Ramblings – Four Backups with Best Chance to Steal Starting Gig, Other Goalies to Target and more (Jan 17)

Dobber

2022-01-17

The highly-anticipated Midseason Fantasy Hockey Guide was released on Friday (January 14). The only one of its kind! This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can buy it here and download it right away.

It usually has second-half projections, sometimes projecting as many as 43 games out. Well, due to all the postponements and rescheduling – this Guide projects as many as 54 games for some players! That's the most ever in 14 years of doing this. We also look at the fancy stats for each team and where things are trending, take a look at key prospects to put on your radar for a recall down the stretch, and of course all the free agents of interest in college and Europe who could help you in dynasty leagues.

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Four starts in six days for Thatcher Demko? No problem. I believe that, for many goalies, needing a break is a myth. I don't see why the 20 or 30 top goaltenders in the entire world can't play 70 games. He was given that fourth start despite losing the other three games. However, it's interesting to note that each game was statistically better than the last. His SV% for each game: 0.808, 0.850, 0.879 and then 0.939 on Sunday. His GSAA also improved with each game: -2.69, -1.22, -1.06 and then 0.94 on Sunday. These were all road games (the Canucks have played eight straight games on the road). A good starter can and should play at least 65 games, and Demko will do just that.

With Conor Garland out of the lineup (COVID protocol), the Canucks shuffled Elias Pettersson down to the Bo Horvat/Nils Hoglander line. And the move paid off. He scored on the power play, and then tallied another at even strength playing with those two. The other member of Pettersson's usual line, Vasily Podkolzin, was down to the third line with Alex Chiasson and Jason Dickinson. I'd like to see another game with that setup, even if Garland does return. If Vancouver wants to make the playoffs then they need to get Pettersson going. That's top priority. So when Garland returns, I'd slot him on the top line with JT Miller and Brock Boeser – and bump Tanner Pearson out of there.

Podkolzin played just 7:28, which was his third-lowest ice time of the entire season.

When Alex Ovechkin scored on Demko, it was the 153rd NHL goaltender that he's ever scored on. In NHL history, 6684 skaters have scored 153 or fewer goals in their entire career. And he did that if you only count one goal per goalie.

Nicklas Backstrom has points in five of six games since returning.

With TJ Oshie sidelined (day-to-day), I like what the Caps did with their lines:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
11:2421.6HAGELIN – DOWD – HATHAWAY0005362.510758.8
7:5114.9KUZNETSOV – OVECHKIN – PROTAS00041028.671531.8
7:0913.6BACKSTROM – WILSON – MCMICHAEL00030100.06366.7
4:268.4ELLER – SPRONG – LEASON0004357.18561.5
3:045.8BACKSTROM – WILSON – OVECHKIN0005183.36275.0

Seeing McMichael with Backstrom was nice. As a centerman, he has yet to really line up with a star. The closest 'star' he's played with is TJ Oshie. But never Ovechkin, nor fellow pivots Backstrom or Kuznetsov. Seven minutes with Backstrom and Wilson was a good thing. Hopefully we see more of it.

Backstrom was reunited with Ovechkin a bit in the third, as the Caps tried to come from behind. For now though, I think Coach Peter Laviolette still prefers Kuznetsov with Ovy.

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I had some requests on Twitter to dig deeper into goaltenders for the second half. There are a lot of people, as always, who need help in this area and are trying to pinpoint areas of opportunity. In a wild season like this one, the first thing I look are are games played and games left. The Islanders lead in this area, with 30 games under their belt and 52 still to be played. As it happens, Ilya Sorokin is really finding his groove, with five QS over his last six starts. Coach Barry Trotz is really sticking to his guns and maintaining defense-first and discipline, even with the Isles well out of a playoff spot. He is your top guy to target.

After NYI comes Ottawa, at 31 games played. But, even though Matt Murray has two wins in a row and 'may' have turned the corner a bit, I'm sure we can all agree that grabbing an Ottawa goalie is not going to turn your season around. And it will probably hurt it further.

From there, the games-played angle drops off – three teams have played 34, five more play 35. Tampa Bay has played 40 and Anaheim leads all teams with 41. So if you want a "sell high" recommendation, look no further than John Gibson.

If you could swing a Gibson for Alex Nedeljkovic trade (and squeeze more out of them), that would be a great deal. While Detroit isn't going to stack up the wins in the second half, frankly I don't see Anaheim doing much better (and the have fewer games left to play). Since December 10:

Nedeljkovic: 3-5-1, 2.65, 0.924, 3.878 GSAA and 66.7 QS%

So you're gonna get a losing record, but a lot of consistently good games. All season long, Ned has just one RBS. Out of 36 goalies who have played at least 15 games, Nedeljkovic is tied with Sergei Bobrovsky for the lowest RBS%. Just 3.7% of his games qualify as a Really Bad Start.

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Hot take: If I owned Darcy Kuemper I would see if I could swap him for Connor Hellebuyck. Yes, I'd be giving up five or six wins in the end. But the peripherals will be much better for Hellebuyck. Kuemper has five RBS this season – wildly inconsistent. I didn't like this Colorado signing from the beginning, but it will be glossed over by the fact that the Avs are probably the best team in the NHL. Nothing hides mediocre goaltending better than that.

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And circling back to Demko – I can see the Canucks fighting their way into the final playoff spot. In fact, I predict it. Maybe that should be my hot take. Regardless, Bruce Boudreau has a tendency to do this when he first arrives at a new team. And he's playing the shit out of Demko. So absolutely – there's a goalie I push to acquire. I would push hard as if he'll be a Top 6 or 7 own in fantasy among goalies over the next three months.

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On the other side of the coin, here are the eight worst goalies in the last month (in order)

Philipp Grubauer 0-6-2, 4.31 GAA, 0.854 SV%

James Reimer 3-3-0, 4.30, 0.875

Joonas Korpisalo 1-3-0, 3.96, 0.877

Elvis Merzlikins 3-5-1, 4.12, 0.884

Ilya Samsonov 3-3-2, 3.36 and 0.881

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Laurent Brossoit 4-2-1, 3.04, 0.880

Jacob Markstrom 2-3-1, 3.47, 0.886

Jake Oettinger 4-3-0, 3.29, 0.886

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The Oettinger mention is notable because the Stars are a team that's trying to crawl back from a slow start. With Anton Khudobin playing his way out of the league, and Oettinger now stumbling, is Braden Holtby the answer? Doubtful. He started with a few good games, but here are his stats since October 25:

4-7-1, 2.81 GAA, 0.908 SV% and -0.9810 GSAA

I think Oettinger is the long-term answer for Dallas and he's also the answer in the second half. But will he get it together soon enough to help fantasy owners? I suspect it may take him a month or two to get it figured out and settle in, and by that point it could be too late to help.

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I'm curious to see how things shake out between Linus Ullmark and Tuukka Rask. Rask is the hero. The legend. And he's obviously not rusty given his first start of the season. But Ullmark hasn't allowed more than three goals in a game since November 11. After that date, he is 10-2-0 with a 2.25 GAA and 0.925 SV%. Those are stellar numbers. And he has a 5.0400 GSAA to go with it – which means he saved five more goals than the average NHL goalie would have saved. How do you make 'that' a backup? Especially considering he gets paid $5M this year while Rask gets $1M. I wouldn't be so quick to grab Rask and assume he runs with it. I think you'll see a 50/50 split until April.

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Karel Vejmelka may have allowed five goals last game, but he has a minor-league team in front of him and they were up against the league's best offense in Colorado. In fact, I feel like Vejmelka is finally getting comfortable. In his first few games, he would be stellar and then give up a pair of goals in the third period to lose it. These last few games, that no longer seems like a certainty. Watching it, you get the sense that he'll hang on and see it through. It's just unfortunate that he has such a bad team in front of him.

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Top 4 backup goalies with the best chance to steal starting gig:

1 Ville Husso, St. Louis – the Blues will push Jordan Binnington. They need him to be their No.1 because that's what they're paying him to be and that's what they've anointed him. They'll play him against easy teams while Husso will get the Colorado games. I see it all the time. But eventually they need to see that Husso is the better goaltender.

2 Tuukka Rask, Boston – is he technically the backup? According to salary and games played: yes. So obviously he has a good chance of stealing the top gig. As I noted above though, I suspect this will go 50/50 until April.

3 Pavel Francouz, Colorado – He had a rough first start, but has been better in his last three. With consistent games I think he can steal it from Kuemper.

4 Chris Driedger, Seattle – Grubauer has been ridiculously terrible. The worst. And although Driedger's numbers aren't great, he is actually 3-4-0, 2.77 GAA and 0.916 SV% in his last eight games. He won't get a lot of wins with this team but I still think he could steal the job.

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The new Goalie Post is finally ready! Last week I was buried over my head in Midseason Guide stuff, but Michael Amato had a chance to go over it and review what needs to be added and tweaked. I'll give it a once over as well, now that the Guide is out. You can expect the new Goalie Post – with app – on your screens any day now. You'll love it. Follow me on Twitter for details and the official announcement.

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Don’t forget – early games today. Set your lineups at noon!

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
DYLAN HOLLOWAY STL
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
LUKE HUGHES N.J
MATT CORONATO CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
JOHN GIBSON ANA
JET GREAVES CBJ
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency VGK Players
22.9 KEEGAN KOLESAR WILLIAM KARLSSON TOMAS HERTL
20.3 MARK STONE VICTOR OLOFSSON JACK EICHEL
9.2 TANNER LACZYNSKI BRETT HOWDEN PAVEL DOROFEYEV

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