Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Although many fast and slow starters have already met in the middle, players are definitely still over or underachieving. Can you tell which of William Nylander, Miro Heiskanen, and Andrei Svechnikov fall into each category? Test your fantasy hockey IQ by trying to predict who is too hot, too cold, and just right, then see if you went three for three. Data for each is current through Friday December 10th games played.

William Nylander (28 games, 12G, 15A, 103 SOG, 12 PPPts, 18:57 TOI, 2:59 PP, 68.3 PP%)

In his first two full seasons Nylander scored at a 60+ point rate, before a 2018-19 where he never hit his stride. Then he upped his scoring to a 68-to 71-point rate. Still, some wondered whether it'd be possible for him to truly shine amidst so many top tier Leaf forwards. So far for 2021-22 he's doing even better than his prior two seasons. Can it last though? Not only is the answer yes, but he looks to be on the verge of becoming a true star.

One huge key for Nylander is for the first time he's seeing the majority of his ES shifts with Auston Matthews, versus in previous seasons usually having been tethered to John Tavares. This was even before Mitch Marner's injury. Although Tavares is defying father time; no one would deny he's a step down from Matthews. Moreover, while Nylander is seeing ample top unit PP time and there isn't likely much room for that to grow, his ES TOI could rise in the normal course, as he's still not logging 19:00 per game while Matthews is averaging 20:37. With more ice time should come more scoring, as Nylander's Pts/60 is ticking upward for the second season in a row, yet still presumably with room to grow further if he sticks with Matthews.

A glaring stat for Nylander is his SOG per game, which, at 3.7, not only is a 1.2 SOG per game higher than his career rate through 2020-21 but also marks the first time he's been at 3.0+ in any campaign. Even with the huge jump in SOG and taking a lower percentage of SOG from 0-15 feet than in either of his prior two seasons, however, his SH% is right at his career rate. The key is his PPSOG, which is just below one per game, versus his usual one per every two contests. Looking at forwards who have more PPSOG than him thus far, over two-thirds have at least one season of 90+ points to their credit.

Digging even deeper, just four of Nylander's 14 assists have been secondary assists. When you factor in his goals, less than 15% of his total points have come via secondary assists. If you compare that to those ahead of him in the scoring race, just two of them have a rate of secondary assists that also is less than 15% of their total points. Looking at leaders in percentage of points via goals or primary assists from 2020-21 among those who tallied 49+ points, it's like a who's who of fantasy elite: Aleksander Barkov, Sebastian Aho, David Pastrnak, Matthews, and Mika Zibanejad. Needless to say, that's some pretty fine company in which to find oneself. In saying, Nylander's rate of secondary points – and, with that, his scoring – is likely to only increase as the season unfolds.

Put everything together, and the news is even better for Nylander. At his current paces he'll finish the season above 3.5 SOG per game, 11% SH%, and both .40 goals and assists per game. From the 2000-01 to 2020-21 seasons, there were 121 instances of those criteria having been met in the same season by forwards, with 92 being point per game or better. Focusing on just recent seasons, eight of the 11 who did so in the past two campaigns averaged at least 1.14 points per game, which translates to a 93-point full season pace, and the average points per game of the 11 was 1.24. Nylander's stats this season put him in very fine company.

Nylander's career to date seems to have consisted of him producing similar numbers for two seasons, then laddering up. If that was going to happen in the normal course, he'd be near the point per game mark as he is now. The difference this season is he's skating with Auston Matthews and shooting the puck a lot more. Given this, recent comparables, plus Nylander's ratio of secondary points to primary points, it seems like a matter of time this season before Nylander's scoring rate truly explodes. For all these reasons, Nylander has been TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 2.25, as by the end of 2021-22 if he stays with Matthews he could post 90+ points.

Miro Heiskanen (24 games, 3G, 13A, 63 SOG, 7 PPPts, 24:42 TOI, 2:13 PP, 49.7 PP%)

The former third overall pick made the NHL at age 19, posting 33 points and not at all looking like a boy among men. He upped his scoring rate to 42 points as a sophomore; but it was his 26 points in 27 playoff games that season which left poolies with the highest of expectations for him in 2020-21. Rather than carry through that playoff momentum, he ended up not even producing a point per every other game. This season, which happens to coincide with his 200-game breakout threshold, he's producing better. Should we assume that as the season unfolds he'll continue to improve? On the contrary – it's more likely than not he'll finish at a lower scoring rate than now by the end of the season.

One big issue cutting against Heiskanen is PP time. Neither Heiskanen nor John Klingberg sees even 50% of Dallas' PP minutes. But wait – Heiskanen has seven PPPts, so all is well, right? That is a strong output; but it means 43.75% of his points have come on the PP, and looking at 2020-21 data, not a single defenseman had that high a percentage of percentage of PPPts, with the top five all averaging at least a full minute more PPTOI per game than Heiskanen is now. Plus, Heiskanen's IPP on the PP is 70%, which is higher than all but one Stars forward, meaning it has nowhere to go but down. When coupled with his low PP time in general, and John Klingberg mainly being used on the top power play unit, it signifies that Heiskanen's scoring thus far, with his PPPts comprising nearly half his total points, will go down in the normal course.

What about Klingberg being a UFA likely to leave after this season? Won't the result of that be Heiskanen seeing his PP minutes soar? I wouldn't count on it. As we've seen with how they've handled Jake Oettinger, who seemingly is already the team's best goalie but has had to bide time in the minors and now is only splitting starts, Dallas is tentative, especially with its younger players. Plus, they have Thomas Harley waiting for a larger role, which could come in the form of the PP2 minutes Heiskanen is seeing now. Long story short, in view of neither him nor Klingberg seeing 50% of PP minutes, plus these other factors, it's unlikely that Heiskanen's PP time issue will be solved if/when John Klingberg leaves as a UFA after this season.

Moreover, it's not just Heiskanen's IPP on the PP that is glaring, as his IPP at ES is 52.9%, which is well above average for a d-man. But the issue is if it's this high, why doesn't he have more ES points? The conclusion that must be drawn is even if his IPP is sustainable, which it might not be given the average of his prior two seasons was 45.5%, there isn't as much offense generated while he's on the ice at ES, since otherwise he'd have more points due to his IPP. We can't look for a bounce back at ES to offset points he'll shed on the PP.

Also helping ensure his point won't crater is Heiskanen shooting the puck more than ever, plus his secondary assist percentage being 38.5. Furthermore, the mere fact he scored those 26 points in the playoffs puts him in very elite company, as in the history of the NHL the eight-other d-men who tallied at least 23 points in a playoff year, and every one of them had at least two seasons of 76+ points in their career. Does that comparison necessarily mean anything for this 2021-22 though? Unfortunately, no given his overall metrics.

On another team, Heiskanen might be right up there with the likes of Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Quinn Hughes as a prolific scoring young defensemen. On the Stars, however, not only does he still have John Klingberg in the picture this season, but Dallas doesn't give either one much PP time, plus Heiskanen has a glaringly unsustainable IPP on the PP and high IPP overall in view of his ES Points. All things considered, Heiskanen has been TOO HOT for 2021-22 so far, and should finish at closer to a 45-point-pace, giving him a rating of 8.5.

Andrei Svechnikov (24 games, 9G, 12A, 76 SOG, 7 PPPts, 17:01 TOI, 3:38 PP, 65.8 PP%)

After a decent rookie campaign, Svechnikov scored at a 74-point-pace as a 19-year-old while firing tons of pucks at the net and racking up hits, leading to poolies talking about his as the heir apparent to Alex Ovechkin. But a step back to a 63-point-pace in 2020-21 had those supporters pumping their brakes. This season Svechnikov has been hovering around the same mark as his 2019-20 breakout campaign. Will he produce better as the season unfolds, what with this being his magical fourth season and coinciding with his 200-game breakout threshold? I wouldn't bet on it. Instead, I think he'll stick right around this pace.

Looking at Svechnikov's metrics for this season thus far, his SOG rate is on pace for easily a career best, yet his SH% is comparable to his career rate and his ratios of SOG from 0-15, 16-30, and 31+ feet are both in keeping with last season, when they actually were better than what they were in his prior best season of 2019-20. It's a sweet spot where Svechnikov is shooting more yet maintaining his rate of accuracy and not becoming a less selective shooter.

Can he still shoot more? Maybe not, as Svechnikov is seeing only 17:01 per game this season. Despite that, he's within the top 25 among all forwards in SOG per 60 minutes, with only one player – Dustin Brown – who has more SOG than him averaging less TOI per game than him, and only by seven seconds. Why would Svechnikov's ice time be down this season versus last, especially given he's getting more 44 more seconds of PP time per game? It might be due to him being more sheltered, as his OZ% is 57.8% this season, having not even been 54% in any prior season. Thus far in 2021-22, Svechnikov is seemingly doing about the best he can in terms of shooting the puck, plus is being deployed in a manner favorable to him scoring. The good news is his OZ% likely won't drop this season; but it probably won't rise, and, with that, neither will his ice time, hindering him from producing more but at the same time guarding against a drop in scoring rate.

The other issue is for someone who shoots as much as Svechnikov – he's in the top 30 over the past three seasons in collective SOG among forwards – he doesn't have a high goal total. In fact, of the players with more collective SOG than him dating back to 2019-20, a mere three have fewer goals than him, with none of those being in the top 20. Unless Svechnikov can find a way to translate his high SOG volume into more goals, that would presumably put a cap on his scoring rate as it appears to have to date.

What about other metrics? Svechnikov is on pace for his overall IPP to be under 60% for a second straight season, and with it being only 66.3% in his breakout 2019-20 campaign. It would be one thing if he was playing alongside the very best players on the Canes; but he's not joined at the hip with Sebastian Aho, and is on pace to yet again take the ice for about 50% of his ES shifts with Aho, seeing plenty of time with the likes of Jordan Staal, Jesper Fast, and Seth Jarvis. You'd think, therefore, Svechnikov's IPP would've been higher at least one season. Yet it hasn't, raising concern in that as I've noted in my columns I usually like to see an ES IPP of 70%+ from a forward in order for that player to become elite. While it is still early in Svehniikov's career, his failure to come close to hitting that threshold even once, and this despite some less talented linemates, raises concerns as to his nose for scoring, which, in turn, makes it difficult to see him upping his scoring rate this season and perhaps even longer term.

Svechnikov is productive on the PP, as for the second straight season he's averaging just under one PPPt per roughly every three games. Yet there too his IPP has yet to reach the 70% mark. It's a marvel he's tallying as many PPPts as he is, and owing likely to Carolina's potent PP1, which ranks third over the last two seasons in PPGs and less so to him being adept with the man advantage. Moreover, for the third season in a row Svechnikov's secondary assists mark is above 50%, which is high for a winger who shoots as much as him, since in most cases those shots should result in goals – although we saw above he's lacking in that area – or if not goals then primary assists. However, that's happening with Svechnikov, who's seemingly a rare case of a sniper who's behaving more like a set up guy. Until he picks one direction though, it should put a ceiling on his scoring rate.

Still only 21, Svechnikov has rightfully garnered a lot of attention due to his combination of scoring, hitting, and shooting. Yet his shooting volume hasn't translated – at least at this point – to a high goal total, and his IPPs, both overall and on the PP, are low enough as to question whether or not he has the nose for scoring required to be a point per game or better player. For the time being, he's benefitting from playing on a high scoring team, especially on the PP. Perhaps as he ages he'll make a leap; but with this his magical fourth season coinciding with his 200 game breakout threshold, his output thus far might be all we can expect from him for at least the time being. Accordingly, Svechnikov's production is JUST RIGHT, and he receives a rating of 5.5. Even if he gets more ice time, it'll likely come at the expense of offensive zone starts, so it's not clear if/when he might take the next step, especially bearing in mind his IPPs.

***********************

Questions for Mailbag

My monthly mailbag is in a couple of weeks and has plenty of room for questions .To get yours to me, you can (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, or (2) email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.