Top 10 Way-Too-Early Observations
Tom Collins
2021-10-18
We’re less than a week into the season, but it’s never too early to have a look at who is getting opportunities and who is struggling early in the season.
It may seem utterly unfair to judge the players now. After all, we’re dealing with an extremely small sample size. Six teams have played just one game, and no one has reached even four games yet.
While nothing is carved in stone, this small sample might show the start of trends that will endure all season. Last year, for example, how long were you willing to wait on Carter Verhaeghe? If you didn’t pick him up shortly after his hot start, you missed out on a productive player who was more than likely available early on. On the flip side, the history of many fantasy leagues is littered with two-game studs that never did much after that small breakthrough.
Below are 10 takeaways from the first six days of action, and things can change quickly. Even if you don’t take any action yet, these are the types of things you should be keeping in mind.
10. Braden Holtby starting in Dallas
I know many fantasy general managers stayed away from Dallas goaltending just because there were too many options. The team already had Ben Bishop, Anton Khudobin and Jake Oettinger. It was a head-scratcher when they signed Holtby in the offseason. However, with Bishop injured, Holtby has started the first two games for Dallas and has looked good even though he is winless. He is still available in 70 per cent of Yahoo leagues but is a must pickup.
9. Jesperi Kotkaniemi on the top line, kind of
It’s been a bit of a weird start for the former Montreal Canadien and current Carolina Hurricane. Through two games, his ice time is down about two-and-a-half minutes a night from last year, and his power-play time has dropped more than a full minute per game. However, when he does get on the ice, his most frequent linemate is Sebastien Aho. With Kotkaniemi not producing (zero points, three shots, two hits and two blocked shots), it will be interesting to see how long the revenge offer sheet experiment lasts.
8. Jacob Peterson getting a shot
There are a lot of rookies that are getting plenty of ink early this season, but let’s focus on Peterson who is largely unnoticed. In a one-year league, you want to grab a rookie that is getting ice time and opportunity. Thanks to an upper-body injury to Jason Robertson, Peterson is the one getting a chance. After Sunday’s game against Ottawa, Peterson is third among rookie forwards in ice time per game. Peterson is playing with Roope Hintz and either Joe Pavelski or Alexander Radulov and has a goal.
7. Alex Chiasson on the top PP unit
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Chiasson is on a top power-play unit once again. Chiasson is one of those players that seem to get plenty of opportunities to produce on the power play. He was on the top unit in Edmonton for the past three seasons and had a total of 19 power-play goals and 35 power-play points. Now in Vancouver, he’s also on the top unit, where he has a power-play goal and two power-play points. I wouldn’t recommend picking him up off the waiver wire as he usually doesn’t contribute in other categories, but more importantly, this takes away the power-play time we all thought Conor Garland was going to get.
6. Jesse Puljujarvi not on the top PP unit
Two weeks ago, I wrote about how Puljujarvi would be a long shot to reach 70 points. This was mostly because of his hot finish last season and it looked like he would be on the top line with Connor McDavid during the current campaign. While the latter has come true, he isn’t getting top power-play time that would be needed, which is a disappointment. Instead, that spot is going to Zach Hyman, who had a power-play goal in the first game of the season.
5. Tyler Johnson experiment over
The Hawks turned heads in the preseason by putting Tyler Johnson instead of Kirby Dach on the top line alongside Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. That experiment lasted two games as he was pointless at even strength but had two power-play assists. On Saturday night, the winless Hawks shifted things around, demoting Johnson to the third line to play with Brandon Hagel and Henrik Borgstrom. That’s quite a drop in talented linemates. He’s still on the top unit, which probably won’t change as long as the power play keeps clicking.
4. Top-six forward Anthony Cirelli
This feels as if this has been overlooked, but Cirelli has quietly morphed into a top-six player this season. Last year, he was further down the lineup and Alex Killorn and Tyler Johnson were his most common linemates. This year, he’s mostly with Steven Stamkos and Killorn (90 per cent of Cirelli’s 5-on-5 shifts have been with those two). So far, he’s produced three points in three games to go along with two PIM, five shots, five hits and 19 faceoff wins. His ice time is up about 90 seconds a night, although his power-play time has decreased.
3. Oliver Ekman-Larsson resurgence
One of the fantasy’s most overrated players, OEL is experiencing a bit of a resurgence so far in Vancouver. In three games, he has a goal (on the power play), an assist, six PIM, 11 shots, eight hits and three blocked shots. Although his power-play usage will never get back to where it used to be as long as Quinn Hughes is healthy, OEL’s ice time has ballooned back to five seasons ago as he is averaging 24:31 per game.
2. Marc-Andre Fleury struggles
Fleury was on average the seventh goalie selected in Yahoo pools this offseason despite his move from the Knights to the Blackhawks. He’s posted all sorts of awful numbers (winless in two games with a 7.06 GAA and a .826 SV%). I don’t blame him, as the team in front of him has been super ugly. It may not seem fair to pick on Fleury, as other goalies have struggled this season, most notably Andrei Vasilevskiy. Except Vas is at least picking up wins. Fleury is giving you nothing so far.
1. Mike Smith dominates
Something that has been gaining traction lately has been the zero-goalie strategy in one-year drafts. The theory is that since goaltending is so volatile, you’re better off waiting until later in the draft to draft a netminder instead of taking one with a high pick. Anyone that employed that strategy and snagged Smith in the 11th round is laughing this early in the season. Smith, the 26th goaltender drafted in Yahoo pools, is 2-0 and has looked great so far with a 1.92 GAA and a 1.92 SV%. More importantly, he is the number one netminder on a team that doesn’t have anyone to push him to steal starts.