Ramblings: Hunt and Kakko; Rutherford; Devon Toews; Schmaltz Update – December 10

Michael Clifford

2021-12-10

It is funny how hockey can work sometimes. It is my belief that the right player slotted into the right spot can really change a team's fortunes. The reason being is one injury can put one guy in a position he shouldn't, and then the next guy in a position he shouldn't, and so on down. Just look at St. Louis playing Ivan Barbashev as the second-line centre last night in Robert Thomas's place for how much the domino effect matters.

I mentioned Dryden Hunt on a hockey stream recently and how he very well could have saved the New York Rangers' season. While obviously hyperbolic – they were in the midst of a 10-1-0 run at the time – the Rangers' winger situation has been a mess all year, specifically the right-wing situation. Trading Pavel Buchnevich in the offseason was a bad bit of business, and left them without any real depth on right wing.

Enter Dryden Hunt, now on his third team in three years. While looking at Hunt's profile, something stuck out immediately: he seems to be good defensively (via Evolving Hockey):

Those are exceptional defensive impacts. The reason why that is necessary is neither Artemi Panarin nor Ryan Strome are particularly good defensively, and that is a problem. It can be hard for them to transition the puck once it gets in their end, and that's where Hunt can help. In fact, it's bearing out in the numbers already. Below are Panarin's/Strome's numbers both with and without Hunt this year. The difference is drastic: 59% expected goal share with him, 53% expected goal share without him. A big change has been an improvement of offensive shot quality, in the short-term, increasing by over 25%. Theoretically, a good defensive player will help transition the puck faster, which could lead to more quality. Either way, it's a small sample, and nothing reliable yet, but it's a step in the right direction.

Of course, it's not just Hunt being on the second line that matters here. With him helping solidify that trio, Kaapo Kakko can now remain on the top line with Zibanejad and Kreider, with that third line of Lafrenière-Chytil-Gauthier playing very well. For the first time this season, the team seems to have three genuinely good lines at 5-on-5, and it's because of Dryden Hunt. That is why I, hyperbolically, said that he saved their season. They would have been in the playoffs without him, but they can roll three good lines for the first time this season. Having an elite goalie is very nice to have, but having an actually-good team is even better.

Again, this is all a small sample, so we'll see where they stand in March as opposed to December. But it's a nice start, and could make this Rangers team legitimately formidable.

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Still not quite sure what to make of Logan O'Connor. For fantasy, I'm not sure his role is reliable enough to just say "scoop and play him." At the same time, he has at least 15 minutes in three out of his last five games, has five points in that span, and is now on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon.

One thing that sticks out to me here is that the Avalanche clearly love him as a player. Going back years, he was often the injury call-up, even when he hadn't proved a lot at the AHL level yet. Not that he got a lot of minutes, but call-ups for contenders rarely get much ice time anyway. Now, he's skating 15 minutes a night and it seems their faith in him over the years has been rewarded.

On the season, he has the second-highest shot rate of any Colorado winger behind Mikko Rantanen, and Rantanen has been shooting less since MacKinnon's return, so O'Connor might be the most shot-happy winger the Avs have right now. For a team that generates as much offence as they do, having a shot-happy winger on the top line should be great news for fantasy value.

This all depends on his role. If they change things up and move him back to the bottom-6, he should be dropped. All the same, it does seem the team likes him and he's getting run for now. At the least, check your rosters to see if there's any dead weight to be dropped.

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I am also at a loss as to what to do with Sonny Milano. I am, always, on the lookout for late bloomers, but this may be a bit much. His last full season in the AHL saw him at about 2.6 shots per game, and that was three years ago. He has just been floating on the periphery of the NHL since then. Yeah, he's a first-round pick from 2014, but that was seven and a half years ago. A lot has changed.

One thing I will say is this: Milano's underlying numbers look strong even when he hadn't been skating with Trevor Zegras. To that extent, maybe there is something here, genuinely. Watching the Ducks, he hasn't looked out of place, particularly, on that second line. What if this is for real?

He has obviously been scooped already and I think it's worth just holding on for now. The ice time is inconsistent but until Ryan Getzlaf is healthy, he's playing on the team's top line. This could be a big deal for Anaheim, as adding a genuine top-6 winger out of nowhere is how rebuilds are turbo-charged. They need more help, but the blocks are starting to pile up.

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Just want to shout out Devon Toews. No reason, really, I just really like watching him play hockey, and watching him and Cale Makar is a genuine delight. He has 17 points in 14 games this year and is wildly underrated. That'll stop, eventually.

I'm coming around on the idea, if NHLers go to the Olympics, of sending Toews-Makar, Weegar-Ekblad, and Theodore-Pietrangelo defence pairs. All elite pairs in the NHL with tremendous chemistry already. Why not? That would be one less headache for the coaching staff to worry about, and you know that if one defenceman is injured, there are other reliable pairs you can turn to. It would seem prudent, given the nature of the tournament.

Then again, I am not on the Canadian decision team. Anyone have their numbers?

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Jim Rutherford looks to be part of the management structure in Vancouver:

I'm sure Ian will have more to say about this over the weekend, but for all of Rutherford's faults, he took a Pittsburgh team that was spinning its tires during the primes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and made them Cup champs again. Twice. He certainly has some mulligans on his rap sheet, but every GM does, and he's actually helped build a Cup champ with two different teams.

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Casey Cizikas and Brock Nelson look to be back soon for the Islanders. It is not a moment too soon as the season continues to slip away from them, even if they've stemmed the losses for a hot minute.

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A Nick Schmaltz update:

This is a big deal for Arizona, a team utterly bereft of offensive talent. An infusion of even an above-average playmaker instantly makes Schmaltz one of their more dangerous players. We will see what they decide to do with him but there are line combinations here that could be exciting now.

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Looks like David Perron will be back soon as well. This team is precisely one top-6 forward short of having three very good lines, and they're about to get Perron back. This is a team that could be very dangerous the rest of the way.

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Mark Giordano was back for Seattle on Thursday night, returning from the COVID list. The team might not score enough for him to have significant fantasy value but at least he's back in the lineup. That is a boost for a team that needs as many boosts as it can get.

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Marc-André Fleury secured his 500th career win with a 2-0 shutout of Montreal on Thursday night. He stopped all 30 shots he faced, and doing it in Québec has to be extra special for him. He is now well over .910 on the season, by the way.

Henrik Borgstrom jumped to the top line for the Blackhawks and scored the second goal. He didn't get power-play time but he did skate over 17 minutes at even strength, third among the team's forwards.

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Steven Stamkos had a goal and three assists in Tampa Bay's 5-3 win over Toronto. He also had five hits in this, so he's now sitting with 32 points in 25 games, to go with 27 hits. It appears his fantasy demise may have been exaggerated.

Taylor Raddysh jumped to the top line as Anthony Cirelli was a game-time scratch and had a goal and an assist here. After having one points in 19 games to start the season, he now has three goals and six points in his last six games. If he can become a reliable two-way forward for them, well, it changes the outlook of the depth when they're healthy.

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Adam Boqvist was injured in Columbus's game on Thursday night and left the contest. The Jackets lost 2-1 in the shootout, but any extended time missed from Boqvist will hurt more.

Jake Bean skated over 27 minutes, second-most next to Zach Werenski. He is likely to be the fantasy beneficiary if Boqvist is out for a bit.

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