The beginning of the NHL season is always a fascinating time. So many players seem to do very unexpected things. A lot of them end up being flashes in the pan that get way overhyped, but some are actually much more representative of things to come. In this column we try to tackle some of those ideas to help managers figure out what is real and what is all a mirage. We are going to continue that trend this week with a little review of an often neglected, but highly impactful stat in small sample sizes: empty-net goals.

As per usual Frozen Tools has an excellent report for analyzing empty-net goals. It is titled Empty-Net Goals. The report includes total goals, shots, shooting percentage calculations and of course, empty-net goals. To review for the week, I exported (again to cut down/rearrange columns to make it fit into an article better) our data for the 20 and 21 seasons.

To set expectations a bit we are going to start with last season (our 2020-21 data).

One thing I notice right away is that we are not dealing with a huge number of goals here. Our league leaders were up at five goals apiece. There are 15 players who put up three, but this is generally our top list here.

I am also noticing that our top empty-netters are getting just about 18 percent of their total goal production from empty-net goals. The one exception is Vladislav Namestnikov who only scored eight goals all season, but five were into an empty net. Wild.

This table also includes our scorers' shooting percentage with and without the empty-net goals included (which will be helpful later).

What I hope is really clear here though is that our totals are very small. Over the course of a season, it sort of evens out (with the exception of Namestnikov apparently). Players don't score 20 empty-net goals, and typically those goals don't make up a huge percentage of their total output.

Those ideas are really important when looking at a smaller sample size like the start of a season.

Two things I notice right away here. Anthony Duclair and Andrei Svechnikov already have three empty-net goals. In about 15 games. That ties Svechnikov's total from 2020-21 and is only two less than the league leader from 2020-21 (in 53 games). The other thing I notice is that these empty net goals make up a huge percentage of these player's total output. It is about twice that of the larger sample size with an average here of about 38 percent.

If the shooting percentage column wasn't already enough to warn you, take heed. Most of these players have goal totals and goal paces that are far exceeding what they are typically capable of.

Barclay Goodrow and Sam Carrick are clearly the poster boys here, but I want to touch on Anthony Duclair. His three empty-net goals already, and his total 24.2 shooting percentage are wildly too high. But empty-net goals don't account for all of his success. Even without his empty-net goals he would still be shooting at 16.7 percent. That is up from his usual 12-ish percent. I love Duclair's deployment when he is on the top line in Florida, but just don't expect anything like this goal pace to continue.

Svechnikov is another one to be cautious about. His seven goals is clearly buoyed by fortunate opportunities with his opponent's goalie pulled. The good news is that even without those three goals (which would normalize his shooting percentage) he would still be on an 88-point pace (by far a career high). There are certainly some other red flags there too which will likely have an impact on his assist counts and therefore point totals, but he is putting more shots on net than ever, and getting more power-play time than ever – both good signs for a breakout even if these wild percentages fall back to earth.

Leon Draisaitl is a really interesting one. His 33-plus shooting percentage is too high as is his 30 percent after accounting for those empty-net goals. Just as a reminder, though, that his shooting percentage over the past three years is 19.33. Clearly, we shouldn't expect goals to continue at this pace – that 75-goal pace he is currently on isn't going to sustain, but a 25 percent shooting percentage still puts him at 60, and 20 percent gives him 50.

On the flip side though, things are actually kind of looking reasonable for Alex Ovechkin.

His 16.7 percent empty-net goal rate (compared to his total goals) is exactly what we would expect given what we saw above with last season's numbers. His 16.7 shooting percentage is a touch higher than his career 13 percent -15 percent, but very much in the reasonable realm at this stage in the game. His current 60-point pace might be a touch high, but 50 points definitely seems within reach.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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