Ramblings: COVID Issues; Montreal Injuries; Early-Season Stats on Bjorkstrand and Robertson – December 16
Michael Clifford
2021-12-16
Well, the COVID issues in the NHL just keep ramping up. There have already been a plethora of issues this year, between shutdowns in Ottawa and New York, and last reports were approaching 20% of the league in protocols this year. Just being a sports writer over the last two years, it's an eerie vibe reminiscent of March 2020, only now we have vaccines and experience. Regardless, as long as the NHL keeps playing, there is news to bring.
First, we add Patrice Bergeron to the COVID list:
That is now two-thirds of the top line, joining Brad Marchand. Craig Smith is also in protocols, and they just played the Calgary Flames, which is very noteworthy. Why? Well…
*
There is a lot more Flames news:
The league goes on break a week from tomorrow. It seems assured the Flames aren't returning until after Christmas, if not until 2022. The good news is that so far, it appears all the players and staff with COVID have avoided serious outcomes, with only a couple becoming mildly ill. Milan Lucic did say in an interview recently that the entire team was vaccinated and had begun their booster program, so this is all great news. Best wishes to the players in their recovery.
For fantasy, it is all league-dependent. Use your IRs, but they may be getting full at this point, even with expanded rosters. The best advice I can give is don't drop the elite players like Johnny Gaudreau or Matthew Tkachuk, obviously, but losing teams need to win weeks. I would be fine with dropping more middle-of-the-road players like Oliver Kylington or Mikael Backlund if necessary. It is not an easy time of the season for people to navigate and a lot of H2H players are going to have to make tough choices.
*
And on we move to Detroit:
Beyond this, we got news that the game between Detroit and Carolina would take place on Thursday as scheduled. This is despite several positive cases among the Carolina players. They did post zero positive tests on Wednesday, but as we've seen over the last two years, things can change daily, if not hourly. If they do play, the 'Canes will be at least a couple players short. I would say "pick up a Carolina forward if you can" but that game could be postponed at any minute. Buyer beware here.
*
Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund, and Philip Tomasino, among others, have also tested positive for COVID:
Like Carolina, they are still expected to play on Thursday night. Of course, like Carolina, things could change very quickly. The Predators are expected to make some callups here, so this could be a very watered-down version of Nashville that rolls into Colorado tonight.
*
Add a handful of Panthers to the list, including Bennett and Verhaege:
*
The Capitals welcome back Nicklas Backstrom to the lineup on Wednesday night, but they lost Evgeny Kuznetsov:
Obviously, we will have to keep a close eye on this as cases have been cropping up in bunches on teams. By my recollection, Kuznetsov has already had COVID twice, and if this is a positive test, it would be his third. Reinfection is a very real thing.
*
Christian Dvorak is expected to miss time with his injury:
And to double-up with Josh Anderson:
The Canadiens are really going through it now. While the rest of the league deals with COVID, the Habs have a half-dozen starters, at least, on the shelf with injury now. The team thinned out in the summer and couldn't afford this level of injuries. That is really showing with their results.
*
Kevin Labanc had surgery:
He had fantasy relevance in recent seasons but not so much this year. Maybe he'll be able to find his scoring touch when he comes back in 2022.
*
There is some actual hockey stuff to talk about, though.
Corey Sznajder is one of the most popular game trackers around. He tracks zone entries and exits both at the team and player level, shots, shot assists, dump-ins and retrievals, and a whole lot more. By my knowledge, he is the only person who does this for every team, so if his work were to ever disappear, we'd lose a lot of knowledge. People can support his Patrion here.
He released his 2021-22 data to date and I thought I would go through some of the important notes. They could be teams or players, but I will keep it fantasy-relevant. Just be warned we are talking about a quarter of a season, so the samples are small.
For today, I want to talk 5-on-5 shot contributions. For this, we mean shots on goal and shot assists, or passes leading to shots. Players that can do both are among the most talented in the league and generally are very valuable for fantasy. Guys like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Roope Hintz, Nikolaj Ehlers, Timo Meier, David Pastrnak, and Nathan MacKinnon are all relative outliers by both metrics (McDavid's shot rate is the debatable one). So which guys are relative outliers by both metrics so far this year that we may not think of as elite talents right now?
Truth be told, on a per-minute basis, by shots and shot assists, Bjorkstrand's closest comparable is William Nylander. Another player down this list, Jason Robertson, also, more or less, fits the bill.
It isn't anything new for Bjorkstrand, really. Evolving Hockey had him as a good play driver for years, and his shooting talent likely led to a lot more goals scored than should have been. However, he was often stuck on the second line, having never skated 18 minutes a game for a season, and John Tortorella's Blue Jackets were defence-first. That is not the case anymore, and Bjorkstrand is off to a great start with 23 points in 27 games.
While more skilled players would be nice, Bjorkstrand is making good on promise he's shown for years. At 26 years old, he could easily have his best season ever.
Another Eastern Conference winger off to a great start this year is Bratt with 24 points in 27 games. That he's only shooting 10.3% means it's not a shooting percentage binge on his part, and his shot contribution profile this year has been similar to players like Andrei Svechnikov and Matthew Tkachuk. The question is: can it last?
It is worth noting he was well above average in both metrics last year as well. His rates weren't far behind the guy we've often named here in Jason Robertson. Bratt, like Bjorkstrand, also had a history of driving the play for his team, and he's 23 years old, in his prime. That a good player has only gotten better is very plausible.
The next step here is power-play production and more ice time. He is sitting with 11 PPPs and 16:18 a game over his last 73 games. Neither is enough for top-end fantasy production. I suppose if he keeps up this play, though, he'll forced the coach's hand soon enough (he has been over 18 minutes in four straight games).
Here is a player to keep an eye on. The reason for that is by Sznajder's data going back years, Rodrigues was not much more than a middle-of-the-road player by shot assists. Now, that, along with a high shot rate, would make for a fine NHLer. But he's not just fine, he's on pace for 65 points. Unlike Brett and Bjorkstrand, Rodrigues did not have a history of high-level play driving. He, again, was fine, as in the middle of the league by those metrics. All that is to say, the fact he has the same shot assist rate as Artemi Panarin in fewer than 30 games played without a long history of doing so should raise some flags.
That isn't to say he hasn't turned into a very good player. We've seen late bloomers across the league do very well like Joe Pavelski and Mike Hoffman. We just need to see him do it for more than 28 games, which is something he hasn't done. He is a risk the rest of the way, but if he can maintain this level of play, he could be a great fantasy asset. It is up to the individual as to how much risk they want to take.
Just wanted to briefly mention Robertson because this is two years in a row of very good comparables: William Nylander and Brady Tkachuk this year, and Gabriel Landeskog and Alex Tuch last year. The only real concern is the quality of the team and staying healthy, not his performance. But, he’s skating with Hintz, who is very good at both skills himself.
Finally, we need to mention Viktor Arvidsson. After a couple of tough, injured seasons, he's on pace for nearly 60 points this year, and that's while shooting under 8%. If (when) that starts to correct, he's going to be scoring a lot more.
As for his playmaking, the shot-assist rate is in line with guys like Bjorkstrad, Reinhart, and Keller. He's also shooting at the same rate as guys like Bergeron and Svechnikov. Put it all together, and he hasn't been far off from the Bergeron/Bjorkstrand-types this year. His problem is his shooting, and once that turns around, it's all-systems-go for Arvidsson the rest of the way. This type of profile is nothing new for him, so it'll be exciting to see what he can do the rest of the way.
I will talk more about these, and some other stats, in a Ramblings next week.
Related Posts
UPCOMING GAMES
PIT
WPG
ANA
BUFStarting Goalies
Top Skater Views
DAL
CBJ
S.J
COLTop Goalie Profile Views
CGY
CAR
DET
LINE COMBOS
| Frequency |
 SEA Players
| |
|---|---|---|
| 19.8 | CHANDLER STEPHENSON DANIEL SPRONG JADEN SCHWARTZ | |
| 17.3 | JARED MCCANN ANDRE BURAKOVSKY MATTY BENIERS | |
| 16.1 | EELI TOLVANEN YANNI GOURDE OLIVER BJORKSTRAND | |
DobberHockey Podcasts
Keeping Karlsson: Marchment Madness
Elan and Brian look at who comes out on top the Avalanche return to health, opine on the likelihood of complementary top six players in Toronto, Los Angeles and Edmonton remaining relevant, and consider giving up on underachievers in Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia.
Fantasy Hockey Life: Corey Sznajder
Corey Sznajder of allthreezones.com joins the show to talk about how he tracks microstats and identifies a couple of players they might help them assess. Have a listen! Our show is part of the Dobber Podcast Network and sponsored by Fantrax.com. Email [email protected] and ask to join our free discord. Join our Patreon at Patreon.com/fantasyhockeylife […]
Keeping Karlsson: Matchup Maximizer Week 7
Jeremy subs in to look at the schedule for the upcoming week of NHL action and recommends some players with good schedules that you should consider streaming in to win your head to head matchups.
Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Permission To Cut
Jeremy and Shams cover the usual headlines and injuries but get your permission slips out as the second half of the show they cover a litany of suggested players from the Patreon community to give their input on whether it’s ok to cut that big name player off your fantasy team.
Keeping Karlsson: Ovi and Ovi Again
Elan and Brian disagree on what to do about a red hot Alex Ovechkin, celebrate the delayed arrival of one Oiler while waiting for another, consider forgiveness for a handful of goalies, and get panicked about a trio of power-play defensemen.