Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we’re taking a look at the top candidates to win the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie. Many preseason lists had Cole Caufield at the top of this race but he has suffered along with the rest of the Montreal Canadiens. Other young stars like Quinton Byfield, Matt Boldy, and Bowen Byram have performed well in small samples but have run into injury problems. Here are the top five rookies at the midway point of the season, sorted by points per game.

Trevor Zegras, ANA

29 points in 36 games (0.81 points per game)

Many prognosticators picked Zegras as their Calder favourite, and he's right in the thick of it here in late January, three points behind the rookie scoring leader but with a slight edge in points per game. He's clearly going to be a dynamic producer at the NHL level. There's already a "Zegras effect" in keeper leagues that has seen the value of young Ducks players and prospects like Max Comtois, Jacob Perreault, Mason McTavish, and Brayden Tracey increase given their theoretical proximity to the young star center.

His production looks sustainable too: he's driving play (52.4% CF), involved in most goals scored while he's on the ice (76 IPP), getting lots of power play time and offensive zone starts (OZ%), and his shot percentage isn't outrageous. His low PDO also indicates a bit of a positive regression coming.

One thing to note is that he tends to score in spurts: he's gone scoreless in 20 of his 36 games but has 24 points in 11 multi-point games. For fantasy, that means don't panic if he doesn't hit the scoresheet for a few games; there's likely an explosion coming. If he can increase his consistency as he acclimates to the league, what exactly might his offensive ceiling be? Dobber's midseason guide has his upside at 88 points but he could conceivably become one of the rare players to push into triple digits.

Lucas Raymond, DET

32 points in 40 games (0.80 ppg)

Still only 19, Raymond is stapled to Detroit's top line and clinging to the top of the rookie scoring race. Looking at his quarterly breakdown, it's interesting to note how wildly his shot totals have fluctuated so far. Here are his shots per game over the first three quarters of the season: 2.5, 1.3, 2.2. His production has also fallen as the year has gone on: after going basically a point per game over the first 19 games (0.95 ppg), he's scored 14 points in 21 games since (0.67 ppg). Of course, even that lower pace would project to a 55-point year, which is still incredible for a rookie. But if these trends continue, his shot at the Calder could be in jeopardy as Zegras and a couple other players on this list have been coming on strong of late.

Like Zegras, Raymond's production looks sustainable—though his PDO (+27) suggests a slight regression. He's actually being sheltered even less than Zegras, consistently facing off against other teams' top players and doing extremely well in terms of driving play. Regardless of whether or not he captures the Calder, it's clear that Raymond is destined for a long, productive NHL career.

Anton Lundell, FLA

24 points in 36 games (0.67 ppg)

Speaking of coming on strong lately, Lundell has scored 12 points in his last 11 games (1.1 ppg), the other half of his points coming over the first 25 games (0.48 ppg). Florida has been absolutely lighting up other teams lately, and Lundell has obviously benefitted from that. In theory, that hot streak will die down at least somewhat as the grind towards the playoffs continues but Lundell has been fun to own over the past while.

Aside from an even higher PDO than Raymond's, his metrics also look very sustainable. Plus, his OZ% (43.4) is much lower than the other two players already profiled: while Zegras and Raymond are starting close to 60% of their shifts in the other team's zone, Lundell is more often starting out 180 feet from where he needs to score. Further, while the others are seeing consistent top-line minutes with the best players on their respective teams, Lundell has been working primarily with players like Mason Marchment, Maxim Mamin, and Frank Vatrano—with some Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe mixed in. Very little exposure to Aleksander Barkov or Jonathan Huberdeau, in other words. He's also seeing only 10% of his team's power play time. Lundell's production should only increase as he earns a bigger role and gets more time beside Florida's two superstars.

Interestingly, although Lundell was known for his strong defensive play in his draft year, he's been struggling in terms of relative Corsi so far—the worst on the team, in fact. He's also been struggling at the face off dot (44.3% win rate) and isn't shooting as much as fantasy owners would like (1.9 shots per game). But these red flags, in particular the first two, should start to iron themselves out over time. Hopefully his shot rate increases along with his role.

Moritz Seider, DET

25 points in 40 games (0.63 ppg)

It's particularly impressive that Seider, the Red Wings' other super-rookie, is hanging at the top of the rookie scoring race given that he's a defenseman. Unlike the three forwards profiled above, he's also already a complete beast in multi-category formats. Check out his per game stats: 1.95 shots, 1.5 hits, 1.78 blocks on top of scoring at a 50-point pace. Only 40 games into his career and this dude's already creeping into Darnell Nurse territory!

There was a lot of speculation before Seider made his NHL debut about whether he or Filip Hronek would get the lion's share of Detroit's power-play time. Well, now that the dust has somewhat settled, the percentage favours Seider (62% to Hronek's 41%). The fact that the rookie has 10 PPP to Hronek's 5 also demonstrates that he's doing well with it, though Hronek is involved in a higher percentage of power-play points scored with him on the ice (83% to Seider's 67%). All that to say that both defensemen are studs and can clearly co-exist on this increasingly exciting Red Wings team.

Red flags? None. Aside from a low OZ%, which suggests that could end up being sucked into all-around usage like Ivan Provorov, he's looking a lot like a young Shea Weber: great play-driving numbers, top-notch scoring, and excellent peripherals.

Tanner Jeannot, NAS

25 points in 42 games (0.60 ppg)

If you asked the average hockey fan who was fifth in rookie scoring right now, you might hear names like Dawson Mercer, Seth Jarvis, or Cole Perfetti. But wouldn't ya know, it's Tanner Jeannot.

Jeannot doesn't profile like any of the other forwards listed above: his metrics suggest regression and he's essentially a highly successful bottom-six banger type. But wow has he come out of nowhere to become a dominant fantasy asset this year. On top of scoring at a 50-point pace, he's averaged almost 3.5 hits and a minor penalty every single game this year. His stat line is very Tom Wilson-esque, but Wilson is a known commodity who was drafted 133rd overall on average in Fantrax leagues. Jeannot was drafted 535th.

That was the good. Now here’s the bad: he sees very little power-play time, doesn’t get many offensive zone starts, has a shooting percentage north of 20%, and has been pretty lucky so far (1030 PDO). He’s played all year on a checking line with Yakov Trenin and Colton Sissons and they have struggled to drive play as a unit.

At the same time, we only have a small sample size to work with, but Jeannot did have an identical shooting percentage last year, which suggests he scores most of his goals around the crease. That means his scoring rate is more sustainable than if he had been sniping from further out. Another positive sign is his sky-high IPP of 80.6. He’s clearly the play driver on his line in that the offence they’re generating mostly flows through him.

Jeannot isn’t a serious threat to win the Calder, but he is becoming an intriguing fantasy unicorn, one of these rare forwards that can provide decent scoring while helping you stuff the Hits and PIMs categories. It’ll be interesting watching his usage moving forward: if he ever ends up in Nashville’s top six, his numbers would look even more like a Tom Wilson clone.

Honorable Mentions

Michael Bunting, TOR

24 points in 37 games (0.65 ppg)

Bowen Byram, COL

11 points in 18 games (0.61 ppg)

Seth Jarvis, CAR

16 points in 27 games (0.59 ppg)

Dawson Mercer, NJD

20 points in 38 games (0.53 ppg)

Jonathan Dahlen, SJS

16 points in 36 games (0.44 ppg)

Jamie Drysdale, ANA

17 points in 42 games (0.40 ppg)

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