Ramblings: Kopitar, Dubois, Chychrun, Marner, and Farabee – October 25

Michael Clifford

2021-10-25

It is Monday, and Mondays are usually reserved for Dobber. He had some other things to take care of, so he'll return tomorrow, but you guys are stuck with me for today.

We are nearly two weeks into the season and of course, all the samples are still too small for concrete determinations. All the same, it doesn't mean there aren't players that are punching a bit above their weight. At the same time, there are players getting the short end of the stick whose production looks worse than their play right now.

Here are some players that I think are performing either well above or well below what is reasonable to expect moving forward. That should leave some buying or selling opportunities in the trade market. Most stats from Natural Stat Trick.

Anze Kopitar

It has been a superlative start to the season for the Los Angeles pivot, with nine points and 17 shots on goal in five games. Of course, sustaining a pace of that magnitude isn't possible for him, but how much pull back will there be? There are warning signs all over the place:

  • The team is shooting 12.9 percent with him on the ice. That is a career-best, having never been above 11.3 percent before. A drop in this regard of 20% would bring him in line with last year.
  • He is shooting over 35 percent, which is obviously going to decline, and likely more than half.
  • He has registered a point on every goal with him score on the ice, a 100% IPP, having never cracked 80% in any season.

That is all bad news. A 20% decline in on-ice goal rate brings his rate from 5.3 goals per 60 minutes to 4.2. That's still a great mark, but there's still more pullback to come, because he's not going to register a point on 100% of those goals.

The good news here is Los Angeles is, quite literally, generating a career-high in offence with Kopitar on the ice by any measure. By shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, and expected goals, the team is generating more this season when Kopitar is on the ice than any other full season of his career. While this level of production won't continue, if the team continues generating offence at career-high rates, and he's playing over 20 minutes a night, why trade him? Vegas, Minnesota, Nashville, Dallas, and St. Louis isn't exactly a cakew