Saturday’s Game Picks: Goals in the Battle of Alberta

Flip Livingstone

2022-01-22

We are back, people! Apologies for the lengthy hiatus on the picks front, but we have returned with an all-new format for the degenerate gambling faithful to sink your teeth into every single Saturday.

Today, we are introducing Vlad Zorila to Saturday's Game Picks. Vlad will be making picks alongside Flip, our incumbent game picker. Going forward, we will be tracking Vlad's picks as well as Flip's. If you don't agree with one opinion, then you can lean on the other. Yet as you'll find out, both games pickers agree on what will happen in at least one of these games.

Since we last met, a lot has unfolded in the NHL which has resulted in some bizarre yet intriguing results in terms of the standings and playoff positioning. Whether it be the upstart Anaheim Ducks currently sitting only three points adrift from first place in the Pacific, the red-hot Colorado Avalanche or the absolutely ice-cold Edmonton Oilers, there really is no shortage of storylines to follow entering Saturday's board. With eight games just last night, be sure you're up early and checking in on starting netminders and lineups. You know the drill: do your research and let's get this paper. Loaded board featuring 11 games awaits, so good luck and enjoy the action.

VLAD’S PICKS

Gold Pick

Detroit Red Wings @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Predators

Let's take a look at Detroit's last five wins: 1/17 at Buffalo, 1/15 against Buffalo at home, 1/4 against San Jose at home, 12/18 against New Jersey at home and 12/14 against the Islanders at home. As of yesterday, the combined record of these four teams was 60-70-20. Notice also how four of those were played in Detroit. The Red Wings have in fact only won five games out of 19 on the road this season. Their rate of success in foreign lands is comparable to Napoleon's in Russia.

If all that wasn't enough, this will be the second game in as many days played by the Red Wings. With Thomas Greiss under the Covid protocol, either Alex Nedeljkovic will have to suit up for a second night in a row or we'll see either Calvin Pickard get called up from the taxi squad. Either way, that's not a winning scenario for Detroit. If that wasn't enough, yesterday they lost to Dallas at home and today they're flying to Nashville. That's as rough a situation as a team can be in.

Meanwhile, Nashville has lived the month of January to its fullest. They started hot with five wins in a row which were then followed by four consecutive losses, to then get a convincing win against Winnipeg on Thursday. They've been streakier than a drunk Packers fan when losing to the Lions, and I think they'll keep rolling like this until the end of the month. With Dante Fabbro being the only injury on the starting lineup, they should have a full arsenal to tear through Detroit's oddly assembled defense. Five of Nashville's players currently have above 30 points, and six of them have scored at least ten goals this season while the Red Wings are currently boasting a defensive unit filled with players either above the age of 30 or below 23. While it may be an ideal mentorship situation, it will certainly not be enough to stop the Preds at home.

Silver Pick

Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers (Over/Under 6) – Pick: Over

I only really need one line to argue this pick: Connor McDavid hasn't had a point in the past three weeks. Granted, he's only played three games during that period of time due to being bed-stricken with Covid, but it still qualifies as an anomaly in his case. For those of you wondering, yes, it's the first time he's gone pointless in three consecutive matches this season. For those of you still wondering, it only happened once last season, in early March, when playing three games against Toronto. The slump stopped at three and he racked up 11 points over the following four duels. His German sidekick is also susceptible to blow up as he's only amassed two points in his last four tallies and hasn't had a multi-point game since December 18th. Needless to say, after seven losses in a row, and two particularly embarrassing ones this past week, Edmonton should have a locker room full of rabid dogs tonight. While they face a spectacular opponent in Jacob Markstrom, even he shouldn't be able to stop the wrath of 23 oily madmen.

On the other side, if we exclude their magnificent showing against the Panthers a few nights ago, Calgary has remained unusually quiet on the scoresheet in the past few weeks. They'll be looking to build on that Florida game offensively, and what better opponent to do so against than Mikko Koskinen. The man has been nothing short of a strainer recently. He hasn't won since December 1, amassing seven losses in a row and allowing on average 4.3 goals per game during that span. With no critical injury and at least four players who seem to be headed towards the 20-goal mark this season, Calgary's offence should have a field day tonight.

Lastly but certainly not least, I can't discuss this matchup without mentioning the thrilling rivalry between these two teams who are at each other's necks every time they square off. We should get a bloodbath in Edmonton tonight. I'll be there to watch it, and I certainly hope you will too.

Bronze Pick

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders – Pick: Islanders (+1.5)

It may be too little too late for the Islanders who are competing in one of the deadliest divisions I've ever seen this year, but, for what it's worth, they seem to have figured things out in the past month. Again, January is the month where you see if your team is the real deal, so who knows? Maybe they'll be able to grind their way back to a wild card spot. The Isles have been known to cause some surprises in recent years after all.

Don't get me wrong, the Leafs are a dangerous beast boasting elite talent all across their lineup, and I would not bet on the Isles winning this matchup, but I have strong reasons to believe that they should at least keep it within a one goal difference. It's been confirmed that Petr Mrazek will be in net for Toronto. His .882 save percentage in four (very scattered) games this season is abysmal, and he gives me no reason to believe that it should turn around anytime soon. While New York doesn't boast the fiercest group of forwards, their most talented player, Mathew Barzal, has found his groove lately. After a slow start to the season, he's amassed 16 points in his last 13 games, which is impressive considering his team's ultra-defensive style of play.

Speaking of that defense, it seems to have finally found its footing again. The Islanders have gone 7-2-1 in their last ten games, during which they've kept their opponents below three goals eight out of ten times. It may be Semyon Varlamov in net instead of Ilya Sorokin, but the veteran shouldn't be underestimated since he's got a cumulative save percentage of .936 in the months of December and January so far. While it is their second game in two days, I believe the Islanders will come in confident at home after a perfect game against Arizona yesterday and will give the almighty Leafs a run for their money.

Side Bets

Montreal Canadiens @ Colorado Avalanche – Pick: Avalanche (-1.5)

Chicago Blackhawks @ Minnesota Wild – Pick: Wild

Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils (Over/under 5.5) – Pick: Over

Flip's 2021-22 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 4-4
Silver: 2-6
Bronze: 5-3

Side bets: 13-11

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Total Saturday Record: 24-24

FLIP’S PICKS

Gold Pick

Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers (Over/Under 6) – Pick: Over

Seriously, what is happening in Edmonton? Just when it looked like the organization was finally utilizing their two superstar centermen to their full potential to actually make some noise in the Western Conference, the Oilers have easily been one of the worst clubs in the league over the past handful of weeks. Yes, injuries have definitely played a factor, but did we really expect the winning to last in Oil Town when Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith are still being counted on to stop pucks with regularity?

I think not. That's one factor playing into my backing of a high-scoring game here, Edmonton really struggles to keep the puck out of its own net, allowing 3.42 goals against per game, seventh most in the NHL.

The other is the recent trends. Both of these Alberta rivals are coming off games that went well over the number, and the most-recent matchup head-to-head between Edmonton and Calgary produced seven total goals, so I think you know where I am going with this.

The Oilers need a win in the worst of ways, so I expect a big night from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl alongside what should be a very desperate Edmonton squad. Koskinen is good for at least a bad goal or two, add in some overdue McDavid magic and this one should feature plenty of scoring. Let's kick-off this return with a big Gold Pick winner. Hammer the Over 6 (or even tease the line down for an easy win) and thank me later.

Silver Pick

Montreal Canadiens @ Colorado Avalanche – Pick: Avalanche (-1.5)

While the struggles in Montreal make a lot more sense than what's going on out west with Edmonton, it doesn't make it any less ugly for Canadiens fans. As much as this Maple Leafs diehard absolutely loves to highlight the fact the Habs sit in dead last and sinking in the entire NHL with only 22 points, you can't help but feel for this club … actually scratch that last point. On a more serious note, Montreal has been dealt a pretty bad hand this season.

Major injuries to key pieces, poor coaching and front-office decisions, COVID outbreaks, you name it, the Canadiens have dealt with it all and it shows with the lackluster product on the ice.
In come the red-hot Colorado Avalanche, who currently sit as Vegas betting favorites for the Stanley Cup, and for good reason.

Colorado is absolutely cooking right now, reeling off wins in five straight and nine of its last 10 to sit pretty atop the Western Conference with 57 points. This is a classic tale of two teams going in polar opposite directions, so to really get any value here we're going to have to lay a nice bet on the puckline and take the Avs to pump the Habs by at least deuce. With Cayden Primeau and his .883 save percentage manning the blue paint tonight for Montreal, it might get ugly early in La Belle province this evening.

Let's not overthink this one. Avalanche steamroll for my Silver Pick of the week.

Bronze Pick

Arizona Coyotes @ New York Rangers – Pick: Rangers (-1.5)

Yeah, that's right, I am taking another heavy favorite. Sue me. Or, think about this logically for a second and simply collect the loot and move on.

Rangers = nasty, Coyotes = terrible. What more is there to say? OK, for starters, I really love this situational bounce-back spot for New York who is coming off a 6-3 beatdown Friday night at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes. Also, the Rangers will have number one goaltender and legitimate Vezina contender Igor Shesterkin back in net tonight after Alexandar Georgiev got pumped last night.

Shesterkin has been nothing short of sensational this season, posting an 18-4-2 record, 2.03 goals-against average, .938 save percentage and three shutouts. Sprinkle in Norris Trophy candidate Adam Fox on the backend and a lethal power-play unit that boasts the likes of Artemi Panarin and the criminally underrated Mika Zibanejad and you have a mix of players that make the Blue Shirts an extremely tough group to play against.

Other than those sharp Kachina jerseys, I really have nothing positive to say about this Arizona Coyotes group, so I am not going to say much at all for a squad that has only managed to post five wins away from home this season. Conversely, the Rangers are one of the league's best home teams, flaunting an 11-3-2 record at MSG while currently holding down second spot in a Metro Division full of killers.

Don't get it twisted, New York is very much for real. I really like this roster and this situation for a big bounce-back victory for a group looking to establish itself as a legitimate Stanley Cup threat. Rangers bang out the Coyotes by at least two goals, my Bronze Pick of the week.

Side Bets

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders – Pick: Islanders

Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks (Over/Under 6) – Pick: Over

Tampa Bay Lightning @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Lightning

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at outlets such as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @FlipLivingstone and @Flips_Picks.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
BRYAN RUST PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
JONAS JOHANSSON T.B
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYI Players
23.8 MAXIM TSYPLAKOV BO HORVAT SIMON HOLMSTROM
21.5 JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAU ANDERS LEE MATHEW BARZAL
18.4 KYLE PALMIERI BROCK NELSON ANTHONY DUCLAIR

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