Ramblings: Hughes’ New Deal; Filip Foursberg; Tuukka Rask; Tampa Bay’s Depth & More (Dec 1)

Alexander MacLean

2021-12-01

The New Jersey Devils extended their franchise cornerstone Jack Hughes to an eight-year deal that sees him earning $8 million per season through the 2028-29 season. My contract projections had him in the $5-6 million AAV ballpark, which would have made some sense on a short-term bridge deal. The Devils sure didn't want to bet against him popping off right away, so it's a big price tag to fit for cap league owners in the immediate future, but he should be playing up to (or even way past) that level very soon.

In Hughes' return from a shoulder injury, he actually played wing alongside Yegor Sharangovich and Nico Hischier through the first two periods. In the third Janne Kuokkanen was swapped for Hischier, with Sharangovich taking the faceoffs. Both lines funnelled chances for San Jose all game, though to be fair the entire Devils team looked flat in front of Mackenzie Blackwood, who also didn't do them any favours. Hughes is unlikely to be taking many draws as it would be putting large and unnecessary stress on his recently injured shoulder.

The Sharks got contributions from across the lineup, with 10 different players notching points. The powerplay also went one-for-three, but it's tough to rely on anyone from their team for power play points. The team is scoring on less than 20% of their power plays, and they're also splitting their talent between two equal units. As a result, it might be time to look into shopping Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture, and Kevin Labanc.  

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Drew Doughty and Drake Batherson also made returns for their respective clubs. Both players are putting up career numbers thus far (though Doughty's is in a very small sample size), and should be a bit part of competing fantasy teams moving forwards. Expect Doughty's numbers to regress a little closer to his production from the last few years, meanwhile Batherson's numbers look entirely sustainable.

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The Flyers' centre ice position is still in a state of flux right now. Carlie O'Connor has it as succinctly as possible for you here:

If Brassard is back for the game after, it could mean that Frost is sent down for the foreseeable future. That being said, the forward group in Philly has more than its fair share of injury-prone players, so he shouldn't be down for long.

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Here's your weekly update on the Jakob Chychrun plus-minus watch:

Minus-three over the last four games keeps him on pace for the record. It's not just his plus-minus numbers that are notable though. His shot rate is up to 3.2 per game, and he hasn't gone a single game yet this season without a shot. If your league doesn't count plus-minus, or if you can punt it, he's a great defenceman to buy in on. The rest of the way he could be a top-10 fantasy defenceman.

Kyle Capobianco was paired with Chychrun last night, and he has been one of the few bright spots for the Coyotes thus far. With five points in his first eight games, a few peripherals, and a surprising plus-six while seeing 14 minutes a night, he could be worth a short-term stream if you're in desperate need for defencemen.

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Bruce Cassidy, Cody Ceci, and Tyler Bozak were the latest confirmed names added to the league's Covid protocol. This is bad news for Boston, Edmonton, and St. Louis, and it could only be a matter of time now before we see even more postponed games. Beware of streaming from those three teams in the coming days, as you may not get the full slate of games that you might expect.

On a related note:

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On the other side of possibly streaming Bruins, if you're looking for PIMs next week, circle the VAN/BOS matchup on your calendar. Brad Marchand was suspended three games for slew-footing Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and his suspension conveniently ends just in time for the two teams to play again December 8th. It's a recipe for fireworks.

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In a couple of my league Tuukka Rask has already been stashed away for his seemingly inevitable return. Yesterday we got even more fuel to toss on that fire, as GM Don Sweeney said that Rask will "likely be part of our group".

Might be the right time to swap out Linus Ullmark and/or Jeremy Swayman for another goalie. Semyon Varlamov, Darcy Kuemper, and Marc-Andre Fleury are interesting possible buy-low names.

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The date of the Midseason Guide is now set – and it will be January 15. This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can pre-order it here.

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Brendan Lemieux only received a five-game suspension for biting Brady Tkachuk. The Sens and Kings have already played their two contests against one another this season, but don't expect this incident to be forgotten by next year. In the meantime, Lemieux won't be missed on your fantasy teams, but it does almost guarantee that Carl Grundstrom will be in the lineup for those five games. The 23-year-old is shooting more and putting up more points than previous seasons despite seeing less ice time than any point in his career. He's currently on the bubble of the lineup, but he's the kind of player that could produce well if he receives regular minutes.

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Filip Forsberg scored four goals last night, and all I can think of is how many millions he's adding to his wallet. He's a UFA at the end of the year, and there is a very real possibility that he doesn't finish the season in Nashville as they continue to re-tool. Wherever he ends up though, he will likely be in a better fantasy situation than his last few years with very little support in Nashville. That's great news for owners in fantasy leagues, though in cap leagues there's a need to be cautious. The new contract will likely be a few million higher than a career 60-point forward deserves. Forsberg has shown flashes of being able to produce at a higher level, but can never keep it up with any consistency, in addition to having horrible timing with injuries just as he's heating up.

My projections have Forsberg around $8.5 million per year on his next contract, which is about $1.5 million more than what I would be comfortable paying him, especially if he gets any kind of term on it.

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Speaking of $8.5 million men, Steven Stamkos missed last night's game for the birth of his second child. He should be back in the lineup very soon, so not to worry. It doesn't look like the Lightning missed a beat without him though.

On offence that's not too surprising as the depth of Tampa Bay just keeps stepping up when the need the next man to produce. Taylor Raddysh scored the first goal of his career last night, and should be a staple in the lineup next year. This year he's still on a two-way deal, and when the entire lineup is healthy there are too many veterans that are blocking his way. When Pat Maroon and Ondrej Palat likely walk in the offseason, the path will be clear for a full-time lineup spot next season, just as his contract switches to a one-way deal. He may not pop immediately, but there's some upside here over the next few years, as he did put up excellent numbers in the OHL and AHL.

This kind of contract structure is a great way to find the next guy up if your league is deep enough to stash these kinds of players.

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Sticking with the Lightning, backup goalie Brian Elliott has been one of the least effective goalies in the league thus far, and I wonder how long until the Bolts look to shore up their goaltending behind Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Craig Anderson, Anthony Stolarz, or one of the Arizona tandem could fit the Lightning's needs as goalies putting up solid numbers while not breaking the bank. As you can see though, the options are limited, and it makes you wonder if they don't instead look at some internal options.

Amir Miftakhov has taken over as the starter for Tampa's AHL affiliate in Syracuse, and has put up excellent numbers with a 2.32 GAA and a .922 sv% though nine games. His counterpart, Hugo Alnefelt, has struggled behind the same skater group with a GAA of 3.56 and a .864 sv%. For the Lightning, there wouldn't be any harm in giving a game or two to Miftakhov to see if he can hold his own at the NHL level. If so, he may be able to spell Vasilevskiy for a few more games than they may be comfortable giving to Elliott at this point. However it plays out, it's something that bears watching as there is a great win percentage available for a capable backup in Tampa, especially if the wear and tear of three years of a heavy workload starts to be felt by Vas.

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Despite the milestone, Bowness appears to be on the hot seat, and if he is indeed replaced then we could see a boost in offence from some of the key players. The team is at a point where some of their underlying metrics are at the point of being unsustainably bad. The on-ice shooting percentage for some of the big names like Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov, and Denis Gurianov is below five percent, where the average is usually twice that, between eight to nine percent. These things usually correct themselves, so the key guys in the Dallas offence are worth looking at as buy lows. This kind of thing is often compounded by a coaching change though, so if we do see a new bench boss in Dallas, expect the turnaround to be swift.

Roope Hintz with three goals now has 10 goals in his last nine games. Him and Jason Robertson are about the only two skaters that aren’t looking like they will be seeing much of a positive statistical regression. After last night’s three-point game, Joe Pavelski looks to be about settled too.

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Erik Cernak isn't known for scoring, but sometimes things just go your way. Wishing you all this kind of luck with your fantasy teams through December and the Holiday season. Feel free to find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 16 - 13:11 BOS vs STL
Nov 16 - 16:11 SEA vs NYI
Nov 16 - 19:11 CAR vs OTT
Nov 16 - 19:11 T.B vs N.J
Nov 16 - 19:11 PHI vs BUF
Nov 16 - 19:11 MTL vs CBJ
Nov 16 - 19:11 FLA vs WPG
Nov 16 - 19:11 TOR vs EDM
Nov 16 - 19:11 PIT vs S.J
Nov 16 - 20:11 MIN vs DAL
Nov 16 - 20:11 L.A vs DET
Nov 16 - 22:11 VAN vs CHI

Starting Goalies

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JONATHAN LEKKERIMAKI VAN
UVIS BALINSKIS FLA
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
VALERI NICHUSHKIN COL

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  Players Team
TRISTAN JARRY PIT
CAM TALBOT DET
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY T.B
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency N.J Players
17.4 STEFAN NOESEN TIMO MEIER NICO HISCHIER
16.7 ONDREJ PALAT JACK HUGHES JESPER BRATT
15.0 DAWSON MERCER ERIK HAULA PAUL COTTER

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