Alex Ovechkin is already going to go down in history as one of the best goal scorers of all time. The only question is just where exactly on that list does he sit? After his two-goal premier and moving into fifth place all time, it seemed like time to take a look at where he stands in that race.

This is a bit of a departure from our usual fare here, but is finally an opportunity to talk about Ovechkin, which we almost never get to do.

So here is where things stand. After his two-goal, four-point night against the Rangers on Wednesday he is fifth in total goals scored with 732.

Wayne Gretzky – 894

Gordie Howe – 801

Jaromir Jagr – 766

Brett Hull – 741

Alex Ovechkin – 732

That leaves Great Eight (age 36) 162 goals behind the Great One. So. Can Ovechkin catch Gretzky?

Obviously we don't know the answer for sure, and a lot depends on how long Ovechkin can remain an elite goal scorer. He is 36, and if he were to only play four more years that would require him to score 40 goals a season. It seems like a pretty tall order. Playing into his 40s would obviously be a big help, but production is likely to fade pretty quickly at that point. First though, let's take a look at Ovi's recent goal scoring and see what we can learn.

And because this is Frozen Tools we are going to take a brief bird walk on process. The easiest way to access this data is actually from Ovechkin's player profile page. I started on his career numbers tab, copied three years' worth of data out in a spreadsheet, rearranged the columns, and added some per game numbers. That leaves us with the lovely chart below.

Season	GP	G	G/G	SOG	S%	SOG/G	PPG	PPG/G	PPTOI	%PP	TOI
2020-2021	45	24	0.53	182	13.2	4	9	0.200	4:13	92.6	19:30
2019-2020	68	48	0.71	311	15.4	4.6	13	0.191	4:53	90.7	20:40
2018-2019	81	51	0.63	338	15.1	4.2	18	0.222	4:25	90.5	20:55

I am using the data here to look at a few questions. The first question: Is his goal pace decreasing already? And the answer to that is not really, or hard to tell. His 0.53 goals per game was the lowest of the last three seasons, but it isn't like it has been a linear progression, and he has had seasons like this in the past as well. His shot pace is fine at four or more shots per game over the last three seasons. Again 2020-21 was the lowest of this sample, but in line with his last five season average of 4.18. He is also putting up right around the same goal pace on the power play, which is going to be very important for him going forward.

The second question: Is he becoming a less effective shooter? For that I want to check in on his shooting percentage, and again 2020-21 had the lowest of this sample, but still well within his expected range.

The third question: Is he still receiving the necessary opportunity? For Ovechkin we are looking at time on ice, and most importantly time on the power-play. His overall time on ice decreased about a minute from 2019-20, and almost a minute and a half from 2018-19. This is not ideal, though he still averaged 19:30 of total time on ice (which is a lot), and we have to expect as he gets older that time is going to continue to fall. What is good to see is that he actually saw the highest percentage of his team's total power-play time at 92.6 percent of the last three seasons. He is going to need this prime opportunity to keep up his goal pace, particularly as his even-strength ice time is likely to drop over the years.

(Incidentally, all of these data points are indications he should be a productive player for fantasy managers once again this season.)

So quick summary? His age-35 season looks pretty reasonable, and over a full 82-game season that goal pace would have put him right on track to catch Gretzky. The problem is going to be maintaining that pace as he gets older.

We will get to the age thing in a minute, but the pace question also brings up one of the biggest disappointments for Ovechkin: lost games. He was drafted in 2004, but because of the lockout did not enter the league until 2005. A total of 82 lost games. 2012-13 the season was shortened due to another lockout. Another 34 lost games. The 2019-20 season was shortened because of COVID-19. Another 10 lost games. The 2020-21 season was also shortened because of COVID. Another 26 lost games. All told 152 potential games, which if he had scored at roughly his career pace (as the lost games have been scattered throughout his career) we would be looking at an additional 93ish goals. Even assuming for injuries or a reduced goal pace, it would have put him in a much better position.

Ovechkin is Ovechkin and clearly a man unto himself, but do we have any evidence of players scoring goals late in their career?

The first obvious comparison is Jagr himself. He sits just above Ovechkin in the record books and played into his 40s, something Ovechkin will clearly need to emulate. Four seasons ago, Jagr's age 45 season was just 22 games where he only managed one goal. The good news though is that Jagr still managed to play 387 games and score 101 goals in his age 40+ seasons. That included a 24-goal and a 27-goal season.

There aren't a lot of other good age comparisons. Obviously, we could look at Gretzky, Howe, or Hull, but their careers ended in a much different era than we are currently playing in. Hull was the closest and essentially ended his career in 2003-04 at age 39 putting up 131 goals after his age 35 season.

The other source list for comparisons might be the Rocket Richard Trophy. That trophy has been in existence since the 1998-99 season (so should have players who have ended their careers more recently), but should probably be renamed the Alex Ovechkin Trophy. Since he entered the league in 2005, he has won the trophy nine times. Only three other players have won it more than once. Sidney Crosby (not a good comparison as he is on the same aging curve as Ovechkin), Pavel Bure, and Jarome Iginla. Neither are great comparisons either. Bure fell off dramatically after winning his second trophy at age 29. Iginla might be slightly better as he played longer. He won the trophy twice as well, and wrapped up his career at 39. He scored 109 goals after age 35.

It is unlikely that Ovechkin has four straight 40-goal seasons left in him. Looking at Jagr and Iginla as examples though, it seems a bit more reasonable that as an elite goal scorer he could put up another 100-120 goals by age 40 (as Iginla did). That would just leave 60ish goals if he can play long enough into his 40s (where Jagr had 101). Can he do it? Only time will tell.

If it were easy, it wouldn't be worth doing. So let's hope for health, a long career, and goals.

That's all for now. Stay safe out there.

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