Every year, the Dobber team puts together its preseason predictions in a Panel format. We go over, individual trophies, conference champions, the Cup winner, and more. We do this not only to get our thoughts out into the universe one last time before the season starts, but to help the reader. Aggregate opinions are almost always better than solitary ones, so getting the panel to weigh in can help the reader a lot.

The issue is it doesn't leave room for explanation. We just throw out some names and move along. Well, I want to talk about some of my selections and seeing as the season starts tonight, it's my last chance to do so.

Anyone that missed the Dobber Preseason Panel can view it here. These are my thoughts.

Hart and Art Ross Trophy

Until further notice, I'm not sure why we're selecting anyone else for either trophy. I get that there are going to be lots of seasons he doesn't win; McDavid isn't winning the next 10 straight Hart Trophies. (Probably.) But no one else is on his level and he's the favourite every single season. Same goes for fantasy hockey: you might be able to make a case for other players at first overall, and McDavid won't be the most valuable fantasy player every year, but it feels galaxy brain-y to not take him. The way I look at it is this: If I was given equal odds on every player to win the Hart, who would I take? It's McDavid, and it's not even close.

I do get the other selection. If the Avalanche win the Presidents' Trophy and MacKinnon puts up 43 goals and 113 points, then yeah, he'll absolutely be in the running. And we've also seen writers talk themselves out of McDavid for the Hart in years gone by, so these things happen. There could also be a version of Kucherov who repeats his performance of a couple years ago, Pastrnak or Matthews going nuclear and scoring 60, or Hellebuyck carrying the Jets. All this being said, I think it's McDavid, and I really didn't need this many words to say so.

Rocket Richard

The closer we get to the season, the less certain I feel about Matthews winning the Richard. He didn't participate much in preseason line work, no games, and he's still going as a top-5 pick in fantasy. What keeps my optimism afloat is the fact that Matthews was obviously playing injured last year, and scored 18 goals in his final 20 regular season games, landing over 4.5 shots per game on net. If that's what he does with an injured wrist, what does he do with a rested one?

This is, of course, a more contentious category. David Pastrnak is a perennial 50-goal threat, Alex Ovechkin is injured but is still lurking, Nathan MacKinnon has the shot volume to get there someday. All this said, Matthews is averaging 54 goals/82 games over the last three seasons. If he can stay on the ice for 80 games, I think we see his first 50-goal season and another Richard Trophy.

My hope for Matthews this season is the power play. The power play, considering the talent the Leafs have, has left something to be desired for most of the last three years. Pastrnak had 20 PP goals a couple years ago. Ovechkin had between 15-25 for years until recent shortened seasons. Matthews has never had more than 12 PPGs in a season. If that power play can right itself – and they have a new PP coach for the year – and it can reach the levels of Boston and Washington? Matthews could add 10 PP goals to his typical season's tally. I think we're going to see a career year this season.

*Note: I wrote this, and then late in the afternoon, saw this tweet:

Keefe says Matthews is not available to play this week.

— David Alter (@dalter) October 11, 2021

That is concerning. He will still be elite this year, but I could see them really being careful with games and minutes, at least when he initially returns.

Norris

For the Norris Trophy, I was looking for three things:

• A defensively-responsible player who will eat a lot of minutes
• A high point total
• A good team

That narrows us down to a handful of picks and I'll piggyback off Adam Fox's historic win and say Charlie McAvoy is the Norris winner in 2022.

I'm of the belief that whenever Cale Makar puts together a 75-game season, he'll be in the running for the Norris. Quite honestly, had the Bruins gone with Matt Grzelcyk with their PP1 role, I would not have taken McAvoy. But with those PP1 minutes, he'll easily push past a 50-point pace, giving us the point totals we're looking for.

Besides that, McAvoy plays PK and was at 24 minutes a game last year. He should be closer to 25 minutes this year, and that gives us our high level of TOI we're looking for.

I will talk about Boston a bit more later, but I have them as winning their division. That would give us the good team we're looking for.

As mentioned, other guys fit this bill: Aaron Ekblad, Victor Hedman, Adam Fox, and Alex Pietrangelo, to name a few. This was a case where I didn't see a real clear front-runner outside of likely Makar, and he was the other guy I was considering. I think McAvoy has a reputation for being better defensively than Makar and that'll help with the voting.

I don't think there are many wrong answers here. We'll see who's right in nine months!

Vezina

The Winnipeg blue line looks much improved from last year. They added Nate Schmidt from Vancouver, who can easily play good second-pair minutes. The same can be said for addition Brenden Dillon, and having two legitimate second-pair defencemen isn't something the Jets have often had since Dustin Byfuglien's retirement and Jacob Trouba's trade.

Now, the team has the two mentioned, plus Josh Morrissey, plus Neal Pionk. While it's not an elite blue line, it's better than they've had anytime recently. What can Connor Hellebuyck do with an actual NHL blue line in front of him? We're going to find out.

There are a lot of good selections here. Igor Shesterkin was the other guy I was thinking about. I think he gets 55-60 starts this year as the Rangers finally round into their contender status. That is why I have them winning their division, and likely on the back of a great Shesterkin performance. It would not surprise me in the least to see him take the Vezina this year. There is a non-zero chance he's actually the best goalie in the world.

Of course, Andrei Vaslievskiy never makes a bad choice, either. Though Tampa lost a lot of depth, they always seem to churn out more good depth. If that team doesn't take a big step back, he's in the mix as well.

Let me throw out a darkhorse: Jacob Markstrom. He'll be the sure-fire number-1 on a team in a weak division. I am on the record as saying Calgary will be better than recent seasons thanks to their new coach and I think they finish second in the division. That will be done largely thanks to a stellar season from Markstrom, I believe.

Calder

I mean, I get the push for Trevor Zegras, but this is Caufield's to lose. There is just too much in his favour.

To start with, we know Caufield was a generational scorer at every level up to the NHL. That puts him in the rarified Kessel/Kane category immediately. He then got to the NHL and put up eight goals and 78 shots in 30 games. Not elite, but it's a 20-goal, 200-shot pace as a rookie. He backed that up with good offensive micro stats. We have a 20-goal, 200-shot rookie who will be playing top line, top PP minutes and has one of the greatest scoring pedigrees we've ever seen. Yes, this is Caufield's to lose.

Zegras is in the mix, and I have to think Cole Sillinger is as well. The more I dug into Sillinger in the offseason, the more it seems a lot of teams missed the boat on him. His scoring pedigree is legitimately great and I think he's a future star in this league. That he's made the team out of camp is only a big boost here.

Those are my thoughts on the awards. I think Boston is deep enough to win their division, the Rangers take a step forward, while Vegas and Colorado remain the measuring stick out West. It's shaping up to be a great season.

Thanks to all the readers for sticking with us this last 18 months or so. We know it's been very difficult for many of you and that dollars and time are both spread thin these days. Whether it's reading these Ramblings, participating in the forums, or purchasing the Dobber Guide, we just want to say thanks. It sounds trite but the readers are the ones who keep this platform afloat. Without you, we're not here, so again, we appreciate sticking with us.

The hockey season is upon us, and with good fortune, we'll get a full 82-game season punctuated by an historic Olympics tournament. I can't wait.

*

One piece of news:

SEA claims Barre-Boulet

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) October 11, 2021

He wasn't impressive at the NHL level last year and he's leaving the best franchise in hockey. He should have plenty of more chances but he needs to start making good on them.

*

I should also mention the Devils sent Alexander Holtz to the AHL. He’ll be back, and likely this year, but they’re going to give him some development time first. They did keep Dawson Mercer around, though. Heads up, dynasty owners. Now is the time to get excited.

*

Seattle have all of McCann, Oleksiak, Wennberg, and Donskoi in COVID protocols. It doesn’t necessarily mean they have COVID, but they’re surely in doubt for opening night now.