Ramblings: Shutouts for Campbell, Allen & Hart; Who to Watch on the Waiver Wire & More (Nov 3)

Alexander MacLean

2021-11-03

After Gary Bettman absolutely belly flopped in the NHL's press conference regarding the Chicago Blackhawks abuse scandal, there is another lawsuit being filed against current and former members of the Penguins.

It is horrific that these things have taken so long to be brought to light and taken seriously, but I hope that this really gets the ball rolling and makes it so that hockey culture doesn't continue to be somewhere that anything of this nature can propagate or fester. I'm very thankful for all the hard work that Rick Westhead, Katie Strang, and others are putting in to make this happen.

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It sounds as though Carey Price has received the help he needed from the NHL Player's Assistance Program. Great news for him, his family, the Habs, and lastly us as fantasy owners.

Jake Allen's value takes a significant hit, while the Canadiens' skater core may see a bit of a boost, as a world-caliber goalie can do wonders to the confidence of a team – even one struggling as much as Montreal is right now.

Allen did put up the shutout against Detroit last night though, saving all 22 shots he faced on route to Montreal's third victory of the season. They play the 3-2-2 Islanders who typically play in low-scoring games, and the infirm Golden Knights in their next two games, so in the short-term Allen should retain his value.

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To no one's surprise both Mo (Flow) Seider and Lucas Raymond played in game number 10 on the season, burning one of their ELC years. Keep an eye on the 40-game threshold that the Wings may limit them to as that would shorten the time before unrestricted free-agency. Odds are though that both will still play the full season unless the wheels really fall off.

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Tim Stutzle saw some time last night on RW alongside Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk. If he sticks in that spot then his floor for the year rises even higher. On the flip side of that move, it would hurt Drake Batherson's upside, though he should still be able to produce fairly well on line two, and his multi-category contributions will continue to be extremely valuable to fantasy owners.

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Both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner got in on the scoring against a depleted Vegas lineup. It's too late now to buy in on them, but if you're looking for a deeper/cheaper option to get a piece of their production, look into linemates Alexander Kerfoot and/or Michael Bunting.

Jack Campbell got back into the win column with a fairly easy shutout. He has been great this year aside from one or two minor blips, but if you're looking for saves then look elsewhere. The Leafs have done an excellent job suppressing shot volume to this point in the season.

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A visit from the Coyotes is exactly what Carter Hart ordered – he really needed the shutout game, and earned it with 29 saves. The Yotes through 10 games have put up more than one goal only four times. They make for the ideal team to stream goalies against whenever possible.

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Evgeny Svechnikov was up on the top line for the Jets last night with Kyle Connor and Pierre-Luc Dubois. If you're looking for a very short-term add, he could be your guy.

Connor Hellebuyck became a dad on Tuesday, so he wasn't available to start the game, giving Eric Comrie the rare start.

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Sean Monahan had just finished playing in his 600th career game, and then ends up down on the fourth line for the next one. In one of my leagues where we roster about 300 players, he has been traded once, and dropped by three different teams already. The name value keeps seeing someone add him, but the production is just atrocious right now. In a league where shots, hits, and blocks are counted, he's just an anchor. The scoring may turn around at some point, but don't expect it to drastically change anytime soon.

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The Stars' goaltending situation is possibly getting even more crowded, with Ben Bishop on the ice for practice yesterday morning. Still no timeline for his return, but it seems to be inching ever closer.

Tomas Harley made his NHL debut, recording one shot, two hits, one block, and 15 minutes in ice time. He should become a top-four mainstay for the Stars before long, and may make John Klingberg expendable in free agency this summer. Then again, it's tough to say they're going to want to move on from this:

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Cale Makar heads to the IR after tweaking something in the game against the Wild. He has to miss at least a week from the time of the injury, but really that's just a minimum of two games for the Avalanche, and Jared Bednar apparently doesn't seem to think it will be a long-term injury.

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I was scouring the waiver wire in one of my leagues on Monday looking to fill in the spot suddenly freed up by Cole Caufield's demotion, and after about 15 minutes still no one had jumped out. It's surprising, as usually I know exactly what I need, how I feel about players, and there's someone that stands out as the easy choice. However, this time I was stumped. It may just be that my group of GMs in this league is on the ball (it's a good group so I'm not surprised), but it also seems like there aren't a lot of middle-tier players that make for good streaming options. I wanted to dive into a few waiver options on Fantrax and Yahoo that are possibly available on your waiver wire, and whether you should be picking them up, or passing them over.

Adam Henrique (Fantrax – 29%, Yahoo – 30%)

Adam Henrique potted four goals and nine points through his first 10 games, so is he someone that shouldn't be sitting on the waiver wire much longer? Let me ask one more question: at this point in the 31-year-old's career of over 700 games, we should have a good handle on him continuing to be the 50-point player we expect, right? Surprisingly, the answer might be no. Henrique is seeing time with all the big guns on the Ducks (I know, it's a relative term), and is putting up a career high in shots per game because he is seeing a lot more offensive zone starts. The higher shot rate has him on pace for a 40-goal season, and that's even considering his shooting percentage is below his career average. The assist numbers however are a little inflated due to an extremely high secondary assist percentage, plus a high PDO. All that to say, if you're adding Henrique for some shots and a few goals, then that's great, but don't expect the assist numbers to keep him close to a point-per-game all season.

J.T. Compher (Fantrax – 46%, Yahoo – 27%)

Compher is also shooting much above his career volume norm, and he has actually continued where he left off last season, scoring once for every five shots he takes. At some point we are going to have to admit that he may score on a higher percentage of his shots than the average skater, but it is only a 56-game sample, and 20% is still too high. In the meantime, the 26-year-old is seeing over 19 minutes of ice time per game (up five minutes over last season), and half of that extra time is productive time with the man-advantage.

In the long-term, Compher may continue to ride some percentages and higher ice time to a career season of over 65 points, but it seems unlikely is luck will hold long enough to keep him at a point-per-game. For the short term though, he's someone that you may want to wait on, as he only has four total games this week and next, muting the effect of his volume stats. To top it off, he's a certified band-aid-boy, and that will certainly derail his production at some point.

Ivan Barbashev (Fantrax – 26%, Yahoo – 23%)

Finally seeing some time on a scoring line, Ivan Barbashev is responding by putting up some solid numbers. He too is shooting more, but he's still under two per game. If you own Barbashev, then take note that the Buy/Sell bars on his FrozenTools page are all red, and his production at this rate is unlikely to continue. Playing under 16 minutes per night, seeing very little power play time, and having a hugely inflated set of percentages is not the kind of player that you want to be adding from the wire, as the almost inevitably disappoint and spot producing as soon as they're on your roster.

Mikael Granlund (Fantrax – 37%, Yahoo – 12%)

Except for a secondary assist percentage that has doubled, Granlund's numbers have remained eerily similar to the ones he put up last season. As a result, if we take off half (three) of his assists, we have Granlund with two goals, three assists, and 13 shots through eight games. That's about what we should expect of him moving forward. He's still worth adding in some leagues, but in your average 12-team leagues, he's just a temporary streamer during the four-game weeks.

Cam Fowler (Fantrax – 50%, Yahoo – 27%)

Cam Fowler's sudden jump in production has to be the result of some high underlying percentages just like the rest of this group, right? Actually, his percentages are low if anything, his usage has been much heavier in the defensive zone, and his shot totals are the same as what he averaged over the last two seasons. What gives? Well, the fact that four of his seven points have come on the power play makes up for most of it. That powerplay is clicking along at 25%, which is a little high, but not outrageously. The forward core in front of him also has a few more weapons than previous years, which could account for some of the increase as well. One of the biggest positive indicators though is that four of his seven points are primary points, meaning Fowler himself is more directly involved in the offence. It could just be one of those years where everything comes together for Fowler to hit his upside of 55 points.

Gustav Forsling (Fantrax – 57%, Yahoo – 29%)

Another similarly owned defenceman in Forsling has seven points in nine games, but unlike Fowler there are red flags here that make him a hard sell. Unlike Fowler who only really has Jamie Drysdale to contend with, Forsling is behind both Aaron Ekblad and Mackenzie Weegar in terms of offensive opportunities. The biggest nails in the coffins for Forsling though is that he sees almost no power play time, and all of his seven assists were secondary points, meaning he's lucking into points just because he can move pucks up to the skilled forwards. That isn't something you want to count on continuing at the same rate as the season goes on, especially since it can lead to very streaky production.

Matt Duchene (Fantrax – 41%, Yahoo – 15%)

Duchene has struggled with the Predators ever since he first stepped on the ice for the team, but with the lower expectations, even a rebound to a 50+ point pace seems decent from him. He is seeing four more minutes of ice time per game on top of last year's total, and during those minutes he's being thrown out on the ice for all of the offensive opportunities he can handle. He has also been tied at the hip with Filip Forsberg, who is the most dangerous weapon the Preds have.

Looking at Duchene's career shooting percentage numbers we see a very strange trend, with him having never scored on less than 10% of his shots in a season before he joined the Preds, he has been under 10% every year since. If that ever reverts back to his earlier days, he will suddenly be very fantasy relevant. In the meantime it seems like the best we can hope for is a 55-60 point pace. He scored the overtime winner last night, in addition to an incredibly lucky assist when a shot bounced off of him and right onto the stick of Forsberg. Right now he’s getting the bounces to put him over a 60 point pace, but don’t expect that to carry on all season.

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Feel free to find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.

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