There were no games with American Thanksgiving yesterday. That gives me time to talk about some things I haven't had the time for, so let's start with Arthur Kaliyev. This is a guy with an interesting prospect history, a unique set of skills – shouts to Liam Neeson – and obvious offensive upside. There is a lot to discuss here but I think it's always worth talking about a player who could be a future game-breaker. Those are the guys that win fantasy leagues, and I'm wondering if Kaliyev isn't turning into that guy.

Let's start with some history.

Kaliyev fell during his draft year, all the way to the second round. To say he fell might be underselling it: by NHL's final 2019 prospect rankings, Kaliyev was seventh for North America, ahead of names like Caufield, Boldy, York, and Newhook. They had him ranked ahead of most of those names at the mid-term, too; former Dobber Prospects/Hockey writer and editor Cam Robinson had him lower, but still 21^st off the board overall; the Hockey Writers were a bit lower still at 24^th overall; ESPN had him 16^th; Bob McKenzie with the same as Cam at 21^st; Scott Wheeler over at The Athletic had him 13^th, as did Corey Pronman at the same publication. All this is to say that the consensus was somewhere in the late-middle part of the first round, late teens or early 20s. Depending on the ranking, he fell a half round later or more. It reminded me of how skilled, small players fall because of size concerns, but he's 6'2". The concerns were, as some scouts might put it, "motor". If the reason a potential star fell to the second round is because he doesn't try very hard in Junior, that's something that always catches my eye. It's easier for people to be motivated than to learn to be elite at hockey.

The problems with his drive/compete/desire/whatever are a big part of why he fell, as that can bleed into every facet of the game. If a skilled player doesn't really want to try, it's easy to lose board battles, give up space in front of the net, and things of the sort. That, to me, would lead to poor numbers across the board, offensively and defensively.

His upside has always been his offense. He has an absolute rocket for a wrist/snap shot and is not afraid to use it. It doesn't seem like he'll be a high-percentage shooter, like Leon Draisaitl, but more of a volume scorer, like Max Pacioretty. That doesn't really matter for right now. Let's operate under the assumption that he has the offensive talent to be a star at the NHL level. Not necessarily whatever intangibles we want to talk about, or defensive ability, just his raw offensive talent. What indications do we have from him this year that he is trying hard, or not?

I thought I would look at his defensive impacts. They aren't perfect in smaller samples, but it can at least shed some light on the start to his rookie season. He has largely been playing fourth-line minutes, so he does get softer competition. He also gets worse line mates, though, so there is a trade-off here. From HockeyViz, his defensive impact on the team:

Blue means fewer shots allowed relative to the league average, and they are allowing very little from basically everywhere but just outside the crease. They are keeping the slot and the circles clear, and that tells me they are doing a good job clogging lanes, forcing everything to the outside or down low.

To be fair here, he has been playing with Brendan Lemieux and he has a lot of his own issues. His career impacts are well below-average, so Kaliyev's defensive numbers are even better when he hasn't had to play with Lemieux – there is a reason I mentioned earlier why getting worse line mates is the trade-off for fourth-line competition, and that it matters. We should also note the team as a whole is closer to 2.7 xGA, so they're much better as a line than the team is collectively. This isn't a case of a great defensive system juicing a line's numbers.

It is just one point of data, but it's worth noting that Kaliyev's defensive impacts have been great to start his career, and worth remembering one big reason why he dropped in the draft was his compete level. If this guy can put up good defensive impacts and be great offensively? That is what superstars are made of. It's almost as if kids can get bored destroying youth league after youth league but when the opportunity to make in excess of $100M in the next 20 years presents itself, a mindset can change.

We are talking six weeks of hockey here and nothing is definitive. His offence hasn't come around at 5-on-5 yet but he leads the team in shot rate on the power play. He is on pace for double-digit power-play points but probably around 25 points overall. This is what happens when someone skates on the second PP unit, but also on the fourth line with Brendan Lemieux. He has skated more on the top PP unit of late but as long as he stays on the fourth line, 40 points is his upside this year.

That he may not be great for fantasy this season doesn't mean anything. The fact that he looks to be engaged defensively at 5-on-5 and contributing on the power play is a pretty good start for a kid who just turned 20 in June. He should move to the top-6 next season and then we're off to the races.

Where Kaliyev ends up remains to be seen. I have watched maybe a half-dozen Kings games this year and made a point to pay attention to him when I do. He hasn't looked out of place. In fact, I think he's improving, and the coaching staff has been giving him more ice time of late. All good signs.

My personal opinion is that it wouldn't surprise me to turn into an Oliver Bjorkstrand-type fairly quickly. A very good two-way winger with a lethal shot that makes him a perennial 30-goal threat with three shots per game. There is upside beyond that, though, and I'm excited about his future, especially with the young talent coming up around him.

*

With all the hubbub around Alex Ovechkin and his incredible start, another incredible start from Washington has been shrouded: Evgeny Kuznetsov has 24 points in 20 games, averaging a career-high 2.7 shots per game. He is on pace for well over 30 PPPs and a very high plus/minus rating, for those into that sort of thing. Despite Washington being without their second line for basically the entire season to date, the top line has absolutely torched the NHL.

The concern here, besides the team shooting 14.7% with him on the ice, is the return of Nicklas Backstrom. He has been skating, though he still needs hard practices and contact practices and all that. But it does seem he's not that far away, and Kuznetsov is going to start losing a lot of ice time.

That the team is going to start scoring less – they can't maintain 14.7% shooting – and he's going to start losing ice time is a very big worry. He could be looking at a 20% decline in scoring from his teammates through natural shooting regression (about 12% shooting the rest of the way) and losing 3-4 minutes of ice time a night. That doesn't signify good things.

It might be time to start looking for trade routes. When everyone is healthy, there's no guarantee that Kuznetsov even keeps top PP minutes. If Backstrom returns in a couple weeks, Kuznetsov's trade value absolutely plummets. Then again, the next month of games includes a lot of easy nights, so it's a balancing act. Just do not expect a point-per-game the once Backstrom gets back to the lineup.

*

I saw someone tweeting about how good Rasmus Sandin's season has been and decided to look for myself. Uh, yeah, he's been great:

• By Evolving Hockey's expected goals against impact, the highest of any player in hockey, meaning elite defensive impacts
• By HockeyViz's offensive and defensive impacts, he has +49% and -20% respectively. That means the team is generating 49% more expected goals with him on the ice compared to the league average and allowing 20% less defensively.
• Leads all Toronto defencemen in assist rate at 5-on-5
• Leads all Toronto defencemen in individual scoring chance rate, despite being third in shot rates. He doesn't waste shots, he's picking his spots with precision.

Put it all together, and… dear god:

If we extend the bars, his offensive impact early stretches into the fourth standard deviation. We should mention he had positive impacts in his brief two stints, so this isn't out of absolutely nowhere like Oliver Kylington.

He has just been utterly ridiculous for this team, but they are shooting 5.2% with him on the ice, the lowest of any Toronto defenceman. He is in the 10^th percentile for on-ice shooting percentage, on a team that is shooting 6.6%. Once they start scoring more, he is going to take off, even if he's playing 17 minutes a night. He may not score enough to be a fantasy monster, but I think he can post 30 assists this year. That would give him 23 in his next 60 or so games. I think he is in for a big final three-quarters of the season, relatively speaking to his ice time.

Two things about this: Toronto should sign him now and dynasty owners should get ready for him to potentially be a PPQB. Maybe that's just wishful thinking, but I do believe they're smart enough to realize if he's good enough to take over for Rielly eventually. For now, it remains just a dream.

A great start to the season for him, though, and let's see if he can maintain anywhere close to top-end impacts.