Well the latest wave of Covid is running through the NHL, and we have already seen a number of players, teams, and games affected. We're not out of the woods yet, and this season may end up being just as bumpy as last year when all is said and done.

This is the kind of time that allows you to look at your borderline players with a very critical eye. There was an excellent article over on GoaliePost going over how to manage your roster during Covid, and it very succinctly outlined how to handle a handful of difficult situations. Check it out here.

There were at least two players (Morgan Frost and Tucker Poolman) who were pulled mid-game due to Covid protocols. That’s not good, and it puts a whole host of other teams at risk for positive tests and postponements now.

*

Chandler Stephenson does not want to give up his top line spot to Jack Eichel. The former Capital put up three more assists last night to bring him up to 14 points in the last nine games, and seven in his last two. He really loves having Max Pacioretty back.

His underlying numbers seem a little high, though they have been a little inflated for the last few years now; that’s what star line mates can do for you. I’m really curious to see how this team fits together when Eichel is finally healthy. The way things are going right now, it may actually be William Karlsson who is relegated to the third line. The former 40-goal scorer has only five points in 13 games on the season, which is a far cry from the 60-point forward he has been the last three seasons.

*

The date of the Midseason Guide is now set – and it will be January 15. This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can pre-order it here.

*

Tomas Tatar, a notably streaky scorer, has gone four games without a point now, and he's dragging his new linemates (Dawson Mercer and Andreas Johnsson) down with him. He's more of a cut-bait option than someone to be buying low on though. The forward line you want to be looking at in New Jersey is whatever line Jesper Bratt is on. He's turning into the real deal… a bit more on that later.

*

Here's your weekly update on the Jakob Chychrun plus-minus watch:

Chychrun only played one game last week, and didn't record a minus, to remain at minus-29. He has also now gone three straight games without a point, but at least his upper-body-injury doesn't sound like it will keep him out for long.

*

Ottawa put up an eight-spot against Florida in an outcome that no one predicted. Spencer Knight allowed all eight goals, and with Jonas Johansson having been claimed off of waivers, you have to wonder if Knight gets sent down to the AHL for a little while as soon as Johansson can join the team.

*

Cam Atkinson notched a hat-trick last night, and now might be the perfect time to sell him. He has never had a higher shooting percentage than his current 16% mark, and his underlying numbers on the whole point to a fair bit of statistical regression.

*

In a bit of a continuation from last week's discussion of Sonny Milano and his career IPP numbers before his big breakout this year. I have been perusing even-strength IPP back a handful of years, to find where there may be some clues towards under-utilized players. One of the other very recent breakouts that we're seeing is Jesper Bratt, and he's another one of the players that IPP really helps to highlight. His numbers this season aren't even buoyed by high underlying numbers, he's really just breaking out to at least a 70-point level over a full season.

What I looked for over in the Frozentools reports, was players who showed an IPP of over 70% (and ideally over 80%) I multiple seasons with at least 20 games played, while still not having hit an age where the skills will be declining. Looking at Milano again, if he hadn't gotten a big opportunity this year, he likely would have aged out of getting fair tries at the NHL level, so we do have to keep that in mind when we're looking for late bloomers. I found five names that I want to highlight here.

Logan O'Connor

O'Connor, like Bratt, is seeing a bit of a breakout this year, though on a smaller scale. Injuries in Colorado have seen O'Connor bounce around the lineup a little, but they have also given him the chance to show that he can play with the top skilled guys. This is his second season in a row with 20+ games, and an even strength IPP of over 70% (last year was 100!). His overall IPP this year though is being held down by his power play IPP of zero, though it's tough to fault him for that as the top units in Colorado are just overflowing with talent. Overall, we're seeing O'Connor's ice time, offensive zone start percentage, and his production rise as time goes along. All of the indicators are there, and the team likely won't be able to retain Andre Burakovsky next year, meaning there will be room in the top-six for him.

Gabe Vilardi

Over the last three seasons, Vilardi has been slowly broken into the NHL after recovering from a near-career-ending back injury. He's back in the AHL now as the Kings have an abundance of NHL options, and he's better off in the long term spending some time there. Once he gets another shot though, he's going to be one of the big offensive weapons spearheading the next wave in LA. He may be the highest pedigree guy here, but having lost some key development years to injury, he has dropped a little under the radar.

Vilardi was sent down this year in-part because he was getting caved in on the possession metrics, and that is a big thing that Milano had to figure out too. There is still lots of time for Vilardi, though he has to be careful that he doesn't get passed by all of the other talent that the Kings have growing in their farm system.

Wade Allison

Allison may be more of a prospect than a journeyman waiting for a chance, but as a fourth round pick he has his work cut out for him. In his 14 games last season he showed well, putting up seven points in 14 games, logging a ridiculous 100% IPP, while posting some very sustainable possession metrics and underlying numbers. The issue for Allison is that the team is so deep in current talent, and has a stocked pipeline. It could be a few years before he really locks down a permanent job, though maybe not as long as some may think. As soon as he does though, I would expect him to be able to produce right away, seeing his minutes rise steadily even within his full rookie season.

John Leonard

Leonard hasn't had a chance to hit the 20-game threshold this year that I set, but his 44-game stint last season was very impressive. He put up an IPP over 70%, amounting to 13 points overall, despite bad luck metrics, sub-par linemates, and very limited minutes. San Jose doesn't have a deep forward core or prospect system, so there should be room for Leonard to catch a break sooner rather than later. He's a chip that could pop off as soon as he's given regular minutes in the NHL.

Right now, like Milano and Vilardi, Leonard's possession numbers haven't been great, and it does seem like there is going to be and adjustment period as he transitions to pro hockey. This is only his second season after his NCAA career, and his consistency just hasn't been there. His scoring numbers are down across the board this year, so maybe by the end of this season would be the window to look at buying in on him and waiting for the pop in another one-to-three years.

Nick Merkley

Our second Shark of the list, Merkley hasn't gotten a fair shot with any of Arizona, New Jersey, or San Jose but that's what makes him a perfect fit for this type of list. He doesn't quite hit the games played threshold that I set out, having only one season of only 20+ games, but in the small sample sizes with 38 games across the last three seasons he has never failed to hit an IPP of 75%.

In this year's set of seven games, Merkley put up a respectable three points in spite of starting less than 30% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and only 12:46 of overall ice time. It shows that Merkley can create offence, and can be more of a driver than a passenger on a line. At 24-years-old there might only be another year or two that Merkley has to make his impression with the team. As a result, he's a bit of a dice roll here, but in the small sample sizes, he has shown extremely well.

*

One other tidbit I found was that last season, David Perron and Ryan O'Reilly both put up 50+ points in 56 games, and they did so riding a perfect 100% IPP at even strength. This year ROR has seen his IPP dip drastically, but with Perron out of the lineup he has managed to pick up eight points in his last nine games anyways. I'm not sure what to make of that, but nonetheless I found it very interesting.

*

The Red Wings re-signed Robby Fabbri to a three-year extension worth $4 million per season. The deal pays him only $400K more than I had him projected for, and with that money and term, it really doesn't affect the Wings' cap situation in the short or long term. It looks like a fair deal for both sides, that is, as long as Fabbri can stay healthy.

*

In the meantime, feel free to find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.