Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

The calendar may have recently flipped to 2022, but it's business as usual at Goldipucks. This week the three players being assessed are Robert Thomas, Thomas Chabot, and Shayne Gostisbehere. Can you start the new year off with a bang by guessing which of the three is too hot, as well as who is too cold and who is just right? Go ahead and lock in your guesses and then see if you got a perfect score. Data for each player is current through January 7th games played.

Robert Thomas (28 games, 3G, 24A, 42 SOG, 7 PPPts, 19:07 TOI, 1:50 PP, 42.1 PP%)

The former first round pick was already a full-time NHLer as a teen, where he posted just below point per every other game scoring. Then he raised the bar with a 52 point scoring pace in his second season, giving poolies visions of Thomas becoming a star in short order. But 2020-21 saw him score at a rate well lower than even his rookie campaign, although in fairness he did miss a significant chunk of time to injury. Still, expectations were markedly lower for Thomas upon entering 2021-22, but he's putting up by far his best ever numbers. Can he keep up the pace though, especially among a stacked St. Louis forward corps? The answer looks to be yes.

First and foremost, Thomas is in his fourth season and – given his size and position – at his 200 game breakout threshold. Although those factors in and of themselves don't always result in players seeing a significant jump in production, they lend at least some legitimacy to Thomas' marked increase in scoring.

One key to Thomas' success is his ice time, which is leaps and bounds above anything he's had in a prior season. While some might chalk that up to padded numbers during the games Brayden Schenn missed, even when Schenn has been in the line-up his ice time has lagged behind that of Thomas. This signifies St. Louis brass views Thomas as bringing more to the table than the now 30-year-old Schenn, who's on pace to post his second worst scoring rate since becoming a full-time NHLer back in 2013-14. Yes, the Schenn that is signed through 2027-28 and makes $6.5M per season. It appears St. Louis is willing to give Thomas more minutes due to superior play, unlike with some teams, this means that Thomas doesn't have an apparent impediment to success in the form of an expensive yet worse performing player.

Looking at Thomas' scoring, one can't help but see how skewed it is toward assists. But his secondary assists rate is only 29.2%; and out of 12 forwards ranking ahead of him in assists, only one has a lower secondary assists rate. Moreover, Thomas is a pure center, and it's expected centers normally would have a higher share of secondary assists than wingers. This not only lends legitimacy to Thomas' production thus far, but also seemingly leaves room for still more points in the form of added secondary assists.

Looking at Thomas' IPPs, in his first two seasons, his overall IPPs were 70.2% and 75.0%, namely above the 70.0% threshold I've found is a reliable barometer for signifying a player can be a fantasy success. Moreover, his poor 2020-21 saw him record a paltry 48.0% IPP, with a 0.0% on the PP given he didn't record a single PPPt. What's encouraging about this season is despite Thomas now skating with by far his most talented linemates, his IPP is just below the 70% mark, which means he wasn't just factoring into the scoring in his first two seasons due to sharing the ice with weaker players. Instead, he has a nose for scoring pure and simple, such that not only does he belong on a scoring line, but he can and will produce while there, as opposed to others who have seen their IPPs crater once they graduated to playing with more elite linemates. As for his IPP on the PP, it was an identical 58.3% in his first two seasons and somehow yet again is 58.3%. That leaves room for improvement, plus even if he was to stay on what's the Blues' PP2, the depth of the team and the fact that PP1 isn't played into the ground means he should be able to continue to post PPPts, perhaps at a higher rate due to his IPP on the PP still having realistic room to grow.

If there's a weak point to Thomas' game it's his SOG rate, which is still lagging well below two per game. However, that's in keeping with him being more of a playmaking center. Plus, his selective shooting has, in the past, resulted in him never failing to top 11% for a SH%, while for this season thus far he's shooting at a mere 7.1% clip. Given that the few shots Thomas takes are quality ones – his SOG from 0-30 feet outnumber those taken from 30+ by a 3 to 1 rate – one should expect his SH% to rise and to see him sprinkle in a few more goals.

Still though, a SOG rate of 1.5 per game is low enough as to act as a de facto ceiling on his point total, as from 2000-01 through 2020-21 there were 174 instances of a point per game centers who played at least 40 games in the same season(s), with only four sporting a SOG rate lower than Thomas' thus far this season, and in fact only 13 instances by centers who failed to average two SOG per game, with more than half of the 13 from Joe Thornton, Mike Ribeiro and Henrik Sedin, who did so, respectively three times, twice, and twice.

Thomas is following the DobberHockey blueprint to success, with a big jump in scoring during his fourth season and 200 game breakout threshold. He's also getting well-deserved added minutes, and his low secondary assist percentage, coupled with sustainable – if not improvable – IPPs, suggest he's for real. Although his SH% is low enough to see gains in goals, his low SOGs and not being on PP1 likely will stand in the way – at least for now – of him doing better 75-80 points. Therefore, Thomas's 2020-21 has been JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.75. In future seasons, if he shoots more and he sees a higher percentage of PP minutes he should rise above the point per game mark and even push for 90+ points.

Thomas Chabot (29 games, 1G, 16A, 78 SOG, 6 PPPts, 27:13 TOI, 3:32 PP, 68.2 PP%)

Another former first round pick, Chabot was in the NHL for good by age 20. Once there, he scored at a 33-point rate as a rookie, which was quite decent given how Ottawa was playing. It certainly didn't prepare poolies for him to nearly double that rate as a sophomore, tallying 55 points in 70 games. Rather than building on his success, or even coming close to matching it, Chabot saw his point total drop by 16 the next season despite playing one more game. The 2020-21 season witnessed him bounce back somewhat to post a scoring rate of 52; however, with him hovering just below that level for 2021-22 thus far, should we peg it as his points ceiling? Nope, as not only should the rising offensive tide in Ottawa lift his boat, but his metrics suggests he should be doing considerably better.

To say Chabot has a dream deployment for a rearguard is actually quite an understatement. Not only does he take the ice for more time – 45 seconds more! – than any other NHL d-man, but his 3:34 per game of PP time ranks him solidly within the top ten. The big key, however, is he sees fewer SH minutes than any of the rearguards who rank in the top 50 in overall per game ice time, with a mere three of the 50 seeing less than double his per game SH ice time of 15 measly seconds. Chabot not only plays close to half a game, but in doing so he avoids essentially any SH duty. Of the 31 other instances of a rearguard playing 27:00+ per game dating back to 2000-01, just one other saw less than a full minute more than he's averaging this season per game on the PK.

Given this, it's not surprising that Chabot's OZ% is a bit high for a defenseman, at 54.6%, and above the 47.3% average it's been in the past three seasons; but for all we know that could be his new normal. Long story short, Chabot is out there so much without being saddled with unproductive SH duty, that one has to believe his scoring rate should climb just in the normal course.

Looking at Chabot's metrics, one constant during his NHL tenure has been IPP, which was in the range of 45.5% to 50.0% in each of his four seasons. What is it for 2021-22 thus far? Try 36.2%. Right there he should have roughly five more points, which in turn would have him scoring at a rate of 66 instead of 48. His IPP on the PP also is well below what it was in his first three seasons, at only 40.0%. On top of that, it was 43.8% in 2020-21, so he might be slipping to at least some extent in this area, as despite getting the 11th most PP minutes among all d-men last season his PP scoring only ranked him 44th. Still, even if he's not the PP dynamo he once was, he has no threat to his PP1 spot and his PP IPP can only go up, with there being a decent chance that it does, in which case his scoring rate would be further bolstered.

A glaring stat for Chabot is his shooting percentage, as he's tallied a measly one goal thus far this season. Yes, he's shooting a bit more, but not to an extent that it should be reflected in his SH% standing this low. Plus, Chabot has yet to finish a season with fewer than one goal per every seven games, so right there he should have three more markers, suggesting he should get a few more lucky bounces as the season progresses, upping his scoring rate even more in the process.

Does this mean it's all good news for Chabot, and, in turn we should expect his scoring to explode? Rise a good bit yes, but perhaps not explode. Why not? Counteracting all of these factors suggesting his scoring is unsustainably low, is the fact his secondary assists rate is at a rather high 62.5%, when in three of his prior four seasons – including his huge sophomore campaign – it ranged from 32.0% to 47.5%, averaging 41.3%. So while he should have a lot of points coming his way for the reasons discussed, his high rate of secondary assists should normalize and, in the process, eat away at the scoring improvements he stands to achieve. Not erode them entirely, but just counteract the gains somewhat.

Chabot is living the dream when it comes to fantasy deployment, with all the minutes he can handle yet not having to do any dirty work. Between that, lower than usual IPPs and SH%, he should stand to see his scoring rise significantly between now and the end of the season even if his secondary assists rate reverts to his norm. For these reasons, Chabot's 2021-22 is TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 2.25, as I'd expect him to up his scoring rate such that he finishes the season in the 55 to 60 point range.

Shayne Gostisbehere (32 games, 6G, 17A, 67 SOG, 6 PPPts, 21:51 TOI, 3:54 PP, 66.5 PP%)

There might not have been more of a roller coaster ride in fantasy hockey over the past few seasons than Ghost's career trajectory. After making a huge splash by scoring at a 59 point rate as a rookie then upping that to a 67 point rate two seasons later, Ghost proceeded to tally 27 fewer points in the same number of games the next season, then a mere 12 in 42 contests for the 2019-20 campaign.

When it looked as though his NHL career might be on its last legs, Ghost rebounded to 20 points in 41 games in 2021-22, finishing with 12 points in his final 19 games and four alone in his last five. He came to Arizona with low expectations in view of the presence of Jakub Chychrun and the Coyotes embarking on a major rebuild. However, Ghost has excelled, making poolies wonder if he's truly been reborn. Sadly that is not the case, as Ghost is well exceeding what his output should be.

On the surface, everything seems great. Ghost's ice time is comparable to what it was during his career best season and he's seeing an even higher percentage of man advantage minutes. Not all is back to the way it was though, as his SOG rate is well below the numbers from when he excelled. In fact, he's never even tallied a point per every other game when shooting as low as he is now, so that's not encouraging. The good news though is in Q2 his ice time rose quite a bit, and his SOG rate was back to 2.45 per game, so he's seemingly trending in the right direction.

The data takes a much worse turn when we shift to IPP. For context, Ghost's IPPs in his career bet seasons were 52.9% and 54.7% overall and 59.5% and 71.7% on the PP. Those numbers are in keeping with what one would expect from a top-tier scoring defensemen, which Ghost certainly was in two of his first three seasons. What are his IPPs in 2021-22 thus far? How about 76.7% overall and 75.0% on the PP? While to some extent I'd expect to see a bit of a jump to account for the lack of talent among Coyote forwards, those are still too high to be sustainable over the course of the season.

What's more – Ghost's offensive zone starting rate (47.8%) is under 50% for the first time ever, having not previously been even below 54.9% and averaging, over his career, 59.6%. While some might suggest him being able to succeed despite being saddled with a majority of defensive zone starts is a sign of him improving as an all-around player, a leopard doesn't change it's spots and Ghost producing as well as he is despite having such a low OZ% doesn't add up and provides further evidence of his scoring rate being unsustainable.

Most glaring among Ghost's unsustainable metrics though, is his secondary assists rate which sits at a bloated 70.6%. That mark is so high that no rearguard in the entire NHL has both more assists and a higher secondary assist rate than Ghost. Moreover, just one other rearguard (Seth Jones) has more secondary assists and a secondary assist rate over even 50%, underscoring how outrageously elevated Ghost's secondary assists rate is. Also, if there's an argument to be made that Ghost is "carrying" the scoring to compensate for a weaker forward corps, then it would stand to reason he'd have more primary assists, which would be reflective of him directly leading to a goal being scored. A secondary assist rate this high can only be seen as an unsustainable fluke, which, once the tides turn, will curb Ghost's output substantially.

Speaking of the Coyotes, they're not surprisingly faring very poorly when it comes to goals scored, averaging 2.19 tallies per game. Looking at the 16 instances of teams who've averaged 2.19 or fewer goals scored over the course of an entire 82 game season dating back to 2000-01, there was just one instance of a defenseman scoring over 40 points, and he only had 43. So given the reality of how few goals the Coyotes are scoring, it's unrealistic to expect Ghost to continue scoring at anything near his current pace.

Lastly, there is a non-zero chance Ghost is traded this year, as his current deal has one more season and the Coyotes likely would be open to capitalizing on his revitalization. If that does happen though, I'm not sure it would be a net benefit to Ghost, as although there's a good chance his OZ% would rise, his overall minutes would likely shrink. Plus, if goes to a team with more talented skaters, the result likely would be more goals scored but most likely a far lower percentage of points going to Ghost. All things considered, I don't think a trade would help or hurt him overall.

When I looked into covering Ghost for this column, I wanted the result to be he was too cold or just right given all he's suffered through the past couple of seasons; but I feared he was too hot. After all, he plays for a team that should have one of the worst offensive outputs of any squad in the last 20 years. But beyond that, several of his metrics suggest his scoring rate is unsustainable, and most likely would not be helped in the event he is dealt to another team during the season. Indeed, Gostisbehere's 2021-22 is TOO HOT, and he should score, at best, at a point per every other game rate over the rest of the season, giving him a rating of 9.25.

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Questions for Mailbag

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