This week we are going to focus on an unsustainable stat line that goes hand in hand with production. The one metric I will be focusing on is points per 60 minutes (pts/60). I'm not saying that other metrics like 5 on 5 shooting percentage, PDO, IPP and CF% aren't important, but I find that pts/60 is one of the best stats to determine what a player has produced (floor) and more importantly what they should produce (ceiling).

Combined with 5 on 5 S%, I find that I can easily see what players should turn it around or what players are bound to slow down. If I see a forward higher than 3 pts/60, I'm going to dig deeper and see what they have done before and if they don't have the back story to support it, I will be pretty skeptical that their success will continue at its current pace.

I'll use Bo Horvat as an example for what we can expect from a forward who has been in the league a few years. He has been incredibly consistent with his pts/60 over his career (never below 1.7 and never above 2.3, whether he was playing 12 minutes or 20 minutes per night. We know his floor (1.7) and we know his ceiling (2.3) at this point in his career because we know how many minutes per night he will be playing.

His floor over 82 games is 46 points and his ceiling is 63 points for a player who is in his prime at the age of 26.

Here is a snapshot of Connor McDavid's advanced stats from Dobber's Frozen Tools, who much like Gretzky in the 1980s is a level above his counterparts in most categories but has really started to stretch out in pts/60.

Starting with pts/60, Connor McDavid led all forwards last season with 5.1, followed by the next group at 4.0 to 4.2 consisting of Artemi Panarin, Leon Draisaitl, Brad Marchand and Nathan MacKinnon.

In 2019-20, McDavid was second in the league with 4.2 behind David Pastrnak at 4.3. In 2018-19 he was second in the league once again (tied with Brad Marchand, Steven Stamkos, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron) at 3.9 behind Nikita Kucherov at 4.7.

At the end of the day, the most productive forwards will be at best around 4 pts/60 with the point per game players coming in around 3.0 or better. 

Because defensemen typically get more ice time than forwards, last season's leaders were Cale Makar at 2.5 pts/60 followed by Tyson Barrie at 2.4 with Adam Fox, Shea Theodore and John Carlson next at 2.1, while seven others had 1.9 or more.

In 2019-20, John Carlson led the league with 2.6 pts/60 followed closely by rookie Cale Makar at 2.5 and Torey Krug and Tony DeAngelo at 2.4. Brent Burns led the league in 2018-19 at 2.4 when he posted 83 points in 82 games.

Over the past four seasons, the high mark was 2.6 pts/60 with the most productive defensemen above 2.0.

Here is how Cale Makar has looked in his short career to date:

If I were to own Makar in a hockey pool, I wouldn't be very concerned about his slow start this year as he is likely to get closer to 2.5 than not. Add in his low PDO, 5 on 5 S% and IPP and it is even more likely.

Here are some players in the Western Conference that have unusually high or low pts/60 (I didn't include all of them):

Troy Terry – Anaheim

It is not uncommon to see early production after five to ten games, which is not only unsustainable but will more than likely crater over 82 games.

Troy Terry is not going to score 5.4 pts/60 over 82 games and will more than likely revert to his career-high of 1.7.

Jakob Silfverberg – Anaheim

He has six points in his first six games with 3.6 pts/60. His career-high is 2.1/60 and is more than likely his ceiling.

Kevin Shattenkirk – Anaheim

He has a career-high of 2.1 pts/60 which he has done twice in his first 11 seasons. He is currently at 3.1.

Nick Schmaltz – Arizona

Schmaltz has been "insert nice word for horrible" with no points and a minus nine. In five seasons he has between 2.1 and 2.5 pts/60. Where do we think he ends up at the end of this season? I'm going to wager between 2.1 and 2.5.

Shayne Gostisbehere – Arizona

Gostisbehere had a great season in 2017-18 with 64 points in 78 games. His pts/60 were 2.3. He is at 2.5 after five games so far with Arizona, but he has produced between 0.9 and 2.1 the other seasons he has played. He is capable but unlikely to produce towards the top end of what he has done in Philadelphia, especially in Arizona.

Jakob Chychrun – Arizona

Chychrun didn't exceed 1.1 pts/60 in his first four seasons but exploded for 1.9/60 last year where he had 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games. The question remains, will his new threshold be 1.9 or will he revert to 1.1? The most likely answer is somewhere in between, but we do know his floor and ceiling now.

Sean Monahan – Calgary

His ice time is down to just over 15 minutes per game and his pts/60 is declining. Not a great combination for production. I think at this point we can throw his two outlier seasons of 3.3/60 and 2.8/60 and focus on the other six seasons between 1.7 and 2.4. At 15 minutes per game that puts his production between 35 and 49 points, which is really where he is at now.

Roope Hintz – Dallas

In his breakout year, last season where he had 43 points in 41 games his pts/60 was right up with the league leaders at 3.5 as he played about 18 minutes per game. Perhaps the Stars are being careful this season as he is only playing about 14 minutes per game and his pts/60 is currently at 0.8. He might not reach 3.5 again, but he did have 2.2 the season prior so we can rest assured he will rebound to a level somewhere between last season and the year before.

I'm just going to list the Edmonton Oilers and their pts/60 as they all should come down to normal levels (even McDavid):

Connor McDavid – 7.2 pts/60 (career-high 5.1)

Leon Draisaitl – 5.8 (career-high 4.1)

Jesse Puljujarvi – 5.7 (1.8)

Zack Kassian – 5.6 (2.2)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 4.1 (2.9)

Zach Hyman – 4.0 (2.4)

All of these players could exceed their career highs, but all of their current numbers should come down substantially.

Anze Kopitar – LA

Over the past 12 seasons, Kopitar has been between 2.0 and 3.0 pts/60 but this year he is at 5.3. At 34-years of age, it would be pretty incredible to have a career year after an already hall of fame career to this point. Chances are he reverts to somewhere in the 2s.

Jared McCann – Seattle

McCann has started well with six points in six games with the Kraken and had 3.6 pts/60 minutes. At first glance, this would seem unsustainable, but looking at last season with the Penguins he was at 3.2/60 while playing just over 14 minutes per game. This season with the Kraken he is averaging 16:50 per night and even if he reverts to 3.2/60 we might be looking at a 70-75 point year for him this season.

Jordan Kyrou – St. Louis

Kyrou had a good season last year with the Blues and ended up with 35 points in 55 games with 2.6 pts/60. This season he has come out guns blazing with eight points in four games and 8.4 pts/60. His ice time is unchanged from 14 minutes per night so the hope is that his pts/60 increases substantially to improve his production. If you look at players like Hintz and McCann breaking out last season, perhaps we can look at 3.2 to 3.5/60 for Kyrou this year. That works out to about 60 to 66 points this year with the floor at around 50.

Connor Garland – Vancouver

The angry little elf has had a great start to his time in Vancouver with eight points in his first six games with 4.6 pts/60. Last season in Arizona, he had 39 points in 49 games with 2.7/60. His ice time has been consistent with what he saw last year around 17 minutes per game so if we assume the Canucks are a little more offensive than the Coyotes and bump up Garland to about 3.0/60 we might see 60-70 points this year.

Kyle Connor – Winnipeg

Connor has had a hot start with six goals and nine points in his first five games which have been good enough for 5.0 pts/60. He has had between 2.5 and 2.9 pts/game over the past four seasons, so there is little reason to think that he will deviate much from those numbers. When you add in his overachieving teammates Pierre-Luc Dubois (3.9), Nate Schmidt (3.4), Paul Stastny (3.1), Neal Pionk (2.9) and Andrew Copp (2.8), it looks like there will be some reversion for the team overall.

There are quite a few more examples that weren't included. If you'd like me to look closer at any player let me know.

Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.