was expecting him to have a sophomore season the likes of which he did, tallying five more points than his rookie campaign despite skating in 15 fewer contests and finishing second in defensemen points – plus winning the Norris Trophy – in the process. Naturally the view is he's arrived as a fantasy stud, and should provide poolies with much the same (if not better) output in 2021-22 and for many seasons to come, particularly playing for the high tempo Rangers and trying to up his value as an RFA for 2022. But lurking beneath his 70-point scoring pace from last season are numbers/metrics that scream unsustainable.

For one, Fox had 23 PPPts in just 55 games, for an 82 game pace of 35 PPPts. To put that in perspective, from 2010-11 through 2018-19, there were a total of just two instances of defensemen who had over 33 PPPts in a season. Also, that meant Fox had a PPPt on a remarkable 62% of New York's 37 total PPGs. That high of a percentage would be well above average if Fox were a forward. For a defenseman, it's stratospheric. It also came when Mika Zibanejad had barely half as many PPPts as he did in 2019-20 despite playing in one more game. A lot of PPPts earmarked for Zibs instead fell into Fox's lap, which is unlikely to recur.

One reason Fox won the Norris Trophy for 2020-21 is he did what he did despite taking the ice for over 50% of his team's shorthanded minutes and sporting an OZ% of 47.8%. While indeed those metrics make him a superbly well-rounded defenseman in real life, they definitely cut against him scoring as much as he did. There's also the fact Fox accumulated his 47 points in just 30 total games, with the other three d-men who also had points in that many contests averaging 41.3 points, suggesting Fox lucked into several more multipoint games than he was due to have.

Fox also managed to score at a 0.85+ points per game rate in his second season, with only two other instances of d-men since 1990-91 having done so. But the average SOG per game from those two was 2.61, or nearly 50% more than Fox's 1.85. In fact, of the 77 other instances of a d-man scoring at a 0.85+ points per game rate dating back to 1990-91, just one had fewer SOG per game than Fox did in 2020-21. What, then, is more typical from rearguards who, like Fox, are not high-volume shooters? Far fewer points, as there were only 30 instances in 30 seasons of d-men who scored at even a 54+ point full season pace while shooting at that low of a volume, with only four of those coming in the last decade.

Lastly, Fox will have the burden of his 2020-21 accomplishments weighing on him, plus he plays under the glare of New York, which might be a lot for someone who doesn't turn 24 until February. Look no further than what happened to Carter Hart in his third season after a superb sophomore campaign. In other words, it's one thing to have a huge breakout season, but another to replicate it once all eyes are on you and expectations are sky high. So those of you in one-year leagues, be careful about overpaying for Fox, while poolies in keepers maybe you don't consider him as untouchable as you might have.

4) Patrik Laine will average under 0.30 goals per game (i.e., tally 24 or fewer goals in 82 games)

In his first four seasons – occurring at ages 18, 19, 20 and 21 – Laine had a cumulative total of 128 goals and 916 SOG. If that sounds impressive, it is, as those two thresholds were both met or surpassed by only five other age 18-21 forwards in the entire history of the NHL: Wayne Gretzky, Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Dale Hawerchuk and……..Bobby Carpenter. Four of the five became major stars; but could Laine end up the second coming of Carpenter, who went on to never again top 56 points after his age-21 season?

Three of Laine's seasons have seen him produce solid to superb numbers. What did they all have in common? He had a top tier center feeding him the puck in Mark Scheifele. In his two seasons where he fell short of expectations, i.e., 2018-19 and 2020-21, his primary centers were, respectively, Bryan Little and Jack Roslovic? Coincidence? I think not. Although Columbus landed Jakub Voracek this offseason, who's a great playmaker, the team failed to upgrade at the center position. Plus, Voracek is now 32 years old and coming off two straight seasons of lower ice time and PP production, so it's not clear whether he'll shine if pressed back into heavy duty.

Laine is on a one-year deal for 2021-22, and thus has every incentive to play his heart out to ensure his next contract is a rich one. But I question if he can produce. Plus, as we saw last season – when he was also playing for a new contract – Laine wasn't above checking out when things weren't going his way. To me, this has the signs of a yet another disappointing fantasy season waiting to happen, and, in turn, an indication that Laine's once very bright fantasy fire is being extinguished, perhaps for good.

5) The GAA for the New York Islanders, as a team, will be below 2.00 (i.e., the Islanders will allow an average of fewer than two goals per game)

To put this in context, a team has allowed fewer than two goals per game over the course of an entire 82 -game season exactly once (St. Louis in 2011-12) since 2000-01. But Barry Trotz and Mitch Korn have the tandem of Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin working like finely tuned machines. Moreover, the Isles kept Adam Pelech, a top-tier shutdown d-man, and Casey Cizikas, a great checking center. And after the team had a GAA of 2.72 and 2.78 in Trotz's first two seasons, it dropped to 2.33 in 2020-21; so all it would take is to be reduced yet again by a similar amount to get below 2.00 for 2021-22.

What's also key for this forecast is division rivals Washington and Pittsburgh have core forwards who are aging, and therefore are due to slow and/or are more prone to injury, either or both of which would make it easier on the Islander goalie tandem. Plus, on paper, none of the other teams in the division made offseason moves which should bolster their offenses significantly. Things also are poised for the Isles to switch to make Sorokin the 1A, as his 2020-21 SV% on one day of rest was .974 and two days rest was .940, whereas Varlamov's was .942 with three days rest and .948 with four or more days rest.

Let's also consider that both goalies were playing superbly when 2020-21 ended, with Sorokin having allowed two or fewer goals in eight of his last ten games, including one or fewer in three of his last four. And Varlamov was right there with him, with four shutouts in his last ten starts and allowing two or fewer goals in three of the other six contests. Whether or not Trotz continues to go with a time-share for his tandem, the result could very well be under two goals allowed per game.

6) Steven Stamkos will have more points on the Power Play than at Even Strength

When Nikita Kucherov returned for the 2021 playoffs, one of the biggest questions was who would win the line lottery and play alongside him. In the end the answer was…….not Stamkos. Poolies remember 2018-19 when Stamkos, Kucherov and Brayden Point formed arguably NHL's best trio and Tampa was the heavy favorite to win the Stanley Cup. But they were dispatched in round one of the playoffs, and, since then, when Kucherov has played it's not been with Stamkos at ES, with two Cups being the result. So chances are they stick with what's been working, meaning no Stamkos and Kuch together at ES.

What does this mean in terms of Stamkos' likely production for 2021-22? Troubling signs were there already in 2020-21, as his scoring rate of 73 points was not only his lowest in five seasons but the first time it was below 90 points in that time frame. Moreover, his SOG per game rate of 2.4 was his lowest since he was a rookie. Where Stamkos didn't stumble, however, was on the man advantage, where he tallied 15 of his 38 total points during the 2020-21 regular season. And when Kucherov returned for the playoffs, Stamkos was still a PP1 staple, producing a very impressive 12 PPPts in a mere 23 games. But Stamkos only had eight other playoff points, and I think that's a preview of things to come, as Tampa won't mess with what isn't broken, leaving Stamkos on PP1 but lining up, at even strength, with the likes of Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn. A pretty good line overall, but no Kucherov or Point in sight.

Those of you who own Stamkos should prepare for a season in which he might tally 35+ PPPts yet still not hit 70 total points. And lest you think this is not a fearless forecast given what we already saw from Stamkos in the playoffs, consider that in the last ten full seasons, only twice did any forward have more PPPts than ES points, and in both instances (Nicklas Backstrom in 2013-14 and Claude Giroux in 2014-15) the players were pass first types, not a sniper like Stamkos.

7) Juuse Saros will win 40+ games

For perspective, in 2018-19, i.e., the last NHL full season, not a single goalie won 40 games. And beyond that, Saros has never even once started more than 40 games in any of his seasons. Why, then, do I see this happening?

While it's probably not too difficult to remember Saros ended 2020-21 on a roll, with two or fewer goals allowed in 14 of his last 20 games, what might be forgotten is he started a jaw-dropping 26 of his team's final 28 contests. And that was in a season with a condensed schedule. That type of workload hasn't been seen since the days of Braden Holtby and Henrik Lundqvist starting 70+ games in a campaign. Am I saying Saros will start 70+ games in 2021-22? Almost assuredly not; however, he signed a nice extension and the Preds have David Rittich as a back-up, who's no threat to being even a 1B. Look for Saros to be at or near the top of the league in starts and, with that, wins as well.

8) Jason Robertson won't be one of the top five scoring forwards, per game, on the Stars

Basically what I'm saying is Robertson will be outpointed, on a per game basis, by Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Alexander Radulov. Heck – if he gets the right deployment, even Denis Gurianov is a candidate to do so as well. Why am I bearish on Robertson? For one, he benefitted tremendously from an offensive zone starting percentage of 65% last season, which has nowhere to go but down. But most significantly, I think he's destined for PP2, as I can't see a how he supplants four of those five guys for a PP1 spot. Why does that matter? Because you need PPPts to be a top scorer. Last season Robertson had six in 51 games. Looking at the 818 instances of forwards who, like Robertson and dating back to the 2000-01 season, scored at a 0.85 points per game or higher rate, a total of one – yes just one! – had a worse rate of PPPts per game, which was Conor Sheary in 2015-16, and as we all know he's never had another season even remotely as good as that one.

And let's look at some other comparables while we're at it, in this case fellow age 21+ rookies who, also dating back to 2000-01, had a scoring rate between 0.85 and 0.90. We get two – Bobby Ryan and Colby Armstrong. Much like Sheary, Armstrong was out of the fantasy spotlight as quickly as he entered it. As for Ryan, he actually had a moderately better sophomore season; but he was a top line staple on the PP and at ES, which is not something likely to occur with Robertson. Am I saying Robertson lacks talent? No; however, many a player has been plagued by a sophomore slump, and his deployment likely won't do him any huge favors. He's high on my list of players destined to disappoint for 2021-22.

9) Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale will combine to score 115+ points

Anaheim was a very bad team last season. Historically bad? Not quite. But really, really bad. For one, their power play conversation percentage was 8.9%. If that sounds low that's because it is, so low in fact that no team fared worse dating back to at least 1990-91! Their 2.21 goals per game rate wasn't much better, ranking as the 23rd worst of 856 single season rates among NHL teams since 1990-91.

But hope does seem to be on the horizon. Zegras is still only 20 and has just 24 NHL games to his credit; but he was impactful in those games, particularly as the season was ending, during which he had point per game scoring in his last eight contests, firing 28 SOG in his last nine despite ice times which were less than 18:10 in all but one game. Anaheim likely knows they have something in Zegras, who, after all, was drafted with the ninth overall pick in 2019; and the team should gladly hand the reins to him to center its top unit at ES and on the PP starting this season.

On the blue line, Drysdale is also a good bet to be impactful. Only 19 now, he suited up for 24 NHL games in 2020-21, his draft season, playing a respectable 19:34 per contest and scoring at a 27-point pace. In Drysdale's case, where optimism lies is in his ice times, as his PP time per game nearly doubled from Q3 to Q4 plus in Q4 he took the ice for three minutes more per contest versus Q3. Moreover, he wasn't being sheltered as a rookie, as his OZ% was below 50%, although that likely also was significantly influenced by how poorly the team around him was playing.

Poolies often assume bad teams will have no fantasy-worthy players. And although usually it is true they have comparatively fewer than top squads, someone on bad teams has to score, and I think for the 2021-22 season Zegras and Drysdale will be their major point getters, combining for 115+ when all is said and done.

10) Josh Norris will score 75+ points

After several years of struggles, rays of hope are starting to emerge in Ottawa, with a crop of skaters having already started to get their feet wet in the NHL and likely to progress with each passing season. And although conventional wisdom would figure these youngsters will improve gradually and make the leap into elite territory at or near the usual 200 career games mark that coincides with a forward's breakout threshold, I'm thinking Josh Norris will be much better much sooner. Why? Three reasons.

First, despite only tallying 35 points, Norris had at least one point in 30 separate games, and the average point total for the other forwards who also had points in 30 games last season was 43, or eight more than Norris's 35, which would have led to Norris having a scoring pace of 63 points rather than 51. And lest poolies think Norris can only be a steady Eddie, incapable of big games, three of his five multipoint games for the entire season came in his final 13 contests. Coupling some more multipoint games with his already established consistency should lead to his point total jumping. Second is his PP acumen. Norris finished tied for 41st among all forwards in PPPts – with 14 – despite taking the ice for the 71st most PP minutes. Moreover, Ottawa had a mere 27 PPPts in 2020-21, meaning Norris factored in more than half of all his team's total PPGs. If he can keep that up, all it will take is Ottawa to see minor gains in man advantage scoring for his PPPt total to rise. Third, Norris' production was better than it seemed, as he finished with 16 points in 18 games, which already was a 73-point pace. So if you have a chance to grab Norris in a one-year league or keeper, do yourself a favor and make it happen.

11) Despite the 2021-22 season being 26 games longer, MacKenzie Weegar will score fewer total points than he did in 2020-21

This might not seem like a fearless forecast, but it is if we crunch numbers. Assuming Weegar plays all 82 games, his scoring pace would need to drop by 37%, as his rate for 2020-21 in accumulating 36 points in 54 games was 0.67 points per game, while to get 35 in 82 contests it would need to fall to 0.42.

As for Weegar's 2020-21, he was one of the season's come from nowhere stories. Yes, his scoring rate has risen each season of his career and his offensive opportunities could increase with the departure of Keith Yandle, who gobbled up huge PP minutes and had favorable deployment; but none of that matters when it comes to Weegar, who screams one-hit wonder. Keep in mind, it was the absence of Aaron Ekblad that allowed Weegar to explode, as in the 19 contests Ekblad missed at end of 2020-21 Weegar tallied 17 of his 36 points, meaning he had 19 points in his other 37, for barely a point per every other game pace. Plus, when Ekblad and Yandle were both healthy they were each on PP1. When Ekblad was hurt, however, Weegar barely sniffed any PP time, let alone any on the top unit, finishing with a PPPt rate that would've projected to be 4.5 PPPts in a full 82 game season.

Why does that matter so much? Defensemen require PP time – and PPPts – to be top scorers. Need proof? Of the 106 instances of a rearguard scoring 55 points – which was Weegar’s 82-game pace in 2020-21 – in a season dating to 2000-01, the lowest PPPt total was 12. In fact, if we lower the point threshold to only 50, we get 182 instances yet still none had fewer than 12 PPPts. What if we lower it to 45 points? We get a total of 290 instances, with a grand total of one having fewer than nine PPPts, or still double what Weegar would've likely received if 2020-21 had been 82 games.

If you want an idea of what Weegar really is, look no further than Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who never had a strong fantasy season until the stars magically aligned in 2015-16, also at age 27, to see him score at a 48-point rate. And like Weegar, Vlasic's magical season represented the third in a row of increased point totals. Did Vlasic parlay that output into big numbers going forward? Nope. He went back to the player he always had been, scoring in the 25-30 point range. And just like what ultimately happened to Vlasic, Weegar will come back to earth with a crashing thud, finishing with fewer total points in 2021-22 than 2020-21 even if he plays all 82 contests, or 28 more games than he logged in 2020-21.

12) Unless one of them starts 55+ games, neither Petr Mrazek nor Jack Campbell will win 20 games

Leafs fans, you have my sympathies for what the team has put you through, especially in recent years. But for those of you who think this could be the season where things all fall into place, I hate to tell you that probably won't be happening, at least not with their current goalie tandem.

Let's start with Campbell. It looks like the former 11th overall pick has figured things out, with a SV% of .921+ and GAA of 2.30 or less in two of the last three seasons. But he had a SV% less than .900 in half his last 14 games of 2020-21. The Leafs also ranked 6th last season in fewest shots allowed, and in the last five games where they allowed 29+ SOG and Campbell was in net, he gave up 14 goals. Then there's Mrazek, who fared well in 2020-21, yet in just 12 contests; so that data is essentially meaningless. In his prior four seasons, however, only once did Mrazek have more quality starts than not, with his SV% being 0.905 or less in three of the four, and with a negative goals saved above average in each of those three.

We also can't overlook the intense, 82-game spotlight under which these goalies will be for the first time during their careers by virtue of playing in the hockey hotbed that is Toronto. Yes, it's true Campbell was essentially the starter for Toronto for the bulk of last season, so this isn't truly uncharted territory for him; however, it wasn't a traditional 82-game campaign and expectations were not sky high, as they will be now. And Mrazek has played the last three seasons of his career in Carolina, where hockey is not even close to the focal point as it is in Toronto. And while yes, Mrazek did play in Detroit, he was mainly the back-up then. The intense pressure, second-guessing, and intensity that comes with the territory in Toronto has wreaked havoc on many a netminder, with Frederick Andersen the most recent victim.

So does this mean Toronto won't win 40 games? If they stick with these two, then yes, that is my belief. What I think ultimately will happen though is the team grows disillusioned with both, and makes a move at the deadline to acquire a more battle tested goalie, letting Campbell walk as a UFA after this season and relegating Mrazek to being a $3.8M back-up.

13) Alex DeBrincat will outpoint Patrick Kane on a per game basis

Yes, when I covered Kane in a Goldipucks column I said his 2020-21 scoring rate was "just right;" but I've thought about it more since I first wrote the piece and now I believe his lack of goal scoring this past season was less a function of low personal shooting percentage than simply about him starting to lose explosiveness. Or to put it another way, if someone who's 32 years old and has played – between the regular season and playoffs – over 1150 games suddenly goes from his two best SOG rates of his career to a mark that's lower than any season dating back to 2014-15, and, at the same time, also sees his SH% crater, warning bells start to go off.

Meanwhile, DeBrincat hit his breakout threshold in 2020-21 and responded with a career-best 88-point scoring rate. Yes, his SH% was above 20%, so most would assume he'll see his scoring drop. But let's not forget he had a SH% of 18.6% in 2018-19, so he's shown a demonstrated ability to shoot the puck a lot, but also accurately.

Plus, going back to 1990-91, there were three other wingers who, like DeBrincat in 2020-21, had a season of .60+ goals per game rate while also sporting a shooting percentage of 20.0%+ while age 23 or younger – Alexander Mogilny, Keith Tkachuk and Theoren Fleury. That's some pretty fine company in which to find oneself! And looking at their numbers, Debrincat still has realistic room to shoot even more, as the average SOG for the three was 3.70 in their applicable season, or nearly one SOG above DeBrincat's 2.98. Beyond that, DeBrincat had 18 PPPts in 52 games, which is a quite good rate of 0.34 per game; but the average for those three in the season where they hit the thresholds was 0.52 per game, or 50% higher than Debrincat's output. So wherein Kane is likely in the midst of finally slowing due to age, the result could be points – especially goals – that used to be his, turning instead into goals/assists for DeBrincat, leading to DeBrincat outpointing Kane on a per game basis.

14) Shayne Gostisbehere will score more points, on a per game basis, than any Flyer defenseman

When the dust settled on summer moves, no question the Flyers defense was improved as compared to last season, adding Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan Ellis and Keith Yandle while losing Ghost, plus two lesser rearguards in Philippe Myers and Robert Hagg. But between the three they added, and incumbents Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim, I think there will be a "too many cooks" issue where all of them will do okay, but none will shine.

Let's figure each of the five Flyer rearguards tallies at least 25 points, which is not unrealistic on paper. The last two times 5+ d-men on one team each scored 25+ points were Ottawa in 2007-08 and Colorado in 2002-03; and guess what, for the Sens no rearguard had more than 38 points that same season while the top d-man for the Avs in 2002-03 had 48, underscoring that there are indeed only so many points to go around when it comes to defensemen. Moreover, Keith Yandle's only ostensible reason for being in Philly is to QB PP1, whereby he likely won't get many other points (in 2020-21 18 of his 27 came with the man advantage) but also such that the others will have fewer PPPts.

Then there's Ghost, whose scoring rate went from 67 points in 2017-18 to 39 in 2018-19 then to 23 in 2019-20, while also shedding a SOG per game. Last season he still was below a point per every other game but finished with 12 points in his last 19 contests. Plus, although Jakob Chychrun is clearly "the guy" when it comes to the blueline in Arizona, the team wouldn't have brought in Ghost if it didn't have a plan to deploy him in a manner most likely to result in success, i.e., ample PP time and high OZ%. Yes, Arizona is in full tank mode, having traded away Conor Garland and Christian Dvorak for no immediate help; but they shouldn't be that much worse than 2020-21, during which they only had ten fewer goals than Philly. Plus, with less talent up front, Coyote rearguards will be looked upon more so than ever for offense, ala what happened in Nashville in 2019-20. In the end I prefer Ghost's odds to produce in an environment with just one other rearguard scoring threat and less forward talent to Philly's logjam on the blueline and far better forward corps.

15) At least one of Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid will have an individual Power Play Point total higher than the total number of Power Play Goals scored by any of the other 30 NHL teams

How many PPGs does a top team score? Perhaps fewer than one would think, as if we look at the last three full seasons, a total of only ten teams amassed 60+. Then again, 60 PPPts for a player would be a lot; in fact, only one time since 1995-96 has someone (Sidney Crosby in 2006-07) tallied over 60, and he had just 61. So why do I think Kuch and/or McDavid can do what seems to be the impossible? Because just like my correct Forecast last season for Auston Matthews to become only the third center in NHL history to average .75 goals per game, the signs seem to be pointed toward this being achievable.

Yes, Kucherov, despite all his career success, has only once tallied more than 36 PPPts in a season, and that saw him amass 48; but he had a scintillating 19 PPPts in 23 playoff games in 2021, which, projected to a full campaign, would be 67. And that was after he'd been on the shelf for the entire regular season. Plus, although Tampa lost Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gourde this offseason, neither was a factor on PP1, meaning all of Tampa's potent first unit remains intact. As for McDavid, he's seen his scoring pace rise every season of his still young career; and in each of the last two campaigns he had a PPPt pace in the mid-50s. Moreover, in Edmonton the top PP unit from last season is likewise unchanged, plus McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all are in their primes.

Let's also not forget Tampa Bay will play ten of its 82 games this season against the likes of the Sabres, Senators and Red Wings, which is the same number of games in which the Oilers will square off against LA, San Jose and Anaheim. Facing those teams that often should allow these two to pile on the points, including on the PP.

To be clear: the prediction is either individually has a power-play point total higher than the total PP goals scored by each of the other 30 teams.

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If you think the fun is over now that you've finished reading the 15 Fearless Forecasts, you're mistaken, as you get to vote on which Forecasts you think will actually happen, plus, if you're so inclined, add your own Forecasts. Here is the link to a Forum Thread where you can do both!

Next week it'll be back to Roos Lets Loose content as per usual, with an edition of Forum Buzz. Looking ahead, my monthly mailbag column is just a few weeks away, so be sure to send your fantasy hockey question(s) to me for in depth, deep dive answers. You can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) send them to me via email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.