Over my last few Ramblings, I have been taking the time to talk about some to-date season stats, focusing on both forwards and defencemen. While most of my analysis for fantasy hockey is via public data sites like ours at Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, or elsewhere, there are other non-public resources that can be very valuable not only for fantasy analysis, but just for understanding the game better. My recent Ramblings have used the work of Corey Sznajder, a game-tracker reviewing every game for things like zone exits/entries, dump-ins, blue line defending, and a plethora of other stats. His Patreon can be supported here.

The previous Ramblings discussed shot and shot-assist rates among forwards as well as zone-exit rates among defencemen. Today we're going to look at players creating scoring chances off of the rush. The reason for that is that teams who can gain the zone with control and immediately create something stand a good chance of scoring. It isn't a perfect science; not every player that is good on the rush is a good goal scorer. We find guys like Adrian Kempe, Jake DeBrusk, and Jakob Silfverberg are among the elite in shooting off the rush over the last three years. On the flipside, the top-5 names in that span, on a per-60 basis, are Brady Tkachuk, Timo Meier, Max Pacioretty, Kevin Fiala, and David Pastrnak. Inside the top-20 are names including Brendan Gallagher, Alex Ovechkin, Nazem Kadri, and Ondrej Palat. There are also rising stars like Filip Chytil, Denis Gurianov, and Anthony Duclair (though he's a bit more established). All this is to say, if you can control the puck with pace and precision, good things usually happen. Who knew!

It isn't that this is ground-breaking news, it's that we have actual data to at least start ordering these players. As always, this is a sample spanning about a quarter of one season, so nothing is definitive. We are just looking for good signs, and players to monitor for the rest of the year.

Carter Verhaege

Out of all the players tracked, only a handful have a higher controlled zone entry rate this season than Verhaege, and they're guys you'd expect; the Gaudreau-Point-Ehlers tier. By the same token, only a handful of players have also seen more scoring chances generated off his zone entries, and they're guys you'd expect; the McDavid-Marner-MacKinnon tier. To put it in simpler terms: his zone entries, and subsequent scoring chance rates, have been among the elite in the NHL this year.

It's at this point where we ask if this is just a blip or perhaps something more. I am leaning towards the latter. The reason for this is by the same metric last year – zone entries with control per 60 minutes and chances off those entries – Verhaege was similarly excellent, clumped in a tier with Nathan MacKinnon, Artemi Panarin, Kevin Fiala, and Taylor Hall. Over the previous two seasons, he was inside the 80^th percentile of both shot assists (passes leading to shots) and controlled zone entries per 60 minutes. That, for the next two years, the Panthers would continue to generate a lot of scoring chances and he would continue to be excellent in transition seems to just be a natural progression of a supremely talented player.

He has 25 goals and 58 points over his last 71 games, averaging over two shots per game and being on pace to crack 50 hits. He is a valuable fantasy asset no matter what. The key here is him eventually getting top power-play minutes. I genuinely believe he can be a point-per-game player with that top billing, he is that good. It is just a matter of him eventually being given that role, which the team doesn't seem overly keen on.

Jordan Kyrou

Included in that group of players mentioned in that last section from the prior season, that MacKinnon/Panarin/Verhaege grouping? That would be Jordan Kyrou of St. Louis. That has persisted this season as he has the same zone entry rate as names like Kirill Kaprizov and Jack Hughes, with the team generating roughly the same amount of scoring chances off his entries as the Rangers and Panarin or the Avalanche and Kadri. This was a guy who always displayed a lot of skill, but had to endure some injuries and some prospect growth to get where he is. Now, he has 60 points in his last 82 games, averaging over two shots per game, spanning the last two seasons. That has been while skating 15 minutes a night, by the way. What would his production look like if he skated 18-19 minutes? Something to ponder.

That is why I think Kyrou is, for lack of a better term, for real, and not a mirage. He had solid zone entry/exit numbers in small samples when he was starting his career, clearly had upper-end speed and hands, and his play has just gotten stronger over the last couple years as he's been a full-time player. The concern would be ice time, as the Blues do like to roll three, if not four lines, but he's gained two minutes from last year and maybe could be up to 18 minutes by next year. His peripherals leave something to be desired, but he's 23 and still getting more ice time. The hits are unlikely to come, but I think he can get to three shots per game in the next couple seasons.

Nico Hischier

One concern about New Jersey's outlook this year would be the performance of Nico Hischier. He hadn't really progressed with his production and was coming off an injury-plagued season. While he is on pace for a little over 50 points, that does represent a three-year high, and he's shooting a career-worst 6.7%. Regress that shooting percentage to his career norm and he's on pace for about 60 points.

The other bit of good news here is that he has been a great playmaker for the team. His zone-entry rate with control trails Verhaege by only a little, and exceeds names like Hughes, Kaprizov, and Kadri. The problem is the team is not generating much off those entries, as players like Yanni Gourde in Seattle and Phil Kessel in Arizona have higher scoring-chance rates off their zone entries. It is actually a problem that persists through the whole team, as they're generating even fewer chances off the entries of Hughes and Bratt, and the rates of Tatar and Mercer are only slightly higher. They are doing everything right, but it's not translating to a lot of dangerous chances yet. There is a good reason why the team's shooting percentage is near the bottom-10 of the league at 5-on-5.

It is good to see Hischier doing the right things, but this team still needs goal scorers to get to the next level, both for their success and the success of their centers in the fantasy game. Paging Alexander Holtz, Alexander Holtz you have a call at the courtesy desk.

Trevor Zegras

There is not much need to dig in a whole lot here because hey, guess what, Trevor Zegras has been really good this year. Now, this could be a chicken-and-egg argument of "is he good because his small-sample of zone entries is strong, or is he good at zone entries and generating chances and that's why he's good?" The thing is, there's no one else anywhere close to him from his team in his zone entry/scoring chance abilities, at least so far not this year. So this isn't just a team philosophy thing. That tells me this is more on the player, so I'm inclined to believe it's just a skill he has and that's why he's been great at it, rather than this being a small-sample issue. Of course, there's always the caveat of "it's been 30 games and he's a rookie" but he was solid in this regard last year, and do think he's just a really good young player.

Sam Bennett

The only Florida forward generating more zone entries with control is Verhaege, meaning he's doing more heavy lifting than either Aleksander Barkov or Jonathan Huberdeau, on a per-minute basis. Of course, he was inside the 85^th percentile on zone entries on a percentage basis in his last two years in Calgary, so this isn't really new for him. What is new is getting consistently great line mates, and that's probably why he's on pace for 30 goals. The assists haven't come yet, but we're getting to that.

Florida isn't generating a lot of scoring chances off Bennett's entries, as he's much closer to the aforementioned Devils tier than up with the Marners and Fialas of the world. That could be an issue for his assist totals, as they need to generate scoring chances that are coming off more than just his stick for him to rack assists. He needs his line mates to shoot more, in all likelihood, as it seems he's the triggerman on his own zone entries.

Regardless, it's good to see him still playing well and while he won't be a point-per-game player, once those assists rebound, he's a guy that can score 30 goals and 60 points with 250 shots and 150 hits. Those are monster fantasy numbers.

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Official on the NHL and the Olympics:

This isn't a huge surprise and the players have a right to be worried about their health and safety. I was really looking forward to this, so hopefully they can do some sort of summer tournament. Though, I suppose, if the league has to push the playoffs, that starts to become unlikely.