Wild West: Top Rookies in the West

Grant Campbell

2021-12-20

Some of the names in lineups might not be recognizable during a few of the games from this past week as teams have been forced to scramble and get a few AHL players signed under NHL deals to allow them to play. I'm sure this has played havoc with most fantasy pools.

This week I'm going to look at some of the top rookies in the West and see where I had them from my top 20 picks from before the season.

The 19-year-old Lucas Raymond in Detroit leads the NHL in rookie scoring after 31 games and has 10 goals and 18 assists so far. I made a mistake in my rookie predictions and only had him as an honorable mention as I thought he might need a year or two in the NHL to get to the level he is at. I was as wrong as wrong can be.

The next rookie in scoring is Trevor Zegras in Anaheim. He was probably the consensus choice for top rookie and was my number one pick as well. He had a slow start, but has elevated his game and now has eight goals and 17 assists after 30 games. He is on pace for 22 goals and 68 points. I still think he will pull ahead of Raymond and win the Calder, but it should be a close race.

Jamie Drysdale is in Anaheim as well and I had him as my 17th overall rookie in the pre-season. I thought he would be a little more sheltered than he has been and after struggling in his first eight games, Drysdale has picked up his defensive game. I had him pegged for 25-35 points and he is on pace for 36 after his first 32 games. His even-strength production has been better than I expected, but his power-play production hasn't been as much as I hoped with Kevin Shattenkirk playing ahead of him. Drysdale could have a very good second half of the season and surge to 40 plus points.

I had recognized Tanner Jeannot last season as a multi-category threat but I didn't think he would be amongst the top rookies in points. After 30 games, he has eight goals nine assists and 92 hits. He's on pace for 22 goals, 24 assists and 251 hits. Not a bad rookie year.

Karel Vejmelka was my 9th pick on my rookie list. I thought he would get an opportunity to play between 35 and 50 games and get 12 to 20 wins. I should have taken more into account how bad the Arizona Coyotes were going to be. Vejmelka has played 16 of the 29 games to date which puts him on pace for 46 games. Unfortunately, he has only two wins which put the goal of 12 wins in jeopardy. He's been average, which has been better than any other goalie in Arizona this year.

Dan Vladar in Calgary has only played seven games this year but has shined with five wins, a save percentage of 92.8 and a GSAA of 3.22. If Jakob Markstrom tires or gets injured, there is an excellent opportunity for Vladar this year.

Alex Newhook has had a chance to play this year in Colorado and has looked good in 18 games with six goals and 10 points. I had him as #14 on my pre-season list and figured he could get between 30-40 points but would struggle to get more than 12-14 minutes per night. So far, this season he has averaged 13:45 per night and because he has missed nine games he pro-rates to about 39 points.

Bowen Byram has nine points in 13 games and looked great doing it. He was on my list of honorable mentions because I didn't think the opportunity would be there this season in Colorado just yet. If he hadn't been injured there is a chance that he would be among the top rookies this year, so I was wrong there. I still think the Avalanche will look to move Samuel Girard at some point to make room for Byram.

With Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen ahead of him in Edmonton, it took an injury to Smith and some below-average goaltending from Koskinen to give Stuart Skinner a chance in net for the Oilers. He has four wins in 10 games while posting a save percentage of 91.6 and a GSAA of 1.31. If Smith comes back healthy, Skinner could be back in the AHL, but his play has proven that he belongs in the NHL.

I had Arthur Kaliyev of the Los Angeles Kings at number 10 in my pre-season picks. I knew he was a risky pick and he has teased this season with some examples of his excellent shot and release. I thought his ceiling this year might be 15-20 goals and 35-40 points. I was a little optimistic as he has six goals and nine points in 63 shots on goal while averaging 12:23 per night in 29 games. That puts him on pace for 17 goals and 25 points.

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With Cam Talbot's injury history, I figured that Kaapo Kahkonen might squeeze in 30 starts and get 18 wins this year. So far, because his play has been slightly below average and Talbot has been good, Kahkonen has only managed seven games with four wins. Kahkonen was #12 on my pre-season list and for the sake of the Minnesota Wild and Talbot's health, I don't think the team wants him playing 60 plus games this year. Kahkonen should see more starts in the second half.

Alexandre Carrier was another Predator not on my top rookie radar, but he has been very good after 27 games with two goals, 12 points and a plus 11. His current pace pro-rates to six goals and 30 assists which is a pretty respectable year for a defenseman that averages just over 20 minutes per game.

Jonathan Dahlen has benefitted from the play of Timo Meier this year and has eight goals and 14 points after his first 26 games in the NHL. He has slowed down with only two goals and six points in his past 15 games. I had him at #14 on my rookie list and thought he might get 15-20 goals and 35-40 points. He is on pace for 24 goals and 18 assists.

I had William Eklund on my pre-season list at #3, but I should have listened to myself when I said he could be the Calder Trophy winner or be back in the SHL after seven games. I was almost right as he was back in the SHL after nine games. He'll be back next season as a front-runner once again.

Scott Perunovich in St. Louis was not in my top 20, as I didn't see a pathway through the lineup for meaningful minutes. Initially, I was right as Perunovich was sent to the AHL, where he absolutely tore it up with 20 points in 12 games and was called up to the Blues. In 15 games he has five assists while averaging 16:01 of ice time while seeing 43.8 percent of the power-play time. He's right on the cusp of getting a full-time gig in the NHL but needs to bring elements to his game that help the team when he's not putting up points. Until he does that he won't get into the 17-20 minutes per night.

I squeaked Vasili Podkolzin in Vancouver into my top 20 list at #20. I knew that his offense would be limited in his first season and this would hold his production back to about 10-15 goals and 25-30 points. He has shown flashes of real talent with the puck and has a heavy shot with a quick release. In the six games since Bruce Boudreau was hired, he has a goal and an assist is a plus five and has averaged just over 15 minutes per game with a regular spot on the second unit of the power play. In 29 games he has six goals, two assists and 42 SOG which pro-rates to 17 goals and 23 points.

I had Cole Perfetti in Winnipeg at #15 on my list and after two games he was sent to the AHL where he has 15 points in 17 games. In hindsight, I think the team is pencilling in Perfetti for Paul Stastny for next season and want him to develop in the minors where he will see a lot of ice time and important minutes. They want him to be a top-six option.

Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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