Ramblings: Midseason Guide Ready! Huberdeau – Bennett – Duclair Line, Roto Rankings Risers and Fallers (Jan 15)
Ian Gooding
2022-01-15
The Midseason Guide is now available for download! If you've ordered it already, go to the Downloads section on the Dobber website. Then you'll see a link for both a spreadsheet for midseason projections and a PDF for the midseason guide itself. I'll let the tweet below do the rest of the talking.
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Florida is known as a place where retired people move to so that they can enjoy their golden years. It's also been a place where several players discarded by other teams have not just found new life, but also taken their games to a whole new level. Those players put on a show on Friday as the Panthers trounced the Stars 7-1.
Less than one calendar year ago, Sam Bennett was being healthy scratched by the Flames, seemingly destined for a fourth-line career path. That experience is now well in the rear-view mirror for Bennett, who netted his second hat trick of the season to go with an assist and a plus-5. Since being acquired by Florida at last season's trade deadline, Bennett has picked up 36 points (including 20 goals) in just 38 games. Not a bad return for a second-round pick.
At one point Anthony Duclair couldn't find an NHL home, his ears ringing from John Tortorella's comments that he didn't know how to play. With his 15th goal of the season, Duclair is now tied for the Panthers' goal lead. Duclair also picked up two assists and finished the game with a plus-6. That's the highest plus-minus total from one game this season. Since joining the Panthers, Duclair has accrued 60 points in 72 games, including 28 points in 29 games this season. Take that, Torts!
During the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season, Carter Verhaeghe averaged less than 10 minutes per game on the eventual Stanley Cup champion Lightning. He just wasn't going to get an opportunity with a lineup as set as theirs is. In two seasons with the Panthers, Verhaeghe has totaled 65 points in 79 games for an average of 0.82 PTS/GP. In other words, a 67-point pace over a full 82-game season.
Bennett and Duclair in particular owe much of their success to Jonathan Huberdeau, who is on an insane tear of his own (18 points in his last 7 games). Huberdeau scored a goal and added three more helpers, giving him a league-leading 37 assists. Huberdeau is now the fourth player to reach the 50-point mark, nipping at the heels of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ovechkin for the league scoring lead. Stepping into this elite group of scorers, Huberdeau might be getting some Hart Trophy votes this season.
Gustav Forsling scored his first goal of season, giving him points in four of his last five games. Forsling is 25 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues, so he might be able to provide you with scoring help if a good chunk of your blueline is injured. Forsling seems to be picking up points simply from playing on one of the league's top offensive teams at even strength, as none of those points have been on the power play. Mackenzie Weegar seems to function just fine without power-play time, so why not Forsling? He's mainly paired with stay-at-home Radko Gudas (who helps your multicat team in non-scoring categories), which will allow him to take some chances offensively.
Jake Oettinger was pulled after allowing four goals on 17 shots in the Panthers' onslaught. That meant that with Braden Holtby in COVID protocol, Anton Khudobin made his first appearance since November 18. As much as the Stars signing Holtby didn't make a whole lot of sense when it happened, the fact that they still have enough goalies with Ben Bishop being forced to retire and Holtby in protocol means that they're in a better spot than they could be. (My own contribution to the Midseason Guide is the goaltending writeups, which is not surprising the way I ramble on about them sometimes.)
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After scoring two goals and adding an assist on Friday, Mats Zuccarello is scoring at over a point per game (30 points in 28 games). The 34-year-old Zuccarello has never been a point-per-game player in his career, so his success has a lot to do with being Kirill Kaprizov's most frequent linemate this season.
Zuccarello's second goal of the game came just four seconds after Matt Boldy scored just 30 seconds into the third period.
Although the Wild's only truly elite scorer at the moment seems to be Kaprizov, plenty of other Wild forwards are on pace to have career seasons, including Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno, and Joel Eriksson Ek. Dean Evason deserves some Jack Adams votes, because this team is performing much better than they look on paper.
Filling in for the injured Cam Talbot, Kaapo Kahkonen has knocked off three consecutive wins, each of which was a quality start. I was lucky enough to grab Kahkonen quickly in one league literally right after Talbot was injured in the Winter Classic. He's still available in less than half of Yahoo leagues. Kahkonen is playing well enough that he should start more often than he was before Talbot's injury even when Talbot returns.
Bad news for the Ducks before the game, as Troy Terry was placed in COVID protocol. With Terry out, Max Comtois' icetime jumped dramatically from the 14 minutes he has averaged this season to 19 minutes on Friday. Comtois took full advantage, scoring a goal and adding two assists while taking five shots. After a rough start (just one point in his first 14 games), Comtois has warmed up with five points over his last six games. On those light nights that Anaheim usually receives more often than most teams, Comtois seems to be a player to consider once again.
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Colorado defeated Arizona at home, just as everyone expected. But to the surprise of many, the Avalanche needed a shootout to get past the Coyotes. Pavel Francouz started just his third game of the season, picking up his third win (one was in relief). Francouz has now appeared in three of the Avs' last four games, although Colorado played in a back-to-back earlier this week and they finish their second back-to-back on Saturday with a home-and-home against the Yotes. Still, that could be a sign that Francouz will be more than a once-in-awhile starter for the Avalanche.
After being held without a goal in his first 19 games, Johan Larsson has four goals in his last four games, including a goal on Friday. Larsson also has seven points in his last six games, a stretch that includes a game with a hat trick and another game with three assists. For what it's worth, he's playing on a line with Phil Kessel. Although Larsson isn't a player that you'll probably get too excited about in fantasy leagues, he could have some appeal on the real-life trade market as the Coyotes continue to hoard draft picks.
Midseason Guide spoiler: I don't recommend adding an Arizona goalie to your roster. (I know, earth-shattering analysis.) So credit where credit is due: Ivan Prosvetov made 44 saves in the 4-3 shootout loss. The Coyotes will need superhuman efforts in net if they are going to win more than the odd game during the second half.
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The Top 100 Roto Rankings for January will be published later today (Saturday). COVID continues to keep me busier than normal in updating these rankings, so please forgive me if an obvious name or two is or isn't on the active list! Looking past that, there are a few interesting risers and fallers from last month's rankings. Let's discuss two of the biggest risers and two of the biggest fallers.
Since Robertson was held without a point on Friday, his point streak ended at eight games. During that stretch, Robertson picked up 12 points. He may fly under the radar in the scoring race because his start to the season was delayed, but Robertson has scored at over a point-per-game pace (32 points in 28 games). Over the past month, Robertson has played on the league's most productive even-strength line with Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski (from Frozen Tools Top EV Line Last Month).
Line Combination | Team | POS | GF |
JOE PAVELSKI – ROOPE HINTZ – JASON ROBERTSON | DAL | F | 8 |
TYLER BERTUZZI – DYLAN LARKIN – LUCAS RAYMOND | DET | F | 7 |
SIDNEY CROSBY – BRYAN RUST – JAKE GUENTZEL | PIT | F | 7 |
PHILLIP DANAULT – VIKTOR ARVIDSSON – TREVOR MOORE | L.A | F | 7 |
ELIAS LINDHOLM – JOHNNY GAUDREAU – MATTHEW TKACHUK | CGY | F | 6 |
REILLY SMITH – WILLIAM KARLSSON – JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT | VGK | F | 6 |
VLADIMIR TARASENKO – JORDAN KYROU – ROBERT THOMAS | STL | F | 6 |
MATS ZUCCARELLO – RYAN HARTMAN – KIRILL KAPRIZOV | MIN | F | 6 |
TAYLOR HALL – ERIK HAULA – DAVID PASTRNAK | BOS | F | 6 |
There are some minor advanced stats to beware of, though. For one, Robertson's 17.6 SH% is a tad high, although we don't have a huge body of work from the second-year player. His secondary assist rate of 57.9% is quite high, so that number could also come down. However, Robertson already proved in his rookie season that he is a worthy of a spot in all fantasy leagues, so don't take those observations as a signal that you need to try to trade him. He just might not score at a point-per-game pace the rest of the season.
Kyrou's teammate Pavel Buchnevich was on par with Robertson as one of the highest risers, as he has been on fire with 24 points over his last 17 games. Since Buchnevich was placed in COVID protocol on Friday, I'll shift to Kyrou, who is the highest new addition to the rankings. If you weren't familiar with Kyrou before because you don't watch many St. Louis games, you sure got to know him at the Winter Classic, where he exploded for a four-point second period. The truth is that he had three points the game before, and he hasn't stopped scoring since. Kyrou is on a six-game point streak where he has racked up 12 points (5 G, 7 A).
The Blues are finding more ways to use Kyrou this season. His overall icetime has increased by over two minutes, while his power-play time has increased by nearly a minute. He has taken full advantage of that, taking nearly one more shot per game this season (2.7 SOG/GP) over last season (1.8 SOG/GP). The Blues have a deep roster, so I might be a little worried about Kyrou's deployment once Vladimir Tarasenko and David Perron return from COVID protocol. Keep in mind that this is only his second full season, so a slight decrease in icetime should only seem like a minor speedbump.
Whether it was a fluke or not, Barrie led all defensemen in points last season (48) while finishing tied for second in power-play points (23). Want to know where he ranks this season? Outside of the top 30. In fact, he's not even the top-scoring defenseman on his own team. Evan Bouchard is, and he's doing it with far less power-play time (and power-play points) than Barrie. Bouchard has 16 even-strength points (plus one shorthanded point), while Barrie has just eight even-strength points.
Not surprisingly, Barrie led all defensemen with 27 secondary assists last season, with Adam Fox the only other defenseman registering more than 20. Barrie's secondary assist percentage was significantly higher than Fox's, as about two-third of Barrie's assists were secondary. Barrie is more of a power-play specialist than all-around performer Bouchard, but if Barrie is on your roster, I'd start to worry a little that Bouchard might take over that money role on Edmonton's PP1.
Remember how high scoring the North Division was last season? Barrie was one player who seemed to rack up points at will in that division. Suzuki seemed to be another, both during the regular season and also during Montreal's Stanley Cup playoff run. Yet with the Habs now a fraction of the team they were last season, Suzuki's point totals have suffered. Although he was projected to possibly take another big step this season, he may not even be able to stay in the top 100 next month if he doesn't break the slump. Suzuki has just one point over his last eight games.
In spite of scoring at barely over a half point per game (19 points in 36 games), Suzuki actually leads the Habs in scoring. Montreal has missed Tyler Toffoli, Mike Hoffman, Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson, and Jonathan Drouin for stretches. That's a huge chunk of their scoring attack. As a result, Suzuki's linemates have been a revolving door of players. If the Canadiens can get back to health, then we could see more of the playmaking ability of Suzuki. That might have to wait until next season, as this one seems to be a writeoff for the Habs.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding