Talking about defencemen is probably my favourite thing to do because the position has evolved so much over the last 20 years that it always feels like we're on a new frontier. Regardless, there are a pair of defencemen I want to talk about today, and both were high draft picks this past fantasy season. Let's dig into Arizona's Jakob Chychrun and Vegas's Shea Theodore.

Jakob Chychrun was not a player I was focused on in draft season. It never made sense, to me, to draft him as a top-10 blue liner on a team that certainly looked destined for the lottery. With that said, I did not envision a season anywhere near this bad, fantasy-wise. I still had him breaking 40 points, and he's currently on pace for fewer than 25. That goes with the 6-7 goals he's on pace for, and it's all very ugly. The peripherals have been consistent, it has just been an awful scoring pace that has killed his value. Well, that and the minus-29 rating. That is something else we need to talk about. First, the points.

The team is struggling, mightily, to score with him on the ice. While that's not really surprising, given the quality of the team, Arizona is shooting 4.5% with him on the ice at 5-on-5. Even at their worst, over the previous two seasons, the team shot around 6.9% at 5-on-5. No defenceman from 2019-2021 had an on-ice shooting percentage under 5.8%, and fewer than 2% of all defencemen had an on-ice SH% under 6%. All this is to say, at worst, his on-ice shooting percentage should increase by about one-third the rest of the way, leading to 33% more goals, and (hypothetically) a big increase in point production. Well, "big" is relative here as we're starting at such a low scoring rate anyway. Nevertheless, it is possible we see Chychrun's point rate at 5-on-5 increase by at least 33% over the balance of the season, and that's something positive here. It would make him, ostensibly, a 30-point defenceman, which is a lot better than what he's done so far.

We need him to be more than a 30-point defenceman the rest of the way, though. Is there anything more coming on the power play, given he has one power-play point on the year?

In short, yes, there should be a lot more coming from him on the power play. Over the previous three seasons, Chychrun registered a point on 55.5% of power-play goals scored with him on the ice. This season, that number sits at 33.3%. He should get a point on 40-50% of power-play goals scored with him on the ice, so his PPP rate will climb.

Of course, the team needs to start scoring with the man advantage. On the season, they're scoring 2.97 goals per 60 minutes on the PP, which is awful. Double that rate would be an average power play. But they're shooting 6.5%, and that will obviously climb. Even just getting to 10% would increase their PP scoring by roughly 50%. In short, the power play will get better, and he's due more points anyway. He won't explode, but he could put up double-digit PPPs over the balance of the season, or close to it. That is far better than what he's done so far.

When broken down like that, we see his 5-on-5 scoring rising and his PP scoring skyrocketing. That is all through natural regression, and very reasonable (low-end) targets. I think there's a good chance he puts up around 25 points the rest of the way, and that makes him considerably more valuable than what he's done so far.

Finally, the plus-minus. No, he won't finish minus-90 or whatever on the season. He has a 916 PDO on the season. While he should finish under 1000 given how bad this team is, 916 is absurd. No player finished below .960 across 2019-2021, and fewer than a dozen players finished under 970. He is last in the league, and it's not particularly close. That will rebound and with it his plus/minus. He will be a big minus, he just won't finish minus-90. Somewhere closer to minus-50 is sensible (for as unbelievable as that sentence is).

All this is to say, as long as fantasy owners are not playing in plus/minus leagues, there could be some value here the rest of the way. A defenceman putting up around 25 points in 55 games with his level of peripherals will play just fine. Of the team's next 17 games going through mid-January, 12 are at home. It is hard to imagine Chychrun's value being any lower than it is right now. It is a question whether he can be rostered in plus/minus leagues, but without that consideration, his value rises a lot the rest of the way.

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The other guy to talk about is Shea Theodore. To be clear: he is on pace for over 55 points and that's just swell. But that is also a decline from last year, when he paced for 65 points. He also has seen his shots per game drop from over 3.0 to 2.55. In sum, we're looking at a nine-point and 40-shot drop for a player in his prime and skating more per game than ever.

As far as points go, despite the injuries, the team is sixth in goals per 60 minutes this year. They are still scoring, and he's still racking up points at 1.33 per 60 at 5-on-5. That isn't far off from the 1.5 he had last year. Quite simply, the power play has been an issue.

On the season, with Theodore on the ice, the team is scoring 5.5 goals with the man advantage. That is a career-low for him, having averaged 6.9 goals per 60 minutes over the previous three seasons. With their players getting health, a PP turnaround here would do wonders for his production.

The power-play shooting is also an issue for Theodore. He's averaging a career-low shot rate, and that's not good for his scoring. Whether that turns around, who knows. But if he doesn't start shooting more on the power play, his shot rate is unlikely to improve.

There is lots of reasons to believe that Theodore's best games are ahead of him this year as Stone and Pacioretty are back with Karlsson to follow and Eichel in a couple months. If 55 points and 200 shots was a bad start for him, it speaks to what he can do the rest of the way. Theodore owners should get excited.  

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An update on Jujhar Khaira after that devastating hit he took from Jacob Trouba:

Great news: Jujhar Khaira has been released from the hospital. #Blackhawks pic.twitter.com/EonoLvNE82

— Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) December 8, 2021

It always sucks that, as a fan, hearing "he's awake" is a good sign for a player 3-4 times a year, but this is undoubtedly good news for him. He is obviously going to need a lot of time to recover, so all the best to him and his family over these next couple months. Hope to see him back on an NHL ice surface real soon.

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We also have an update on Casey Mittelstadt:

Sabres back at it without Casey Mittelstadt and Zemgus Girgensons. Malcolm Subban is still absent. pic.twitter.com/JICdbrEVz8

— Bill Hoppe (@BillHoppeNHL) December 8, 2021

Coach Don Granato said that there's a chance of re-injury here for Mittelstadt, and that's awful news. He had an upper-body injury that caused him to miss several weeks, but he returned only to apparently be injured again. Just a tough break for a kid who has had to work his tail off to succeed in such a stagnant franchise.

Fantasy-wise, this, perversely, is good news for Dylan Cozens. It just thins out the competition at centre and assures that he should stay at 15 minutes a night from now on. Likely not much for significant fantasy value, but it's something.

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An update on Moritz Seider:

Mo Seider is skating this morning.#LGRW pic.twitter.com/mAWzMubZJq

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) December 8, 2021

He was injured in Detroit's last game and, understandably, fantasy owners and Red Wings fans alike were holding their breath. That he's back on the ice and skating is clearly very good news, as it appears he's avoided any serious injury. There is good news, sometimes!

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A note on Kirill Kaprizov:

Oh, is that good? 🤩

cc drew doughty pic.twitter.com/KqbxhxY5Xm

— Jessi Pierce (@jessi_pierce) December 8, 2021

Yes, he came into the NHL as an older rookie, but this is still remarkable. He still came into the league on a new team, needing to learn the language and culture, all during a pandemic season. Not only did he fit in seamlessly, he has asserted himself as one of the top offensive wingers in the league. That he's done all this under more difficult conditions than any crop of rookies in recent history is a testament to just how good he is.

What his ceiling is, who knows. Maybe he's close to it already. If that's the case, "elite producer" is a pretty good ceiling.

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Both Brett Pesce and Tony DeAngelo were taken out of COVID protocols for Carolina. Whether they need some time to get ready, we'll see, but the team has five games in the next eight days, including today. If they're ready, it won't take them long to recoup their fantasy status of a couple weeks ago.  

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Jake Guentzel is week-to-week with an upper-body injury, which is brutal timing for him. He had 27 points in 24 games, including points in 13 consecutive games. For the time being, Kasperi Kapanen is on the top line in his place.

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MacKenzie Blackwood shutout the Philadelphia Flyers on 25 shots while Jesper Bratt, Dawson Mercer, and Michael McLeod all scored for New Jersey in their 3-0 win. It was a very solid outing from Blackwood, who hadn't had many of those recently.

Bratt had a goal and an assist in this one, bringing him up to 22 points in 24 games. At the age of 23, he is just starting to hit his prime, and he's not shooting a high percentage, either. This has been a fun breakout to watch, and there's no reason to think he can't continue it most of the way.

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Colorado went in and beat up on the New York Rangers' backup AHL goalie, scoring seven times in the 7-3 win. Logan O'Connor was put back on the top line and promptly scored two goals, while Mikko Rantanen, down on the second line, also scored twice.

Nazem Kadri had a goal and two assists, but also sustained a lower-body injury and did not return. We will get an update from him sometime Thursday or Friday.