Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Happy New Year, and all the best to you in the coming year! I know we were hoping that 2021 would turn out better than 2020, and it looked like it would for a while. We can at least try to think positive and hope we will be out of the woods sometime in 2022, but we are clearly not there yet. COVID continues to inconvenience our personal lives and make hockey season less enjoyable. So much for the World Juniors.

There’s also the matter of our fantasy hockey rosters. I’ve chatted with a few people who say they are close to bailing on the season already because of all the game postponements and players entering COVID protocol on top of the usual injuries. Although I have to admit that I didn’t want to look at my fantasy rosters during the extended holiday break, I’m not ready to throw in the towel. As Winston Churchill once said, if you’re going through hell, keep going. (jan1)

2. Looking back on this year in hockey, it was been, in a word, absurd. We had the intra-divisional play season last year that was off-and-on all season long with COVID outbreaks. Then we had playoffs stretch well into July. The 2021-22 season started this year relatively problem-free, but the last month or so has been a disaster for a lot of teams.

Of course, the absurdity brought a lot of good. We saw Connor McDavid go absolutely supernova at the end of last season, a run that we haven’t seen in decades. We also saw a Canadian team head to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since the aughts, and the rise of numerous young stars like Makar, Kaprizov, Fox, Shesterkin, and Tkachuk, to name a few. We saw Trevor Zegras setup one of the most unique goals in hockey history, and we saw McDavid (there he is again) roast an entire team from a standstill. Again, it’s easy to focus on the negative because there has been a lot, but there’s been so much fun in the NHL, too. (dec30)

3. To no one’s surprise, McDavid-Draisaitl-Matthews were on the podium for most points in the 2021 calendar year. What may surprise some people is that Brad Marchand finished fourth. Behind him were another pair of wingers in Mikko Rantanen and Jonathan Huberdeau.

One of the reasons why it might surprise some that Marchand is fourth is that he’s missed a handful of games this year and, quite frankly, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak haven’t been monster producers. Pastrnak’s points-per-game mark in 2021 is a four-year low while Bergeron is well under a PPG himself. A couple years ago, each player on this line was over the PPG mark. That has all changed for a couple of them, but not Marchand.

It is fair to point out that Bergeron is in his age-36 season while Marchand is 33. It could be a genuine decline, or just two seasons that amounts to basically one full season thus far. The final 55 games will help tell the story, but it’s very much up for debate now. (dec30)

4. Here’s an interesting comparison: in 2021, David Perron has more points than both Mika Zibanejad and William Nylander, and in fewer games played than either. I find that interesting because since he recovered from his concussion issues a few years ago, Perron has been one of the more consistent producers in the NHL, but isn’t often discussed as such. He had 60 points in 71 games in the shortened 2019-20 season, and has been a point-per-game since. He returned to the lineup last night as well, and if he can step right back into his profile, this is at least a 60-point forward coming back to play.

Perron is one of the guys I root for because his injuries have been extensive but he has still managed three successful acts to his career. He was a promising young player, then injured, then bounced around the league re-establishing himself, but was injured again (though, he did win a Stanley Cup that year, so it wasn’t all bad). He has rebounded since that last injury bout and that kind of perseverance should be commended. (dec30)

5. Igor Shesterkin led all goalies in HDSV% throughout 2021, with Alex Nedeljkovic in fourth and Juuse Saros fifth. Given that we know have parts of three seasons for Shesterkin and his prowess, and his pedigree heading into the NHL, I’m wondering how much longer we have to wait to call him the best goalie in the world.

Seeing Nedeljkovic and Saros in the top-5 warms the heart. Both are under-sized goalies, and one was traded with the other having his replacement drafted a year ago. Despite that, both have been great of late, and Saros now has a big sample of being very good going back several years. (dec30)

6. Jack Hughes' season has been injury-shortened, but two consecutive three-point efforts this past week put him into near point-per-game territory (14 points in 15 games). Despite playing half the number of games as many of his teammates, Hughes is only one goal behind the Devils team lead (four players are tied with nine goals).

As for Pavel Zacha, he has just one point in his last six games and five points in his last 18 games. The initial concern might be that he’s being pushed down the lineup with a higher variety of scoring options in Jersey this season. However, his ice time and power-play time are about the same as last season, and he has also had similar scoring linemates. Even Zacha’s OZ% is up (52% compared to 42% last season). His shooting percentage was higher than normal last season (16.5%), so perhaps a regression should have been expected. All in all, he could be better, but maybe we need to temper our expectations.

After a strong start to the season, Dawson Mercer scored just his third goal in his last 16 games last Friday. An assist was also his first since November 28 (a span of 13 games). That coincides with Hughes’ return to the lineup after missing over a month, which was the concern for Mercer at the time as to whether he’d keep his strong start going. (jan1)

7. The Vegas Golden Knights were getting healthy, but now they’re getting injured again. Max Pacioretty is expected to be out indefinitely following wrist surgery. That’s an entire first line that’s not active at the moment. Mark Stone is on IR again, while Jack Eichel has yet to make his Vegas debut. The plan might be a Tampa Bay Lightning-like salary cap maneuver, but the Golden Knights first have to ensure their scoring doesn’t run dry. (dec31)

8. Because Robin Lehner is still out with a lower-body injury, Laurent Brossoit made his third consecutive start for the Golden Knights last Friday. He was just 12 seconds away from a shutout when Ryan Getzlaf scored a power-play goal. Brossoit has earned wins in back-to-back starts, and he could get the nod again on Sunday against the Jets, his former team. Keep an eye on him if you need a goalie start at the end of your head-to-head fantasy week. (jan1)

9. Jonathan Huberdeau‘s 1.28 PTS/GP pace is the best of his career. If Huby can keep up that pace, he will be in for his first 100-point season.

@ByTimReynolds: Jonathan Huberdeau had four regular-season games with five points in the calendar year 2021. The last six players to do that in a calendar year – Eric Lindros, Mario Lemieux, Steve Yzerman, Dave Andreychuk, Pat LaFontaine and Wayne Gretzky – are all in the Hockey Hall of Fame. (dec31)

10. Only a diehard Habs fan would recognize some of the names below from Thursday’s line combinations.

RYAN POEHLING – RAFAEL HARVEY-PINARD – COLE CAUFIELD
BRENDAN GALLAGHER – NICK SUZUKI – LUKAS VEJDEMO
JAKE EVANS – JESSE YLONEN – ALEX BELZILE
CEDRIC PAQUETTE – JAKE EVANS – JESSE YLONEN
CEDRIC PAQUETTE – BRANDON BADDOCK – MICHAEL PEZZETTA (dec31)

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AVAILABLE SOON !!

Midseason Guide will be out January 14. In my Ramblings, I had been saying “15” but that’s wrong. It’s the Friday, not the Saturday, that this will be out. So January 14 – 12 days! This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can pre-order it here.

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11. You may want to keep Vinni Lettieri on your watch list. Not only did Lettieri see time on the Anaheim first line with Troy Terry and Ryan Getzlaf this past week, but he was also on the first-unit power play. Trevor Zegras will likely bump Lettieri from the first-unit power play once he returns from COVID protocol, and Sam Steel may do the same on the top line. Yet, COVID protocol is putting a lot of teams in flux, which makes players like the 26-year-old AHL veteran Lettieri cheap short-term adds. He’s also available in just about every Yahoo league (0% rostered, which doesn’t mean he hasn’t been added anywhere… just that the number is closer to 0% than 1%). (dec31)

12. Wouldn’t you know it… Last Thursday, Mark Giordano scored three points in his first game against his former team, the Flames. Giordano scored a first-period goal, then later added two assists for his first multiple-point game as a member of the Kraken. Gio entered that game without a point in his previous four games and without a goal since November 6 (13 games), so getting picked by Seattle in the expansion draft hasn’t really helped the 38-year-old’s fantasy stock, which is on the decline. With the Kraken currently sitting at the bottom of the Pacific, it’s quite possible they move their captain at the deadline, since he’s on the final year of his contract. (dec31)

13. J.T. Miller now has an eight-game point streak. That’s points in all eight games under new coach Bruce Boudreau. The Canucks are in a conundrum with Miller, who has been their best player under Boudreau and arguably further back than that. If the Canucks continue to accrue points and climb back into the playoff race, then they need to keep Miller. But if they fall back to earth, then they have to consider trading Miller and his team-friendly ($5.25 million) contract that expires at the end of next season. Imagine a team on a seven-game win streak (now eight games with at least a point) discussing trading their best scorer. (dec31)

14. In his NHL debut, Felix Sandstrom (Dobber Prospects profile) probably deserved better. Sandstrom made 43 saves for the Flyers but could not pick up the win in a game that was 31 seconds away from a shootout. Sandstrom received the start because Carter Hart is currently in COVID protocol and Martin Jones started the previous night. Assuming Hart returns soon, I don’t know that we’ll see much more of Sandstrom this season. (dec31)

15. The Darryl Sutter hiring last season was thought to spell the end of Johnny Gaudreau in Calgary, but Johnny Hockey was even on the ice in the final minute to help protect the lead against the Kraken last Thursday. There’s the matter of trying to sign him before he becomes a free agent this offseason, but it seems like Gaudreau and Sutter can make it work together in Cowtown. (dec31)

Gaudreau is the highest projected free agent for this summer’s class, and it’s pretty tough to argue with his production this season. He is up over a point-per-game for the first time in three years, despite his ice time the last three seasons sitting at 18:30 per game compared to the 20 minutes per contest that he was seeing in 2018-19 when he put up his career best year. His shooting percentage, power play ice time, and underlying metrics all check out (they’re even a bit low if anything). For Gaudreau, his shot rate is up at a career-high 3.3 per game, and it seems as though he has finally put things together on a line with Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm. Lindholm is also putting up career numbers, while Tkachuk is putting up a respectable season as well. (dec29)

16. So, while everyone was busy over the holidays, and while we’re also dealing with a scheduling upheaval, I wanted to take the time to put out some updated contract projections for the 2022 free agent crop. With the new year upon us, we could see a few more extensions signed as more players become eligible. I have the top 150 listed here. (dec29)

17. John Klingberg rounds out the top three (with Gaudreau and Tkachuk) projected free agent contracts, and after we saw all of the big deals given to top Dmen last offseason, Klingberg’s $8.5 million price tag may look steep, but it actually fits right in. Zach Werenski is a very similar style of player, and will be making even more than that.

The question is, will Klingberg be able to find somewhere on the open market where he can be that number one defenceman and command that money. It won’t be in Dallas, where the Stars have decided that their number one is Miro Heiskanen, who is coincidentally making $8.45 million per season.

There are a few landing spots that will be looking for someone like Klingberg in the offseason. Seattle, Pittsburgh, and a few others are either missing a big ticket defenceman, or will also have them hitting free agency. Klingberg would be best suited as the top-dog somewhere new, rather than sticking it out where he isn’t able to be the go-to guy in all offensive situations. In fact, since Dallas will likely be losing him anyways, and since they have an in-house replacement ready to go in Thomas Harley, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Klingberg moved at the deadline. It would be a win for Klingberg as he could up his value on a playoff team right before going for his big pay-day. If he does get moved, I expect him to have a very strong finish to the season. (dec29)

18. Though generally thought of as a defensive forward, Brandon Tanev was on pace for over 20 goals and 40 points before his season-ending injury. That is what will make him hard to replace in fantasy. He was on his way to a Tom Wilson-esque season and those guys aren't available on the waiver wire.

19. It really is funny just how good the Ottawa top line is. Josh Norris is on his way to a 30-goal, 60-point season, and he had six more goals than assists as a center entering Saturday. That is just not something we see often in the league, as the centres are the distributors, and not the finishers. But that’s also what makes the Ottawa top line so dangerous: each player is a 30-goal threat. Teams can try and key in on Brady Tkachuk and shut him down, but Norris has 31 goals in his last 84 games and Drake Batherson has 26 tallies in his last 79 contests. That Norris is also among the league leaders in shot rate on the power play just adds another dimension to this line that can terrify opponents.

Norris is on pace for about 15 power-play goals this year and is shooting 20% at 5-on-4. That isn’t really that high with the man advantage, so as long as he keeps shooting, maybe he gets to 15 PPGs. This is just something to monitor as we move forward here. It is hard to see him staying in the top-10 for shot rate across the league, because there are only so many shots for that line to take with the man advantage. We do need to monitor this, because if this can persist, it would not only make Norris a 30-goal threat, but possibly a 40-goal threat as well.

20. I took a look at line combos and defense pairings and compiled a list of players who are benefitting the most from the situation. I arrived at 11 good ones. Not a nice, neat Top 10, but I’m crazy that way. I’m going really wild here and presenting my Top 11. Here’s the first player:

0.41, 0.40, 0.31, 0.29, 0.43… and 0.87?

These are the points-per-game averages each season during Ryan Hartman‘s career. Can you pick out the one in which he plays alongside Kirill Kaprizov? For this season, there is no current threat to his spot. He’s not the greatest centerman – a career 44.9% FOW will tell you that. But he’s the only current option until next year. Marco Rossi will make the jump at that point. But if Hartman gets 65 or 70 points this year in that role, then Rossi will give Kevin Fiala that much-needed skill on the second line. And Hartman’s job will be safe in 2022-23. Remember – this is a player who was acquired by Dallas for Tyler Pitlick back in 2019, and then Dallas didn’t tender a qualifying offer, letting him go for free. In a sense, he was a cast-off. (dec27)

21. Comparing Dobber preseason projections to actual results, I’ve identified surprises and stumblers at forward (two of each), defense (one of each), and goalie (one of each). Think of it as an interim report card from school, where for these players it might be okay but it might not be. Not only will I describe the to-date performance, but what to expect going forward. 

FORWARD

Surprise: Nazem Kadri

If someone time travelling from the future told you before the season that a Colorado player would be fourth in league scoring at Christmas, you would automatically assume that the player is Nathan MacKinnon or Mikko Rantanen. Kadri’s spot in the league scoring race is surprising in and of itself, but his 1.58 PTS/GP separates himself even further from the pack, as only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl score more on a per-game basis. MacKinnon’s injury has a lot to do with Kadri receiving first-line minutes, but even MacKinnon’s return hasn’t stopped Kadri from piling up the points (11 PTS in last 6 GP). A minor drop might be inevitable, but the fact that the Avalanche are far and away the league’s best offense (4.22 GF/GP) helps Kadri’s cause. 

Stumbler: Elias Pettersson

Pettersson’s issues have been well-documented. Moved to the second-unit power play and even to the third line, Pettersson simply hasn’t looked right. If there’s a glimmer of hope, it’s that the Canucks appear to be a brand-new team under new coach Bruce Boudreau (currently 6-0). Petey hasn’t set the world on fire since the Boudreau hiring (4 PTS in 6 GP), but he at least has points in each of his last three games. Pettersson’s advanced stats (8.7 SH%, 5.4 5-on-5 SH%) also show that a potential improvement is on the way, while his shot rate (2.2 SOG/GP) is similar to previous seasons. He may not be truly elite, but he’s better than he’s shown this season. Your best bet is to continue to be patient. (dec26)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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