Wild West: Players to Sell High in the West
Grant Campbell
2021-11-22
Teams have played between 15 and 19 games so far, so we have a pretty good sample pool of stats to go through. I'm going to focus on some players in the West that if you have on a fantasy team, I would look to sell at their highest value.
These players will more than likely have their point production slow down and their peripheral stats like plus/minus get worse as the season progresses. They are all at a productive high-point in my opinion.
Kevin Shattenkirk – Anaheim 18-4-10-14 (plus-6) 19:50 ice time
Shattenkirk is on pace for 18 goals and 64 points and a plus 27. At 32-years of age, he does have a career-high of 56 points in 2016-17 where he split the season with St. Louis and Washington. He is certainly capable of 40 or more points but he hasn't had more than 34 since his career year. His expected goals for at 5on5 is 9.27 while the team has scored 16, while the expected goals against at 5on5 is 13.70 with the actual being 11. Shattenkirk should be faced with both production slowing down and his plus/minus regressing.
Shayne Gostisbehere – Arizona 19-2-12-14 (even) 21:09
Gostisbehere is on pace for nine goals and 60 points while being even in plus/minus. Twice with Philadelphia, has he exceeded his current pace. In his rookie season in 2015-16, Gostisbehere had 17 goals and 46 points in 64 games for 0.72 pts/game and bettered that in 2017-18 with 13 goals and 64 points in 78 games for 0.82 pts/game. Arizona is not the offensive team that Philadelphia was and Gostisbehere is not a strong defensive player, so it stands to reason on a weak Coyotes team that 60 points is a stretch and his plus/minus should suffer a little. I'd expect a top end of 40-45 points and around a minus 10 by the end of the season.
Andrew Mangiapane – Calgary 19-15-2-17 (plus-6) 15:10
I think the world of Mangiapane and by including him here, I'm not saying that he can't or won't score 35-40 goals. He is shooting at a career pace of 2.5 shots/game and currently succeeding 31.3 percent of the time. He's a very good shooter who had a shooting percentage of 19.8 last year and 15.6 the year before. If we assume that he will maintain 2.5 shots/game (in 178 games before he had 1.5/game) and shoots 20 percent he could see 40 goals. More than likely he will see his shot pace slow a little and percentage come somewhere in his prior range. If Mangiapane can get to 35 goals and 50-55 points it is an excellent year for him. Interestingly enough, his two assists are both secondary.
Oliver Kylington – Calgary 18-3-9-12 (plus-10) 16:51
Kylington is on pace for 14 goals and 55 points while being a plus 45. All three of those seem unlikely for a player that had five goals and 11 assists in his prior 95 games and only dressed in eight games last year. His PDO is a little high at 103.8 and 66.7 percent of his nine assists have been secondary. All of his production has been at even-strength, but he is still playing mostly third-pairing minutes with a season-high of 19:22. Kylington has most certainly progressed now that he is 24-years old, and has earned a little more ice time at around 18 minutes per game. If he can get 8-10 goals and 30-35 points it is an excellent year for him.
J.T. Compher – Colorado 12-6-4-10 (even) 18:24
Compher is out until mid or late December with an upper-body injury. Don't be fooled by his six goals and 10 points in 12 games, when he returns as most of his elevated totals and ice time were as a result of injuries or covid to Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin. He saw the power-play opportunity that more than likely will not be there in late December. If you can convince someone that he is good for 0.83 pts/game and 25-30 goals move him.
Nazem Kadri – Colorado 14-5-14-19 (plus-1) 18:19
Kadri is in a similar situation as Compher above and should see his 29-goal and 82 assist pace slow right down once MacKinnon is healthy in mid-December. Kadri's career-high is 61 points while he was with Toronto in 2016-17. He has flirted with a point-per-game pace in the playoffs a few times but he consistently puts up between 0.6 and 0.7 pts/game. The team has 14 goals at even-strength when he is on the ice and the expected goals for is 7.85. A reversion is coming.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Edmonton 17-1-18-19 (plus-6) 21:18
Nugent-Hopkins has a career-high of 69 points in 2018-19 followed up by 61 points in 65 games in 2019-20. Unfortunately, he only had 35 points in 52 games last year and expectations of a point-per-game player were lowered. Currently, he is on pace for 92 points and is more than capable, but indicators such as a PDO of 107.0 and expected goals for at 5on5 of 7.81 with actual goals at 14, paints a picture of production that will slow down. He has 12 power-play points (all assists) in 17 games and as good as the Oilers' power-play is, I don't think he will get 57 PPP by the end of the year with a career-high of 26, although that is in danger.
Ryan Hartman – Minnesota 18-9-4-13 (plus-10) 17:09
When a player averages 0.38 pts/game over 365 career games it is unusual for that same player to double his output in his sixth NHL season. Hartman is on pace for 41 goals and 59 points and a plus 50. His ice-time is up to 17:09 this year after a career-high of 15:04 last year. His shots on goal per game are at 3.4 compared to his career average of 1.7. I think his career-high of 19 goals and 31 points are in danger but his shooting percentage of 14.8 should revert closer to his career average of 9.5 and his shots/game will come down as well, but not to 1.7. I think he has a 25-goal season in him, but not 41.
Alex Goligoski – Minnesota 15-1-11-12 (plus-4) 19:40
Goligoski is 36-years of age and on a more offensive team than his last stop in Arizona where he averaged about 23 minutes per game and 0.42 pts/game. In Minnesota now, he is averaging 19:40 per night and has 12 points in 15 games (65.6-point pace). The team is over-achieving while he is on the ice at even-strength as their 5on5 shooting percentage is 11.9. We can expect his points/game to revert to normal (0.40 to 0.45) throughout the season. It is still impressive if he can get 32-36 points at this stage of his career.
Rem Pitlick – Minnesota 9-4-3-7 (even) 9:26
He has four goals on six shots on goal (66.7 percent). The 24-year-old rookie had two assists in 11 career games before this season. This is not the indication that he has arrived as a prospect. He's played well but he's been fortunate.
Timo Meier – San Jose 12-6-9-15 (plus-5) 17:48
After a 30 goal 66-point season in 78 games in 2018-19 as a 22-year-old, has disappointed a little over the past two years with 49 points in 70 games and only 31 points in 54 games last year. Even with such a great start to this year, I only hope he can have a season that matches or exceeds his career year. His PDO is 108.2 and the team's 5on5 shooting percentage is high at 13.7 while he is on the ice at even strength. His production and his plus/minus should both come down.
Jonathan Dahlen – San Jose 16-7-2-9 (plus-4) 14:09
Dahlen was injured on Saturday night and might miss a few games. He is on pace for 30-35 goals after his first 16 NHL games, but his PDO is 110.8 and the team's 5on5 shooting with him on the ice is 16 percent. Both numbers will come down and as a result, his plus/minus should revert and his production should slow down. His shooting percentage of 22.6 is a little high but if he can maintain 15 percent and keep his 1.9 shots/game he could see 20-25 goals this year which is a very good rookie season.
Some of these players would have been waiver pickups in hockey pools and now are assets to include in trades. Take advantage while you can with players like Shattenkirk, Kylington, Hartman, Goligoski and Pitlick.
Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.