In this week's Eastern Edge: Duclair's hot; Petry's not.

Fortunes can change quickly in the NHL and one player on this list started on the fourth line for his team in the season opener. The other player is the cornerstone of his team's blue line, has four straight 40-point seasons, but is on pace for 12 points this year. Here are the cases of Anthony Duclair and Jeff Petry.

Anthony Duclair

The Panthers winger is off to a strong start this season with eight goals and four assists in his first 12 games. While there are reasons to be optimistic about his fantasy value this year, I think it goes without saying that his current point-per game pace is unsustainable. Before I rain on the parade, let's quickly cover some reasons for optimism.

First, Duclair has the luxury of playing beside Aleksander Barkov, one of the league's best centers. Barkov's two-way excellence allows him and his line mates to quickly turn defense into offense. At even strength, Barkov, Duclair, and Carter Verhaeghe control an impressive 61.5-percent of the shot-share. Not only do they outshoot and out-chance the opposition, they also capitalize on those opportunities, outscoring opponents 9 to 1 so far this year. In addition, although the sample size is small, Duclair seems to be seeing a greater role under interim head coach Andrew Brunette than he saw under former coach Joel Quenneville. In seven appearances under Quenneville, Duclair averaged just over 12 minutes per game. In contrast, he's seen over 16 minutes a night through five games under Brunette.

While the coaching change could mean an increased role for Duclair, he's still not seeing much time with the man advantage. There was only one game this season where Duclair saw significant power-play time and that was November 6^th against Carolina. He was on the ice for 49-percent of Florida's PP time against the Hurricanes (just over three minutes) and managed three power-play points. However, based on my understanding, the only reason he saw so much power-play time that game was because both Barkov and Sam Bennett were sidelined with injuries. Florida has an abundance of offensive talent, so it's difficult to imagine Duclair cracking the top unit when the team is healthy. That's an issue because Florida's top unit gets much more ice time than the second group. If you're just looking at his overall stats, you'll see that Duclair has three power-play points in 12 games this year. Now that you have more context, hopefully it's easier to see why he won't actually score the 20 power-play points he's currently on pace for. You'll also notice that Duclair has eight goals on 24 shots, meaning he's scored on 33-percent of his attempts. That kind of shooting percentage isn't sustainable over a full season, so it's highly unlikely he keeps scoring at this pace. 

Jeff Petry

Petry had the best offensive showing of his career last year with 42 points in 55 appearances – a 63-point pace. He's off to an incredibly slow start this season with just two assists in his first 13 outings. Sometimes a decline in production can be explained by a reduced role, but this isn't one of those times. He's seeing over 24 minutes of action a night and has been on the ice for 53-percent of Montreal's total power-play time this year. His individual struggles are partially explained by the whole team's offensive woes. Montreal currently has the second-worst offense in the league, averaging two goals per game. Their power-play sits 24^th in league standings, converting on just 13.6-percent of its chances.

A common complaint I've seen from Habs fans this year is that Petry fails to set up open teammates on the power play, opting instead for low quality shot attempts. According to Natural Stat Trick, of Petry's 14 shot attempts on the power play, only five have hit the net. In recent games, we've seen Petry relegated to the second PP unit while Chris Wideman skates with the top group. Although the sample size is small, I'd say Wideman has looked more competent on the power play than Petry this year. It's worth noting that 15 of Petry's 42 points last year came with the man advantage. He's certainly capable of producing on the power play, but some of his decision-making has been questionable this season. I've said this before, but I strongly believe that Montreal has all the pieces to ice an above-average power play. Hoffman is an elite shooter, Gallagher provides a solid net-front presence, and Suzuki has great playmaking vision but is also a strong shooting threat. Petry doesn't have to be 'the guy' on the power-play, he just has to complement his teammates and play to their strengths. While some of the onus is on Petry to figure that out, the coaching staff has to do a better job of reinforcing that message. 

As you can see from his overall production, Petry's struggles aren't limited to the power-play. Rather, I'd say that his even-strength struggles also extend to the power play. I think Petry's poor play this year may be explained by the absence of his usual defense partner Joel Edmundson, who hasn't played yet due to an injury. Edmundson and Petry have a high level of chemistry that allows Petry to take chances offensively and play based on instinct, so he doesn't have to think through every part of the game. Right now, I feel like Petry is overthinking things, trying too hard to fill the void left by Shea Weber – which may explain why he's overshooting on the power play? Once Edmundson returns, I think Petry's even-strength play will improve. From that point on, I expect a domino effect where Petry's confidence is restored and he's back on the power-play, making better decisions. A final point worth mentioning about Petry is that he's been a game-time decision a couple of times this year, which suggests he's dealing with a minor injury. I don't think that explains his poor play, but it's certainly a situation to monitor as there's less and less reason for a 33-year-old defenseman to play through injuries when his team has essentially fallen out of the playoff picture.