Ramblings: Kopitar, Dubois, Chychrun, Marner, and Farabee – October 25

Michael Clifford

2021-10-25

It is Monday, and Mondays are usually reserved for Dobber. He had some other things to take care of, so he'll return tomorrow, but you guys are stuck with me for today.

We are nearly two weeks into the season and of course, all the samples are still too small for concrete determinations. All the same, it doesn't mean there aren't players that are punching a bit above their weight. At the same time, there are players getting the short end of the stick whose production looks worse than their play right now.

Here are some players that I think are performing either well above or well below what is reasonable to expect moving forward. That should leave some buying or selling opportunities in the trade market. Most stats from Natural Stat Trick.

Anze Kopitar

It has been a superlative start to the season for the Los Angeles pivot, with nine points and 17 shots on goal in five games. Of course, sustaining a pace of that magnitude isn't possible for him, but how much pull back will there be? There are warning signs all over the place:

  • The team is shooting 12.9 percent with him on the ice. That is a career-best, having never been above 11.3 percent before. A drop in this regard of 20% would bring him in line with last year.
  • He is shooting over 35 percent, which is obviously going to decline, and likely more than half.
  • He has registered a point on every goal with him score on the ice, a 100% IPP, having never cracked 80% in any season.

That is all bad news. A 20% decline in on-ice goal rate brings his rate from 5.3 goals per 60 minutes to 4.2. That's still a great mark, but there's still more pullback to come, because he's not going to register a point on 100% of those goals.

The good news here is Los Angeles is, quite literally, generating a career-high in offence with Kopitar on the ice by any measure. By shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, and expected goals, the team is generating more this season when Kopitar is on the ice than any other full season of his career. While this level of production won't continue, if the team continues generating offence at career-high rates, and he's playing over 20 minutes a night, why trade him? Vegas, Minnesota, Nashville, Dallas, and St. Louis isn't exactly a cakewalk schedule so far, either.

I say hang on to him. He wasn't expensive in drafts and the early returns on him and Viktor Arvidsson on the top line have been great.

Pierre-Luc Dubois

This one has many more warning signs than Kopitar does. While I do believe Dubois is a top-6 player in the NHL, when Winnipeg is healthy, he's the clear 2C behind Scheifele. He had been getting some power-play time even with those guys in the lineup, which is good news. At the same time, the team isn't generating much with him on the ice so far this year, a little over a shot per game less than last year, and we know how that went.

It is tough to say what to do with Dubois. Realistically, he could play on the top PP unit, on the second line with Nikolaj Ehlers, and those are both great spots. Give him 18 minutes a night and he can cook in fantasy.

But his shot rates are way down, the team's shot rates are way down, and the scoring chances on the team side aren't pretty, either. He would have been even cheaper than Kopitar in drafts, so holding on is likely the right move. He just has too good a situation to move on from unless there's a lopsided trade to be made.

Joel Farabee

This is a situation where the early production from a player is over-shadowing what could really make him valuable. The six points and plus-8 rating are nice, and will come down, but doesn't have to be as scary as staring down The Slender Man.

One knock on Farabee, from my end, was that he wasn't a factor in the hits column. He had just 79 through his first 107 NHL games, playing 15 minutes a night. It was a question where he could put up a hit per game, and whether he needed a lot of ice time for it. Obviously the early ratios aren't reliable, but he does have six hits in four games. He had a couple stretches last year with similar hit rates, so we'll see how the next couple weeks go.

With all this said, the hits could be a big component of floating his value. Let's say he finishes the season with 30 goals and 60 points. That means 26 goals and 54 points over the next 78 games. That's not really a great year. But if he has 26 goals and 54 points with 95 hits, rather than 55 hits, it'll really help keep him valuable in multi-cat leagues.

Mitchell Marner

A lot of Leafs fans read this site, and write at this site. Which means when I get to write about them, I like to take digs. It's all in good fun, but that's not what this is about.

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The Leafs are just getting brutally unlucky. The team is last in shooting percentage in the league. That obviously won't persist, and I reckon it won't be long until they start scoring in bunches. That should include Marner and Matthews, the latter of whom missed training camp and has only played in half the team's games. He may have needed some time to catch up.

Regardless, as of today, Marner is registering a career-high shot rate of nearly 17 attempts per 60 minutes, and he's playing nearly 22 minutes a night. The team is also generating a lot of offence with him on the ice, as his on-ice shot-attempt rates and scoring chance rates are the highest of his career. You know what's not the highest of his career? His shooting percentage, which is zero. And the team's shooting percentage with him on the ice, which is 2.3%.

Don't let fandom or comedy blind you from what is obvious here: the Leafs are just going through a dry spell right now. They are 2-3-1 in that span. If this happens in the middle January, no one is talking about a 2-3-1 stretch. But it's the start of the season, and that gives an opportunity to trade for an elite producer who has had a bad six games. Ditto for Matthews but in three games.

Jakob Chychrun

My problem with drafting Chychrun this year was his team. I had Arizona as a bottom-3 offence in the league, and the start of the season has not been kind to them. They are winless in five games with just eight goals. Chychrun not only is pointless in the five games, but the team hasn't even scored a goal with him on the ice. His peripherals are great, his production is bad, and that sounds about right.

Of course this won't last and not much longer. But he never had a five-game pointless streak last year and Shayne Gostisbehere is running the top PP unit for now. It could be a nice time to buy low on him, as he'll at least give great peripherals. The question is the cost in the trade. A lot of people took Chychrun as a top-10 defenceman, so he's likely the anchor of their blue line. People aren't going to trade him for Jakub Voracek after five games. At the same time, I'm not sure I would want to give up someone like Nikolaj Ehlers for him, either.

This could be a headache all year so maybe owners just want to move on. The team is generating a five-year low in scoring chances with him on the ice. Maybe it gets better? Maybe it doesn't.

*

Boston hung on for a 4-3 win over San Jose as the Sharks scored a couple goals late to make it interesting. The big boys came alive for the Bruins as Brad Marchand (1+1), David Pastrnak (1+1), and Patrice Bergeron (0+2) all had two-point games. A literal big boy as the 6'4" Derek Forbort also had a goal and an assist.

That makes seven points in four games for Marchand, who is off to a marvelous start.

*

I want to make sure I get this in before I fall asleep watching this game (to no fault of its own) but Lucas Raymond (not Mason!) tallied his first career hat trick against Chicago on Sunday night. His goals might have been a bit lucky, but a couple of them were just hard work going to the net. Good things happen when you go to the front of the net, and that he’s doing it with confidence is an awesome thing to see.

With him and Moritz Seider looking so good for the Wings, this is exciting for hockey fans everywhere.

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