We are sitting at the three-quarter pole of the NHL season, with most teams having played somewhere in the vicinity of 20 games. At this point, we have lots of data to work with. Personally, I incorporate seasonal data after a couple weeks, but generally speaking, once we get to 20 games, teams and players are who they are for the season. Of course some things will change; injuries, coaching changes, lineup changes, COVID shutdowns, the Olympics, and dozens of other issues, there are lots of reasons why performance will change for some players/teams the rest of the way. But most players and teams won't vary wildly from what they've done so far, which is why the proverbial cutoff of American Thanksgiving is a popular one in the NHL: it happens to coincide when stats stabilize.

With that in mind, here are some stats from the first six-or-so weeks of the season, and what it could mean for the rest of the year. Let's start with the most obvious team:

New York Islanders

A little over a week ago, I wrote about the Islanders and their awful start to the season. Everything I said there holds up, and there's an added wrinkle: a COVID shutdown. Now, I am not one to believe in excessive coincidence, and I find it odd that the three players named in the article as having very poor starts – Chara, Bailey, Lee – were the first three players put on the COVID list before the team's shutdown (or among the first, I can't quite remember the order they hit the list). Were these players playing with COVID for weeks leading up to the shutdown? That is nearly impossible, so the likely answer seems to be that these guys were playing poorly, and *then* caught COVID. I have to say, that doesn't make me feel good about a turnaround.

The team was playing poorly – 27^th by shot share, 15^th by expected goal share – in their 17 games before the team was shutdown. At time of writing, at least one third of the roster has COVID with surely more cases to come. This team is a year away from new deals for Wahlstrom and Barzal. This is going to be a very interesting few months for the Islanders and their long-term future.

Calgary Flames

The team that leads hockey in expected goal share? I wouldn't have listed them if it weren't the Flames.

I have talked extensively about how Sutter was going to turn and has turned this team around, so that's ground that doesn't need to be covered. What does need to be covered is Oliver Kylington, because I think he's a big reason for the turnaround.

To be sure, the top line has been great and Coleman/Mangiapane has made a wonderful shutdown duo on the second line. Add in superlative goaltending from Jacob Markstrom, and there are a lot of storylines that will paper over what Kylington has done, but his role has been as vital as any other aside from Markstrom's.

On the season he has 12 points in 20 games. What works out to roughly a 50-point pace, and here's the kicker: not a single power-play point. Every point has come at even strength. When something like that happens, I tend to think it's a player having a hot month riding the coat tails of a good line. The thing is, Calgary is still good offensively when Kylington is on the ice without the top line:

All of this points to a good start for Kylington, and that makes him a fascinating player.

Going back to his draft year, depending who you talked to, Kylington was a first-round talent, or a third-round talent. No surprise, he went in the second round. He hadn't really done much, production- or process-wise, for years, and the assumption was his development had stalled. Here he is at the age of 24, now an NHL regular.

It is just six weeks, and I would beware of small samples from defencemen playing down the lineup. Other young defencemen like Travis Sanheim and Travis Dermott had good-to-great play-driving numbers skating against the depth from the opposition earlier in their careers:   

Neither has turned into a number-1 defenceman, yet. That is why we have to give more than 20 games, or a season, or even two seasons, to defencemen that show great numbers down the lineup. Sometimes, they turn into Dougie Hamilton. Other times, they turn into Colin Miller. Not a sleight against Miller, because he's a quality NHLer, but there's an obvious gap between how he turned out and how Hamilton turned out.

This is a good start from Kylington, and shows that he can probably be a future NHLer. Just, let's hold off on crowning him a perennial 40- to 50-point threat or anything of the sort.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Sidney Crosby was injured and then contracted COVID, and he's barely been impactful at all this season; Evgeni Malkin hasn't played a game; Bryan Rust is currently injured and has just two goals on the year. Despite all this, the Penguins are sixth in the league by expected goal share and 13^th by actual goal share. The team is 9-7-4 and currently sitting in a playoff spot (as of Monday afternoon).

There are a lot of reasons why this team is succeeding but the truth is, Evan Rodrigues has saved them. I truly mean that: he leads the team in on-ice expected goal share, shot share, and actual goal share. Whether process or results, Rodrigues has been at the forefront of this team. He's averaging a career-high 16:22 a night and has 29 points in 56 games going back to last year, a 42-point pace. He has 15 in 21 contests just this season.

If this team can get Crosby and Malkin healthy for the playoffs, and Rodrigues playing the way he is, they are a Cup contender. You have those three, Jeff Carter, a good mix of scoring/checking wingers, and a solid blue line. I really do think the only think that keeps Pittsburgh from being a contender is health. It has been a great start to the season for Rodrigues in particular and if he keeps this up, they are a very dangerous team.

A special shout out to Blueger and the boys on the third line. They have been doing yeoman's work shutting down the opposition, and they've also been a big factor.

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Very good news for MacKinnon, Colorado, and, well, all hockey fans:

Nathan MacKinnon is in a normal jersey for practice. Jared Bednar said the goal is for him to play Wednesday in Toronto. #Avs pic.twitter.com/92qUjAIz2M

— Peter Baugh (@Peter_Baugh) November 29, 2021

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A suspension for Marchand:

Boston's Brad Marchand has been suspended for three games for Slew-footing Vancouver's Oliver Ekman-Larsson. https://t.co/SpI0MVHulW

— NHL Player Safety (@NHLPlayerSafety) November 29, 2021

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Carey Price was skating with no equipment:

Carey Price on the ice this morning in Brossard @CanadiensMTL

📢 advertisement:

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) November 29, 2021

He obviously still has a ways to go before returning to the lineup but given what he's gone, and is going, through, he can take as much time as he needs. It is just good to see him back on the practice surface for the Canadiens.

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Good news for Marco Rossi, so far:

#mnwild prospect Marco Rossi is still being evaluated, but he was thrown down yesterday in an AHL game and the right side of his face hit the ice. As of now, I'm told they haven't found a fracture, but he's a little banged up. But sounds like he wasn't seriously hurt

— Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) November 29, 2021

I saw that news late on Sunday night and was fearing the worst. This poor kid already had his rookie season derailed by long-COVID complications but was off to a great start in the AHL this year with 15 points in 13 games. That he seems to have escaped serious injury in a scary situation like this is good news.

I do wonder when we see him in the NHL. Will it be before the end of the AHL season? I hope so.

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A note from Panthers practice on Monday:

Tippett getting an extended look on PP1

— Jameson Olive (@JamesonCoop) November 29, 2021

He was moved there in their last game and it’s nice to see they’re sticking with it, so be sure to check your waiver wires, people. Even third-line minutes with PP1 status brings him into relevance in 12-teamers. He was on pace for 40 points, 140 shots, and 75 hits without those minutes. We have been warned.

Also from the Panthers, Gustav Forsling is on the IR and Matt Kiersted was called up in his place. Forsling was off to a very good start this year with 12 assists in 21 games with 83 shots+hits+blocks.

Aleksander Barkov was skating before practice but is still not close to returning.

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I have seen momentum gaining for NHLers to not go to the Olympics and after seeing the arguments – quarantining, being stuck in China if you test positive, the compact schedule because of the All-Star Game – I certainly understand the NHLPA's side of this.

It would suck to not see a best-on-best, and if we can't get this, I hope we at least get some sort of World Cup in the summer.

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On the Habs front, former Rangers GM Jeff Gorton was introduced as Montreal's, I guess, co-GM on Monday. The team said they are searching for, essentially, a partner for Gorton, and one that is bilingual as to communicate with the francophone fanbase.

As the resident Habs fan, I'm indifferent here. Gorton seemed fine with the Rangers, making some great deals like the acquisitions and/or signings of Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox, among other home runs. He also made some mistakes on the blue line like Brendan Smith's contract, signing Jack Johnson, and I still think the Jacob Trouba contract will not work out, though that's more conjecture than anything for now. The same could have been said for Bergevin, honestly: home runs in things like signing Tyler Toffoli, Brendan Gallagher's first contract, the Max Pacioretty trade, the Jeff Petry trade, and so on. Then we have things like Carey Price's monster contract, letting Alex Radulov walk (though bringing him in was good, so we'll call that a wash), the David Savard contract is already looking bad, Karl Alzner's atrocious contract (which will go down as one of the worst of the cap era) and just the failed development of nearly every prospect for a decade. Is Gorton better? I don't know. I legitimately don't know. What I do know is Montreal has maybe $4.5M in cap space next year, and that's with Shea Weber on LTIR, and nine players to sign, including half their blue line. If by some longshot Weber is able to play next year – which, to be clear, is in serious doubt – then they're already $3M over the cap with eight players to sign. All this is to say: either way, Gorton and whomever his mystery partner is (I'm betting it's Hollywood Hogan) have their work cut out for them next year. Just rolling over this roster another season with a couple low-priced additions on the blue line is not going to fly.

It is a new era in Montreal and the work needs to start immediately.

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Jared McCann scored twice while Brandon Tanev had a goal and two assists in Seattle's 7-4 win in Buffalo on Monday night. It wasn't a very pretty game from either side, though Rasmus Dahlin in particular had a very rough night for the Sabres.

Jeff Skinner scored twice for the home team in the loss, giving him eight goals on the year. He is one goal shy of the seven he had in 53 games last year. It's nice to not shoot 6%.

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That whole Brady Tkachuk–Brendan Lemieux thing? Don't care. The best thing to come out of that entire affair was this:

Sorry everybody, Morgan Freeman wasn't available. But I found the next best thing. https://t.co/WvOcKffZSJ pic.twitter.com/T83zur4lv2

— John Cougar Colleencamp (A) (@BillTouspille) November 29, 2021

Happy Tuesday, everyone.