Ramblings: Lighting Strikers; Bruin Wings; Absolving the Devils & More (Jan 5)
Alexander MacLean
2022-01-05
We're seeing the Covid protocol list grow again after it dipped following the Christmas break. A few high-profile names have been moved to the list of late, including Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Claude Giroux, Alex Tuch, Ivan Provorov, Sam Reinhart, Trevor Zegras, and many others. My best advice is to make sure your streamers are playing early in the week to try and play from ahead, make your moves closer to game time, and don't wait until it's too late to make the tough decisions with your players out of the lineup.
With Ivan Provorov missing the first game of his career, Cam York draws into the lineup. This is his fourth game of the season, and he has been a little slow to get up to speed thus far with an expected goals percentage in the 30s (that's out of 100, so it's not great). He's going to be running the powerplay soon enough, but he's not going to be ready until next fall at the earliest.
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Unlike York, there are a few rookies in Minnesota that are NHL ready. I'm talking about Calen Addison and Adam Beckman. Get those guys a regular lineup spot already!
Kidding aside, Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi look like they will be making their highly deserving and highly anticipated NHL debuts on Thursday. Boldy is slated to skate on the third line, while Rossi looks to be centering the second line with Kevin Fiala in what might be a line that could stick for the rest of the year.
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Apparently Evgeni Malkin himself has said that he expects to return sometime on this road trip. It could be as soon as tonight in St. Louis.
Not that it can really improve Evan Rodrigues' stock any further at this point, but it looks as though he shouldn't be dropping off anytime soon if he's lining up alongside Malkin.
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The date of the Midseason Guide is almost upon us! It will be dropping on January 15 (usually mid-afternoon). This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can pre-order it here.
I'm working on the peripherals section for the guide, and in diving into a few things, one of the biggest things that stuck out to me was how big of a second half Noah Dobson looks primed for. He already has 10 points in his last 10 games, but that may not just be a hot streak. His ice time is up three minutes from Q1 to Q2, while his shot rate has gone up from 1.8 to 2.4 per game. Dobson's powerplay time is also seeing an uptick, leading to the breakthrough of three power play points in the last six games.
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The Lightning blew up the Blue Jackets, scoring seven goals – the second game in a row that Columbus has allowed a touchdown. Tampa Bay is actually the healthiest they have been in months, and Nikita Kucherov is due back any day now. The entire team is starting to come together, and players like Anthony Cirelli (2A), Ondrej Palat (2G, 1A), and Corey Perry (1G) can play their roles without having to be the best player on the ice. The game is easier when everything falls in line, and you get these players into their proper slots. Look for the Lightning to go on a run, and charge up to the top of the NHL standings on the back of their scoring.
When Kucherov returns, Mathieu Joseph will be the odd man out in the top-six, though that may be good for him as well in the same way that it worked for Palat and Cirelli.
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The Bruins flipped Craig Smith and David Pastrnak as they are like to do when they are trying to get the top-six going. It worked for Pastrnak, as he potted his first goal in ten games. It also means we may see those lines for another few games, which in turn makes Craig Smith an interesting waiver and DFS option for the short term.
Pastrnak is shooting under 11% for the first time in his career, currently at 7.3%. Fix that number to 11%, and he has an extra handful of goals. Fix it to his career 14% shooting percentage, and he's up to 18 goals and 31 points right now instead of nine and 22. His underlying numbers show that he's due for some extra luck by his linemates too, meaning his assist rate should climb a little as well the rest of the way. This may be the lowest you can buy Pastrnak looking backwards or forwards a few years. Check in at least, whether or not he's actually getting moved.
In net for the Bruins, Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman have nearly identical records, and have put up similar stats thus far so it will be interesting to see how the Bruins eventually then fit Tuukka Rask in. Rask will be the number one, or the number three, with no in-between. If he is the go-to guy, then it leaves one of Ullmark or Swayman as the odd man out.
Ullmark's contract is both a blessing and a curse here, as it makes him less likely to be benched/buried, but it also means that if someone is going to be traded, he would be the guy. He has a 16 team no-move clause, which would allow him to pretty well corner the market by listing all the teams in need of goalie help on his no-go list. Many have tried to fit him in as a future Oiler as that is the only team with the means and incentive to acquire a starter at this point in time.
All that to say, if you own a Bruins goalie, it might be beneficial to swap them for a more reliable option, unless you have the means to stash all three, and wait it out.
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That's a tough pill to swallow for his fantasy owners. He's as consistent as they come with the shot volume. Ty Smith stands to benefit in his absence, while Damon Severson may also be worth a look.
The Devils are also missing Nico Hischier (Ankle – day-to-day), and Jonathan Bernier (Hip surgery – months). On top of that, they're deploying the lineup… let's just say sub-optimally. Recent first round pick Alexander Holtz is on the fourth line. It's just a mess for fantasy owners right now.
This should also mean we see the truculent Mason Geertsen with a regular spot in the lineup (whether at forward or defence is up in the air) over the next few weeks. He's someone you want on your team if you're in need of hits or PIMs.
Just another slap in the face, there were a few other incidents last night, as both Andreas Johnsson and Dawson Mercer took pucks to the face, making it four players in the last three games by my count. The Devils are in need of some absolution.
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The Capitals are also dealing with their own injury issues, but at least for them Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek haven't been off at the same time. This time it's Samsonov who tweaked something at practice just as Vanecek returns. It's tough to own one without the other. There aren't many tandems in the league where I think it's worth owning both goalies, but this would be one of them, as the Capitals are right at the top of the NHL standings.
The rest of the roster has also seen its share of injuries, but the rookies have been stepping up. That could be expected from Connor McMichael, but the others like Brett Leason, Alexei Protas, and Martin Fehervary have really filled in. Protas especially has made his mark. He has only put up six points in 22 games, however he has looked reliable, and used his big frame to great effect. I remember back when he was drafted he was pegged as one of those pass-first big centres (he is six-foot-five) that has a high upside if things pan out, but his skating was a big question mark.
It looks as though the hands and the feet have kept up with the rest of him, and he may end up being the second line centre of the future Capitals. He'll be best off with some time in the AHL, but someone to keep an eye on.
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With both Robin Lehner and Laurent Brossoit out of the lineup, Logan Thompson made his first career NHL start for Vegas. He's someone I have mentioned in the last year as one of the better prospect goalie stashes because of his upside and NHL readiness.
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From the files of "players you have never heard of": Scott Reedy was the net-front man on the top power play unit for the Sharks last night. If he can hold onto that gig then he may have some short-term streamer value in a few leagues. He has been a point-per-game player in the AHL this season, with eight of his 23 points coming with the man-advantage, so he's no stranger to producing in five-on-four situations.
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This is good news for Canadian hockey fans, as much so as you can find good news in NHL players not going to the Olympics. I'm hoping they find a way to bring a few young guys on this team to mix in with the KHL cast-offs. Would it be too much to then ask that they also find a spot for Connor Bedard?
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If you're tired of me mentioning the ridiculousness of the 2023 draft, then I have bad news for you, it's not going away. The entire class is shaping up well, but to have even one of Bedard, Mitchkov, and Adam Fantilli in the draft would make it great. To have THREE players of that caliber is incredible.
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Happy hump day all, feel free to find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.